FDC AND WHY POLITICS IS NOT A TEA PARTY

In the 1985 Wimbledon tennis championships opponents of German teen sensation Boris Becker complained that at the changeovers he tended to bump into them and generally not give way. When the complaint was raised with his manager the bearish Ion Tiriac his reply was “This is not a tea party”

In the last two weeks differences within the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) that have been festering under the surface for years came into public view. The boil burst this week spewing out its fetid contents for all to see...

Like in the body, this should be a good thing, as the toxic contents of the boil may have gone on to infect other parts of the body if it had not oozed out.

For us on the sidelines of the action, it looks like an internal dispute that erupted but had to be aired out for progress to be made for better or for worse.  But we do not put it past the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) to have lanced the boil open.

Beyond this being a natural progression of development anyone who has been watching the FDC from its inception and even before when it was the pressure group Reform Agenda should not be surprised.

There are many reasons things are unfolding the way they are but two jump to mind.

Like with most political organisations FDC was founded on the personality of the Dr Kizza Besigye. Following his run for the presidency in 2001 the consensus was that he was still the one who could go toe to toe with President Yoweri Museveni in the polls. This was in 2005 just before the 2006 elections, which saw the return of multi-party elections to Uganda.

"When Besigye stepped down as party president in 2011, it was always going to be an uphill task to find a leader of similar global appeal. In addition, Besigye never went away. He hovered around Najjanankumbi like a bad smell, making it impossible for his successor Major General Mugisha Muntu to stamp his authority on the leading opposition party. Mugisha Muntu’s successor has fared no better, ceding the leadership of the opposition to Robert Kyagulanyi in the process.

Besigye has argued of course that there is no time/term limit in the struggle to remove Museveni, which makes sense, but one can see how his shadow remains a problem in FDC.

Given that he has been there from the start it would be unrealistic to expect Besigye be an indifferent observer to the goings on.

The second issue which is related to the first is the long-term dominance of the political scene by the NRM in general but Museveni in particular.

Just as at Wimbledon politics is not a tea party. Any ruling party worth its salt will be monitoring the opposition and looking to counter any maneuvers they maybe making. Spreading dissension in the enemy ranks is legitimate political tactics, never mind what the moralists say. Both factions in FDC accuse the other of receiving financial aid from the NRM. I believe them, both.

Beyond that the example of Museveni at the helm of the NRM for decades is causing much discomfort in the opposition. The opposition feel some moral pressure to show they are different from the NRM, to have term limits for their leaders,  which is good for the optics but does not allow anyone to gather momentum and pose a potent threat to Museveni. No sooner has leader gained traction than he has to step aside for “good governance”.

The challenge with this therefore is that every so often there is jostling for position in opposition parties, each contest factionalising and disenfranchising members, weakening them meaning they find it hard to present a united front to the public. FDC suffered this in 2016 and again in 2021.

It is no tea party in the opposition, especially with Museveni pulling the strings across the road. It means there will be no smash and grab rush for the leadership in Uganda. That the road to statehouse – whatever the politicians tell their minions will always be a marathon and not a sprint.

Given the internal tension in opposition parties time is not something they have in any meaningful supply. Their fragility is exposed with the passing of time, more so than with the NRM.

Ideally all political actors should be working towards creating a robust and an enduring democracy. But politics is about the attaining and retaining of power, which often plays counter to the development of democracy. This is the brutal honest truth about politics.

But it is also why democracy is not an event but an evolution. Believe it or not the natural progression is towards individual freedom which is democracy. The nature of each country’s democracy is determined by how they resolve the contestation between the ruling party and the opposition.

The fracas in FDC is excruciatingly painful for those involved but seen against the greater schemes of things and inevitable occurrence in the progress towards democracy.

 

RUTO KENYA VICTORY A LESSON FOR AFRICA OPPOSITION

William Ruto this week upset the apple cart, beating Raila Odinga to become the fifth president of the Republic of Kenya.

"It was always going to be a strange race, but the conventional wisdom did not allow for a Ruto victory...

Ruto has deputized President Uhuru Kenyatta for the last ten years, an alliance which in itself was an unlikely one at the time it was forged. Both men stalked by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for their alleged involvement in post-election violence in 2007 where they were in opposite camps, came together to beat Odinga in 2012.

After winning a second term in office in 2017 the two men fell out spectacularly, which laid to Uhuru backing the opposition candidate Odinga against his own deputy in the just concluded race, making Odinga the establishment candidate, a role that did not seat well on the perennial challenger. This was Odinga’s fifth attempt at Kenya’s topmost office, a 25-year odyssey that has always ended in tears.

So Ruto the deputy president was the opposition candidate. You will be forgiven the cognitive dissonance.

The accepted wisdom is, being in opposition means that you cannot leverage the government’s infrastructure to drum up support. Being in opposition means your agents will be harassed like stray dogs at every turn. And the ace in the hole is that if you are in opposition, you have no chance to “influence” the result if it is not to your liking.

Nearly 60 years of unbroken electoral practice in Kenya means that the opposition have sued for and won some space to maneuver, so their fate is not as dire as some of their counterparts in the region. But that space has been paid for with blood, sweat and tears over at least half a century. Odinga, who was at the forefront of fighting then president Daniel arap Moi to open the space for multi-party democracy has been exiled, detained, teargassed, seen his friends impoverished, maimed and killed, suffering any number of indignities in the process....

But to take advantage of that crack in the door, required the skills and will of a political operator like Ruto.

From his first parliamentary victory, where he beat Moi’s favoured candidate in 1997, Ruto has shown himself to be a meticulous organizer. In this election in particular, his pinching of the Kikuyu vote – the country’s most populous tribe, from under the nose of the Kenyatta backed campaign was the game changer. That did not happen by mistake.

Ruto was not only battling the state apparatus but also the media – official and independent, were unashamedly rooting for the Odinga campaign. They as shellshocked as the establishment at the turn of events. They say when perception comes up against fact, perception wins all the time. Ruto has shown otherwise.

The media harped on his vast wealth as a sign he was corrupt, in a country where you cannot spit without hitting a corrupt official in the eye.

Ruto’s campaign while making the expected denials nevertheless worked hard to position the candidate – the chief hustler, as one of them and not one of the entitled political dynasties, which themselves have a lot of unexplained wealth hanging loosely on their persons.

|"Ruto’s ability as a challenger to go toe-to-toe with Raila in every constituency except in Odinga’s Nyanza province backyard is a function of his organizational capacity. On the flip side the are stories of how Odinga’s campaign was shambolic, suggesting they were complacent.

Some will argue that Ruto is a rich man and therefore has the resources to splurge on his campaign, but who is richer than the state? And haven’t we seen people with money being beaten in elections by lesser advantaged opponents in constituencies around the country?

So the Ruto campaign in its own strange way has powerful lessons for the opposition on the continent. One, that wrestling power from the status quo is a process not an event. Ruto leveraged on the gains won by the opposition to make the electoral process in Kenya more transparent to win.

Secondly, that regardless of how disenchanted the population is, organisation that shows the opposition as a worthy alternative is critical. In the end people are not foolish, they vote their interests and in the face of great uncertainty, vote the status quo either physically or by staying away from the ballot.

And eventually the cause has to have a champion who is not only credible but can stick on message. Despite massive provocation for Ruto to lash out and validate the narrative the Odinga allies had drawn around him as an impulsive, violent and even callous operator, he remained largely calm and did not allow the bad press to stick.

The Odinga camp has threatened to appeal to the court as is their right, which if they do will only improve the democratic space in Kenya. But for now, Ruto is the toast of the town and its hard to begrudge him his victory.

 

 

 

OUR SECURITY IS TOO IMPORTANT TO BE LEFT TO THE POLICE

On the night of July 11, 2010 two bombs were set off at Kyadondo Rugby grounds and the Ethiopian Village in Kabalagala, leading to the death of 76 and injuring dozens more, in the worst terror attack in Kampala.

Six years later, then high court Judge Owiny Dollo convicted 13 people for the attacks. During the trial a conspiracy that stretched from Ahghanistan to Somalia, that roped in Kenyan and Tanzanian accomplices was uncovered.

Three bombs were meant to go off that night, but one in Makindye malfunctioned and was discovered in an abandoned bag by staff the next day. The two that went off were detonated by suspected Somali suicide bombers.

That was the last we heard about suicide bombers in Uganda, until three weeks ago when one Matovu Muzafari blew himself up and killed one other passenger, travelling in bus heading west on the Kampala-Masaka road.

"At the risk of understating the obvious, signing up to be a suicide bomber is not for the faint hearted...

. From what is known suicide bombers are often young, and their trainers have exploited some past injustice against them or their families to brainwash them into giving up their lives for a cause. So the Muzarafi incident threw up some interesting questions. Had we started breeding our own suicide bombers?

The Tuesday attacks seemed to confirm that. Seen on CCTV camera one bomber, with a backpack was seen walking past the entrance to the Central Police Station (CPS) before he is engulfed in a orange ball of flame and smoke. The second bomber was seen riding up parliament avenue towards parliament before he and his boda rider exploded.

"By definition, no one knows how a suicide bomber behaves before he presses the button. But security minster Major General Jim Muhwezi suggested the bombers may have been unknowing accomplices to the crime. Using the CPS bomber as an example Muhwezi said he was on the phone when the blast went off, his body language suggesting he was still moving on to another destination. 

In the earlier case on the bus it was reported that Muzarafi’s accomplice Nsubuga Muhammad, alighted from the bus minutes before the bomb blast. In hindsight Muzarafi may have been oblivious to his eventual mission and that Nsubuga may have detonated his bomb remotely. We will not know for sure as Nsubuga was killed soon after by security agents.

Given our experience, where suicide bombers have been the most lethal, it should bring some relief that we may not have suicide bomber cells in Uganda.

That being said, if we needed any confirmation that security issues cannot be left to the security agents, this week was it.

The attackers live among us and they can attack at any time of the day or night. It may be added that previous bob attacks were during the night but possibly because the curfew restrictions the bombers have decided there are not enough targets at night.

Now not only should be on the lookout for luggage left unattended but also for unusual behavior from our neighbours and desist from helping carrying unknown luggage around.

The village councils need to be reactivated. They need know who all the residents in their areas are, where there have come from and other relevant details.

"The point is personal vigilance is more important than ever. The war is being brought to our doorsteps...

The police are pointing at the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and this too is interesting. In the 1999 spate of bombings in Kampala the story was that the ADF, under pressure in their bases in the Rwenzori mountains were hoping to divert security attention from operations in western Uganda.

These attacks may suggest the ADF are suffering unwanted pressure in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) bases and these attacks it is hoped can ease their pain.

Stay safe!

BOOK REVIEW: MUSEVENI'S UGANDA; A LEGACY FOR THE AGES

The House that Museveni Built: How Yoweri Museveni’s Vision Continues to Shape Uganda

By Paul Busharizi

 On sale HERE on Amazon (e-book)                                    

326 pages

Guest writer: David Sseppuuya

 

Paul Busharizi is onto something here. Longevity in power or an extended stint on the throne will, invariably, impact a nation for generations, for better or for worse. They still talk about the Victorian Era in Great Britain, as they do of the Thatcherite years of that country’s more modern construct. There are still reflections of Stalinism in the Russian mirror today, as there is a large Mobutu imprint on all aspects of Congolese life, whether personal flamboyance or wastage of great natural wealth or hedonistic lifestyles. Pope John Paul II’s philosophy defines much of what the Roman Catholic Church will be for the foreseeable future, as will Robert Mugabe’s legacy, within and without Zimbabwe’s borders.

In the final analysis, the weighting of long rule tends to present either of two verdicts: good or bad. Or could there be a halfway point, a job half done, as the cover of ‘The House that Museveni Built’ can be interpreted?

Is this a fly-on-the-wall account, or a bird’s eye view of an observer of society, as journalists like to self-identify? Media professionals are privy to, and are privileged to be receptacles of, many goings on in the upper echelons of society, and in this book there is the odd nugget to reflect this. As Busharizi confesses, ‘The House that Museveni Built’ was not intended to be a comprehensive account of the Uganda Museveni has forged, but more the way he has seen the country change during his time as a journalist, what he calls the “interplay of politics, economics and culture that was happening and its influence on events.”

This book is a compilation of articles and commentaries published over a decade, which gives it a panoramic view. Written in real time, they have the authentic feel of that journalistic self-description of “observer of society”. But that also means that they lack the hind view perspective that the historian has, a challenge that is mitigated by the use of footnotes.

Busharizi makes a scythe through Uganda’s politics (electoral and governance), geopolitics (regional and global), economy (trade, business and development economics), and society (people, places and institutions) by way of commentaries penned independently with the macrobian rule of Yoweri Museveni, 35 years and counting, providing the spine.

Arguably Uganda’s leading business journalist of the last 20 years, the 2000s, Busharizi’s strength and bias creeps through. If the lay of the book is the topical subdivisions, he is at his best with matters business and economic, opining with knowledge and authority on subjects as varied as the Human Development Index, the Ten Point Programme, the Bretton Woods Structural Adjustment Programme, national debt, ‘nseenene’ trade, and procurement protocols. It is little wonder, then, that at The New Vision he gravitated from the Society Desk to the Business Desk and even had a stint with Reuters, the global business news beast, as Uganda Correspondent.

 The book serves as a public journal of sorts, flagging important national developments, seen through individual players, events, patterns and trends. Others are landmark events in the lives of personalities and the effect they have on the communities and systems they are a part of. Being topical, as opposed to chronological, gives the book a dynamism often lacking in memoirs, though it is not a memoir in the strict sense of the genre.

A special strength is the occasional parallel drawn with other societies, indicative of the observant and informed professionalism that made Busharizi such a valuable asset in a knowledge environment that the newsroom is (this reviewer was his first editor when young Busharizi was still at university, quite a while back). He, for instance, cites the contrasting political leaderships of the US and the UK, the former based on personality, the latter on party machinery and society’s appreciation of a party’s positions. In analysing the staying power of top leadership, parallels are then drawn with Uganda’s ruling NRM and the opposition party, the FDC.

However each piece being a reprint of the observations penned in the immediacy of their occurrence means that there is little or no benefit of wholesome analysis. Footnotes help mitigate this.

In his musings, Busharizi makes observations such as, “The NRM, forged in the heat of the Luwero triangle and moulded into a multi-million-person organization since 1986, has made itself indispensable for anyone who has serious political aspirations in this country”. This was noted on the eve of Christmas 2014, a point in Uganda’s political history when post-1986 personalities Patrick Amama Mbabazi and David Sejusa flirted with opposition from within the NRM. It is a succinct observation, penned under the headline ‘Only Fools Don’t Change Their Minds’ that embodies the kinetics of the politics of NRM/Uganda under the leadership of Museveni.

Like that account, many of the entries are microcosms of the dynamics of Ugandan society. Take electoral politics and the never-ending popularity contests that are endemic to the governance of nations: Museveni has been good at courting the female half of the population, making many policies that advance the cause of the woman. There are the earlier policies like women representation in Parliament and affirmative action in university enrolment, which have been around for so long that many probably take them for granted. But in his political astuteness Museveni keeps renewing his appeal to that demographic: Busharizi notes that the 2021 appointment of female leaders to the Vice Presidency and the Prime Minister’s seat, two of the top three political offices, combined with the appointment of women in four out of ten ministerial positions, was more a strategic move and less of grandstanding.

 

The book does not have much of Museveni the personality; rather, as the title proposes, it is more of commentary on the systems and functionalities of the construct that is Uganda under his leadership.

Busharizi is neither an apologist nor a rabid opponent of Museveni or the political status quo, dispositions that lend credence to his analyses and observations. He therefore comes through as a credible exponent of that critical journalism ethic of being disinterested but not uninterested. Disinterest plays out in admirable levels of objectivity, while not being uninterested manifests in real passion for Uganda. The 9 February 2021 entry typifies this: in the wake of NRM’s electoral victory, secured in an environment of a Covid-emasculated economy, he criticises the bloated Parliament of 520 representatives, not with emotion as many regime critics tend to do, but by making this objective observation: “History shows that among the main reasons for economic collapse is when countries starve or eliminate the productive sectors of resources in favour of consumers. When MPs get sh165b for cars to whizz around the country, sectors like tourism – our largest foreign exchange earner, have been allocated sh176b in the 2021/22 budget….. when your incomes are falling you have to cut your expenses, but clearly not in Uganda. It would be funny if it was not frightening.” Few would dispute that perceptive remark, whatever their political leanings.

 

This collection of reflections will serve as a small but significant record of Uganda’s political and economic history, observed and penned in real time. It is a truism that newspapers are the first rough draft of history. This is a well-crafted draft, a worthy contribution to that point in future when the Museveni years are evaluated with the benefit of hindsight.

‘The House that Museveni Built’ will be published online on October 9, 2021

dsseppuuya@yahoo.com

Twitter @DavidSseppuuya 

                                            

 

 

NRM CEMENTING THE WOMEN VOTE

By the time of writing this parliament was in its final day of approving President Yoweri Museveni’s 80- person cabinet.

This cabinet will prove a landmark in coming years especially because we have women filling in the positions of vice president and prime minster, Jessica Alupo and Robinah Nabbanja but also because women booked  four in ten of the ministerial positions, a first in Uganda’s history.

This is a high point in women’s politics, which while we had women ministers in previous governments, the flood gates of women ministers were flung open in the last 35 years.

The critics of the NRM would not like to hear that, and for good reason.

Historically, not only in Uganda, patrilineal society has shut women out of politics. That is why in the 21st century the US is celebrating their first female vice president.

The nature of the NRM’s bush war however made it impossible to ignore the women’s contribution and hence rig politics to ensure they got a place at the table.

When you are in guerilla struggle it is literally all hands on deck, every body counts, you do not have the luxury of recruiting only men in your ranks. Women finding themselves in the rebel ranks would have been dead weight weren’t they able to make themselves useful.

Secondly,

in order to swell its ranks when it came out of the bush, the NRM sought to incorporate groups previously marginalised...

In 1989 the NRM introduced the women’s female district representative position which added a 39 new seats to the National Resistance Council (NRC), the parliament of the time.

While some people criticised this as tokenism, the  women saw it as a foot in a door and have guarded it jealously ever since.

Other initiatives like the affirmative action for women joining university, has ensured that there is a continuous pipeline of women into politics.

As a result, a female politician does not draw double takes from a population who now see women as real contenders in politics.

And why the critics of the NRM do not like this, the ruling NRM has all the cards in its pocket. It can do some political grandstanding by appointing women to cabinet, has the most district women MPs and can appoint women to any number of high offices in government, the opposition does not have as much leeway. 

"The double benefit to the NRM too, is that most women appointed have performed well, even when more has been expected of them than their male colleagues... .

So its very easy for the NRM to portray itself as the champion of the women vote.

Against the background of the NRM’s dismal performance in the Buganda region in the last election, you can see how the importance of women constituency almost overnight.

The political calculation is that by elevating women to positions of authority, women around the country may see the NRM as the only party that can speak to their issues, if not fully but better than the others.

And its not that NRM has been a good benefactor, in private many women think they are just being used, but its that the ruling party has given them a real chance of effecting change. While the sexists may see it as window dressing, they underestimate the power of example and the possibilities opened up to the millions of young girls around the country in seeing women in power.

Beyond the opposition being unable to make such high profile appointments,

"this political sleight of hand speaks to two political acts we are holding our breaths for – the 2026 presidential elections and the Museveni succession issue....

For the second, the constitution is clear that in the event the president can not carry on, the vice president can takes his place. This may take added importance because no one thought Edward Sekandi had a chance of ascending to the helm of Ugandan politics. Whether Alupo has a chance or not, is less about her and more about the women’s lobby who would be easier to mobilise nationwide than any other constituency tribal or religious. The example of Tanzania’s female Samia Suluhuh Hassan is useful, but not as powerful as the thinking, now ingrained in Uganda that women can get the job done.

As for the 2026 presidential elections, what this cabinet list may very well show in coming years is that the NRM and Museveni in particular may have caught a second wind. 

Assuming the now powerful women execute their duties to the letter, not only will the NRM benefit from a job well done and hence ride on the success of these women but there will always be a feeling that the NRM will al ways do right by them.

Of course the NRM need be aware that when you give them an inch they will take a mile.

"The women of Uganda will not settle for a reversion to the old ways they will always expect to be represented meaningfully at the high table of this country’s politics, as is their right as the more populous of the genders...

Barring any disasters this cabinet may have sealed the 2026 presidential election.

RACE FOR THE SPEAKERSHIP TO END IN A PHOTOFINISH

The decision or non-decision by the ruling party’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) not to name the party’s choice for  the race for speaker earlier this week, was the shot heard around the world.

Two term speaker Rebecca Kadaga  wants to retain her place and her deputy Jacob Oulanya wants to unseat her. Both are members of NRM’s CEC.

CEC passed the buck to the parliamentary caucus to decide who between the two, will be its champion in the race for speaker.

"On the one hand the move may signal a vote of no-confidence in Kadaga, who has not endeared herself to the party’s apex body, by declaring they have no business deciding who will be speaker....

On the other hand, it may be that CEC is not convinced by Oulanyah’s bid, or not convinced enough to throw their fellow veteran under the bus.

A few weeks ago a discussion on Urban TV’s Cross Fire show concluded that the open campaigning by the two, which President Yoweri Museveni put a stop to, was playing to the CEC gallery. That CEC would decide and that the new MPs were not the target market for the acrimonious campaign.

Now CEC has thrown all those calculations out the window.

But prior to the CEC decision Prime Minister Ruhakana Ruganda wrote to parliament asking that the elections, which were supposed to happen today be pushed back. His argument was that the NRM MPs needed time to caucus and decide on the matter.

This serves as a good show of democracy, after all why should CEC be deciding for MPs who will lead the house.

"But if the NRM was behind Kadaga they would need no time to send out the signal that Kadaga is their favourite....

The need for time suggests there is still more work to be done whipping some MPs into line. The former chief whip Ruth Nankabirwa, for who there is no love lost with Kadaga, lost her seat and that gap will be felt in coming days as someone else is chosen to keep NRM MPs in line.

The NRM’s chosen one will most definitely be the next speaker of parliament. 

In the 529-member house the NRM has 336 or about 63 percent of the seats. The vote for the speaker is decided by simple majority, so they already have the numbers. And if there is any doubt there are the NRM-leaning independents who are most of the 74 Independents in the house.

Of course, you can expect that the opposition MPs will gladly vote for an alternative NRM candidate as a way to spread dissension in the ruling party’s ranks but its doubtful that they can make an impression on the proceedings.

The stakes are understandbly high for Kadaga and Oulanyah. 

Kadaga has made it clear that there is no other position in government that can appease her, she will take the speakership or nothing.

"After two decades in the speaker’s office – she deputised Edward Sekandi for two terms, It would take some getting used to warming the back bench and living without the influence of the speaker’s office....

While in Oulayah’s case, to fail to become speaker may mean another stint in the political wilderness.

Oulanya’s ill advised leading of the no-hope Aggrey Awori presidential bid of 2001 set his political ambitions back. Joining the NRM and  encouraging the perception that he engineered the north’s cold shouldering of the opposition in favour of Museveni, suggested it was only upwards and onwards for his political career.    

Hovering over the debate is Museveni who has not come out openly in either candidate’s favour, but for who, the person who occupies the speaker’s seat is critical for his government.

A cooperative speaker and by extension a pliant parliament is good for him.

Nevertheless the race looks too close to call. 

"The NRM doyens may want to sway the vote one way, but if not properly induced, the rank and file have shown a disturbing propensity to vote the other way...

The antagonists must be biting their nails down to the quick and spending sleepless nights with their strategists, but for the rest of us mere mortals we are rubbing our palms in glee in anticipation of high drama next week.

WHAT CAN WE SAY ABOUT JOHN POMBE MAGUFULI

Former President John Pombe Magufuli breathed his last on Wednesday evening.

His death was an exclamation mark on the last few days, when he had been uncharacteristically out of the public eye. Speculation had been rife that he had contracted Covid-19 and, depending on who you listened to, he was already comatose, shuttling frenetically between Tanzania, Kenya and India to save his life or dead altogether.

The official version is that he died of cardiac arrest.

"In death as in life the man known as the bulldozer –  lovingly or with dread, sharply divided opinion....

Little known is that after his A-level he trained as a science teacher, before he upgraded to a degree and eventually earning in doctorate in chemistry in 2009.

He jumped into politics in 1995 and before he ascended to the presidency he served as transport and works minister, where he earned the moniker “The bulldozer”. His emphasis on infrastructure development as president was obviously influenced by his work in the ministry. Magufuli is credited with pushing projects such as the development of the Standard Gauge Railway, expansion of the Dar es Salaam port, the liquefied natural gas plant among others. His place in Uganda’s history is cemented if only because he was keen that the Hoima-Tanga oil pipeline get off the ground quickly. He openly expressed impatience with Ugandan bureaucracy, whose lackadaisical attitude he could not wrap his mind around, as he had almost absolute power to implement projects in his own country.

His urgency to develop Tanzania’s infrastructure however, contradicted his perceived skepticism about the East African Community, which while he signed up to all the protocols, his government actively discouraged exports from Kenya and Uganda and made working in Tanzania hostile for workers from the region, despite efforts to free the movement of labour around the EAC.

The last part was an understandable reaction from a country, which many years ago under Julius Nyerere took the step to have all their education carried out in Kiswahili. This has hobbled their workforce, making them uncompetitive against their English speaking counterparts in the region. This policy, while it ringfenced jobs for Tanzanian citizens, is unproductive in the long run as it will affect investment into the giant east African nation. The saving grace for Tanzania, maybe that it is so well endowed with natural resources they can write their own check—for now.

Magufuli was voted President of Tanzania in 2015 and quickly captured the public imagination with his campaign against runaway public spending and official corruption. He was not averse to making spot inspections of schools, hospitals and other public institutions, asking hard questions and firing officials on the spot when they waffled and whittled under his withering gaze. The public loved it. He was just the man to fire up Tanzania’s famously sleepy bureaucracy.

Through sheer force of character Magufuli got the public servants, some would say, to accomplish more in terms of public works, in his first term as president than was achieved under previous administrations.

Obviously he stepped on many toes along the way, especially entrenched interest groups that had enjoyed and profited from the status quo.

But the emperor had feet of clay.

Magufuli’s doggedness in trying to lift Tanzania up from the boot straps required an unwavering conviction in his own beliefs and that seemed to work for other things.

Last year the covid-19 pandemic broke out, sweeping from Asia into Europe and the Americas leaving a trail of illness and death in its wake.

As countries scrambled to contain the spread by instituting restrictions on travel and congregation, Magufuli emerged as one of the biggest denialists of the pandemic. He spurned the standard operating procedures promoted to slow the disease spread – washing hands, wearing masks, social distancing and rejected calls to lockdown his country. Tanzania stopped reporting the number of victims and deaths due to Covid-19 in April last year. He went further and declared that Tanzania was Covid-free when neighbouring countries were beginning to report an uptick of cases.  

It will remain a mystery how a scientist, albeit former seminarian, could ignore all the evidence about Covid-19 and choose a contrary path, but whose negative after effects will resound through Tanzania’s history.

Since the beginning of this year some high profile people have died of Covid, like Seif Sharif Hamad, Zanzibar’s first vice-president and it was becoming harder to sweep the situation under the carpet.

As one of his last public pronouncements at the end of February Magufuli conceded that there may be a problem and urged Tanzanians to wear masks, for him it may have been too little too late.

ANOTHER UGANDA POLITICAL LEADER LETTING DEMOCRACY DOWN

When facing an adversary who has captured the high ground and is entrenched, it is suicidal to try a full on frontal attack.

With much fewer forces than you, the enemy can defend his position, costing you a lot in life, ammunition and morale. Bombardment from the air or below may help obliterate him, but that is conditional on you having the requisite capacity – airplanes and artillery. If you are considerably weaker and lacking in capacity these are out of the question and you will be better served trying to lay siege wait him out, starve the enemy out, disperse their fire power by attacking on several fronts or infiltrate some of your people behind their lines. The military experts will explain better.

As in war so is life.

Former presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi this week formally served notice that he is withdrawing his petition to overturn the results of the 2021 presidential election. In his sworn affidavit Kyagulanyi says he doubts the impartiality of the court, complains that his witnesses are being harassed and that his home detention has hampered his capacity to put up a credible challenge.

Previously

"the National Unity Platform (NUP) has insisted they have incontrovertible evidence that the election was rigged and that their leader was the rightful president of Uganda. They have now decided to take their evidence to the court of public opinion, where they think they will get a more sympathetic ear....

From the beginning, this column didn’t give Kyagulanyi much chance at outright victory. This conviction was sealed when the Electoral Commission (EC) announced that of the 18,500-plus nominees up and down the political system, the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) had more than 18,000 nominees. This was an important revelation because these are the foot soldiers whose influence is then converted into support for the presidential candidates. No footsoldiers, No chance.

These are not the movies where John Rambo or Arnold Schwarzenegger single handedly take on a tank division.  It is like going up against European Champions league champions Bayern Munich short by seven players.

There are some miracles that just don’t happen.

That being said NUP’s sweeping of central Uganda and Busoga was impressive and probably beat even the party’s leadership expectations. Beth is as it may, it was stretch to extrapolate this into a national win.

We waited with baited breath for the evidence the Kyagulanyi camp would adduce to support their challenge.

With the withdrawal from the petition we missed that opportunity to one, have the supreme court rule on it and secondly, for us mere mortals to hear this evidence and make up our own minds. If Kyagulanyi’s withdrawal from the appeal is allowed by the court this will be a missed opportunity.

"The value of appealing against the election – win or lose, is that the supreme court would rule on the process, which ruling would set important legal precedents as well as feed into future electoral reforms. While this is not as sexy as having the supreme court overturning the result, such rulings is how societies or democracies are built....

This column has previously expressed disappointment at Besigye refusing to challenge the election before court for the same reasons.

This refusal by Kyagulanyi to pursue his case is selfish. It tells us like with Besigye, what matters is whether they win or not and to hell with the larger picture.

"Appealing to the court of public opinion is grandstanding, it serves little to advance society. Public opinion is fickle – an indiscrete clergyman or a US battleship docked in Mombasa or Liverpool FC’s slumping ways, easily sway attention from the serious issue of how our country is governed...

To go to court is to put your grievances on paper, saved for posterity, so future generations can look back and see what we did or did not do. I think future generations will take a very dim view of the current goings on.

One of the reasons African civilization has been overrun by lesser versions, has a lot to do with us relying on oral tradition. Try relaying a story down the line and see how after several reiterations the story will have changed beyond recognition. Not a good way to advance society. And hence the importance of the appeal.