Wednesday, July 9, 2025

THE ROAD TO UGANDA'S PROSPERITY IS PAVED

In Kikaaya, a bustling neighborhood on the northern edge of Kampala, Jack’s life tells a story of transformation.

Ten years ago, Jack, a 45-year-old fruit vendor, navigated a dusty, pothole-riddled path to sell his mangoes and bananas at the local market. The journey was grueling with mud-caked shoes in the rainy season and broken axles on his borrowed bicycle.

“I lost half my stock some days,” Jack recalls, shaking his head. “The road was my enemy.”

Then, in 2015, a paved road sliced through Kikaaya, funded by the Uganda National Roads Authority. Today, Jack’s bicycle is replaced by a boda-boda, his market trips take 20 minutes, and his daily earnings have doubled.

His story isn’t just personal—it’s a window into the profound return on investment (ROI) that paved roads bring to Uganda’s communities.

Jack’s experience mirrors a broader truth: roads are the arteries of Uganda’s economy, carrying 95% percent of freight and 99  percent  of passenger traffic, contributing three percent to our GDP.

But what’s the real economic payoff of paving a kilometer of road? Beyond the tar and gravel, the numbers tell a compelling story of growth, opportunity, and challenges we must confront.

Building a kilometer of paved road in Uganda isn’t cheap. A standard two-lane road costs around $1 million, though prices can balloon to $9.3 million for expressways like Kampala-Entebbe. Terrain, materials, and labor drive these costs, with hilly areas or high-quality asphalt pushing budgets higher.

Maintenance adds another layer—unpaved roads bleed $7,971–$9,165 annually per kilometer, while paved ones, though more durable, demand periodic rehabilitation over their 15-year lifespan.

For Jack, the paved road in Kikaaya meant fewer repair costs for his transport and more reliable deliveries, but the upfront price tag raises a question: is it worth it?

The answer lies in the benefits, both tangible and intangible. Economically, paved roads are game-changers. The OECD estimates infrastructure improvements in Africa can boost GDP growth by 2.2 percent annually.

In Kikaaya, the paved road slashed transport times, cutting fuel and vehicle maintenance costs by 30–50 percent by some estimates. For Jack, this meant lower prices for his customers and higher profits for him.

Across a district, a single kilometer of road serving a region with a $10 million GDP could generate $220,000 in annual economic activity. Add in transport savings of $50,000–$100,000 per kilometer, and the economic ripple effect is clear.

But the ROI isn’t just about dollars and cents.

Social benefits are equally transformative. In Kikaaya, the paved road brought a health center within reach. “My daughter got malaria last year,” Jack says. “Before the road, I’d have carried her on my back for hours. Now, we were at the clinic in 15 minutes.”

Studies back this up: children near good roads in rural Uganda are twice as likely to survive childhood illnesses. Education benefits, too—school attendance in Kikaaya has climbed as students no longer miss classes during rainy seasons.

For women, better roads mean safer travel and access to markets, reducing economic dependence and empowering communities.

Projects like the Uganda Roads and Bridges in the Refugee Hosting Districts emphasize protecting vulnerable groups, adding social value that’s hard to quantify but impossible to ignore.

Let’s crunch the numbers. Assume a $1 million cost per kilometer and annual benefits of $350,000 (combining economic growth, transport savings, and social gains). Over 15 years, with a 5% discount rate, the present value of these benefits is roughly $3.63 million.

Subtract the initial cost, and the net benefit is $2.63 million, yielding an ROI of 263 percent—or 17.5 percent annualized. That’s a return any investor would envy. For lower-cost projects at $500,000 per kilometer, the ROI could hit 25–30 percent annually.

"Even high-cost projects, like the $9.3 million-per-kilometer Kampala-Entebbe Expressway, can justify their price if they unlock massive trade or tourism benefits, though inefficiencies there have sparked debate.

Yet, the road to prosperity isn’t without potholes.

Corruption and poor engineering can inflate costs, eroding ROI. The Uganda National Roads Authority has faced scrutiny for contractor inefficiencies, and maintenance lags can shorten a road’s lifespan. Environmental costs also loom—cement production is carbon-intensive, and without sustainable materials, we’re trading short-term gains for long-term harm. Debt-funded projects, like those backed by China’s Exim Bank, burden taxpayers if benefits don’t materialize.

Jack’s road in Kikaaya was a success, but not every project delivers. So, what’s the way forward?

First, prioritize cost-effective designs. Innovative materials or simpler road specifications could cut costs by 15–30 percent, boosting ROI.

Second, tackle corruption head-on—transparent bidding and accountability can keep budgets in check.

Third, invest in maintenance. The Uganda Road Fund’s fuel levies are a start, but consistent funding ensures roads like Kikaaya’s last their full 15 years.

Finally, measure social benefits rigorously. Health and education gains are real but often undercounted, skewing ROI calculations.

Jack’s story is Uganda’s story. His doubled income, his daughter’s saved life, and his community’s newfound mobility show what’s possible when we pave the way forward. A 263 percent ROI isn’t just a number—it’s markets reached, clinics accessible, and dreams realized. But we must build smarter, maintain diligently, and plan sustainably. Only then will every kilometer of asphalt deliver the prosperity Jack now enjoys in Kikaaya.

For more on Uganda’s infrastructure journey, check the National Development Plan or explore analytics at https://x.ai/api.

 

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