The decision or non-decision by the ruling party’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) not to name the party’s choice for the race for speaker earlier this week, was the shot heard around the world.
Two term speaker Rebecca Kadaga wants to retain her place and her deputy Jacob Oulanya wants to unseat her. Both are members of NRM’s CEC.
CEC passed the buck to the parliamentary caucus to decide who between the two, will be its champion in the race for speaker.
"On the one hand the move may signal a vote of no-confidence in Kadaga, who has not endeared herself to the party’s apex body, by declaring they have no business deciding who will be speaker....
On the other hand, it may be that CEC is not convinced by Oulanyah’s bid, or not convinced enough to throw their fellow veteran under the bus.
A few weeks ago a discussion on Urban TV’s Cross Fire show concluded that the open campaigning by the two, which President Yoweri Museveni put a stop to, was playing to the CEC gallery. That CEC would decide and that the new MPs were not the target market for the acrimonious campaign.
Now CEC has thrown all those calculations out the window.
But prior to the CEC decision Prime Minister Ruhakana Ruganda wrote to parliament asking that the elections, which were supposed to happen today be pushed back. His argument was that the NRM MPs needed time to caucus and decide on the matter.
This serves as a good show of democracy, after all why should CEC be deciding for MPs who will lead the house.
"But if the NRM was behind Kadaga they would need no time to send out the signal that Kadaga is their favourite....
The need for time suggests there is still more work to be done whipping some MPs into line. The former chief whip Ruth Nankabirwa, for who there is no love lost with Kadaga, lost her seat and that gap will be felt in coming days as someone else is chosen to keep NRM MPs in line.
The NRM’s chosen one will most definitely be the next speaker of parliament.
In the 529-member house the NRM has 336 or about 63 percent of the seats. The vote for the speaker is decided by simple majority, so they already have the numbers. And if there is any doubt there are the NRM-leaning independents who are most of the 74 Independents in the house.
Of course, you can expect that the opposition MPs will gladly vote for an alternative NRM candidate as a way to spread dissension in the ruling party’s ranks but its doubtful that they can make an impression on the proceedings.
The stakes are understandbly high for Kadaga and Oulanyah.
Kadaga has made it clear that there is no other position in government that can appease her, she will take the speakership or nothing.
"After two decades in the speaker’s office – she deputised Edward Sekandi for two terms, It would take some getting used to warming the back bench and living without the influence of the speaker’s office....
While in Oulayah’s case, to fail to become speaker may mean another stint in the political wilderness.
Oulanya’s ill advised leading of the no-hope Aggrey Awori presidential bid of 2001 set his political ambitions back. Joining the NRM and encouraging the perception that he engineered the north’s cold shouldering of the opposition in favour of Museveni, suggested it was only upwards and onwards for his political career.
Hovering over the debate is Museveni who has not come out openly in either candidate’s favour, but for who, the person who occupies the speaker’s seat is critical for his government.
A cooperative speaker and by extension a pliant parliament is good for him.
Nevertheless the race looks too close to call.
"The NRM doyens may want to sway the vote one way, but if not properly induced, the rank and file have shown a disturbing propensity to vote the other way...
The antagonists must be biting their nails down to the quick and spending sleepless nights with their strategists, but for the rest of us mere mortals we are rubbing our palms in glee in anticipation of high drama next week.
