The biggest number in the National Social Security Fund’s (NSSF) latest results is not the Sh6.51 trillion it earned last year. It is not even the Sh32.8 trillion it now has under management.
It is Sh80 trillion.
NSSF has revised
upwards the asset target under its 10-year Vision 2035 strategy from Sh50
trillion to Sh80 trillion after its performance suggested the old target would
be reached far too early.
“We had to revise
this because projections suggested Sh50 trillion was not ambitious enough,”
NSSF Managing Director Patrick Ayota said.
Management
reckons that at its current trajectory the Fund could reach Sh50 trillion
around 2029 or 2030 — several years ahead of schedule.
You can see why.
"Assets under management jumped 26 percent in the year to June 2026, to Sh32.8 trillion from Sh26 trillion. Five years ago they stood at Sh15.6 trillion.
Sometimes numbers
become so large that we lose perspective. So it is worth looking backwards.
Forty years ago,
NSSF was a tiny institution whose assets were measured in billions, not
trillions. Twenty years ago, it
was still largely a compulsory savings scheme struggling with weak compliance,
cumbersome systems and limited public confidence. By around 2010 it had just
over Sh2 trillion in assets, customer satisfaction was below 50 percent and a
benefit claim could take more than 100 days to process. About 10 years ago, assets were around Sh5.6 trillion. Today they
are Sh32.8 trillion, customer satisfaction is 89 percent and benefits are
processed in an average 4.5 days.
And another NSSF
story recently almost snuck up on us.
When President Yoweri Museveni opened the new Marriott development in Kampala a few weeks ago, we learnt that NSSF had taken a 30 percent stake in the project, putting the overall project valuation at about Sh500 billion...
Think about that.
Ugandan workers’ savings now have the muscle to take a substantial position in
a Sh500 billion hospitality development.
The Marriott
investment also tells us something about where NSSF’s growing financial muscle
may increasingly be deployed.
Traditionally its
core portfolio has been government securities, listed equities and real estate.
Fixed income still accounts for 76.5 percent of assets, equities 18.4 percent
and real estate 5.1 percent.
But management is
looking for opportunities beyond these traditional investments.
The Marriott is a
good example. NSSF says tourism is one of Uganda’s strategic growth areas. The
investment case was based partly on data showing rising visitor arrivals but
relatively short stays in Uganda — often two or three days compared with longer
stays in neighbouring destinations.
One possible
reason is the shortage of internationally recognised facilities capable of
keeping high-spending visitors here longer.
So NSSF assessed
the investment through both financial and social lenses: returns to members,
employment, demand for agriculture and other supplies and the potential to
attract conferences and international events.
That distinction
matters. NSSF is not a development bank. It is investing workers’ money and
every investment must first make financial sense.
But a Sh32.8
trillion Fund can increasingly do both — generate returns while financing
productive capacity.
Infrastructure
could be another frontier.
NSSF says it has
already committed to the Jinja expressway project and is prepared to invest more as
projects become investment-ready. Its message to government is straightforward:
do the feasibility studies, complete the designs, acquire the rights of way and
bring bankable projects to the table. NSSF can then provide long-term finance.
This is what a
country with growing domestic savings should eventually look like.
The latest results show the firepower available. Total income surged 85 percent to Sh6.51 trillion. Realised income increased 24 percent to Sh3.88 trillion, interest income rose 21 percent to Sh3.49 trillion and dividend income jumped 55 percent to Sh369 billion...
Member
contributions increased 13 percent to Sh2.42
trillion, while benefits paid rose 17 percent to Sh1.549 trillion.
But one number
that particularly catches my eye is Sh180
billion.
That is how much
Smartlife Flexi, NSSF’s voluntary savings product, accumulated in just 20
months following its November 2024 launch.
That surge in
voluntary savings may be an important part of the journey to Sh80 trillion.
Growth can no
longer depend only on compulsory deductions from formal-sector workers. There
is a vast universe of businesspeople, professionals, informal workers and other
Ugandans looking for credible places to accumulate long-term savings.
There will be
mistakes along the way. NSSF officials made this point while discussing Uganda
Clays, one of the Fund’s difficult historical investments.
No investor
predicts the future perfectly. That is why you diversify.
The correct
measure is not whether every investment succeeds, but whether the portfolio as a whole consistently
grows members’ wealth.
And this is
perhaps the bigger story behind the new Sh80 trillion target.
"NSSF has evolved from a relatively modest compulsory savings scheme into the biggest pools of indigenous capital Uganda has ever created...
Now imagine what Sh80 trillion can do.
