Tuesday, March 22, 2022

SOBER DISCUSSION NEEDED ON RISING PRICES

Commodity prices have been on the rise in recent weeks and as expected there is a lot of chatter about and who is to blame for the inflation.

Government is the usual punching bag. This week prime minister Robina Nabanjja made a statement in parliament outlining the causes of the new inflation, mostly that the inflation is imported with increases in global oil prices and the supply chains, which have not yet recovered fully from Covid-19 lockdown. The ongoing war in Ukraine is expected to worsen matters as those countries account for 30 percent of world traded grain and other manufacturing inputs.

As a result, she explained, that there is very little scope for government to positively affect prices.

In reaction opposition MPs suggested a suspension of digital tax stamps on manufactured products as a way to bring prices under control. They also proposed that government should stop marking fuel for internal consumption, the cost of which is transmitted to the end users. Government marks fuel to prevent dumping. Fuel which is in transit to other countries is cheaper, since some taxes are not imposed on it, and if sold on the local market would disrupt genuine suppliers.

Recent investigations by this paper have shown that the increases come first due to the sharp increases in fuel prices we kick off the year with. A liter of petrol cross the sh5,000 mark in January for the first time. This was due to a combination of global fuel prices jumping to 14 year highs and the blockage of fuel trucks at the Kenyan border earlier this year. The health ministry had insisted that truck drivers needed to undergo covid-19 tests before they came into the country, which sparked a strike that affected fuel supplies, which we have not entirely got over.

"The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) reported that in February petrol and diesel prices jumped 34 percent and 25 percent respectively...

Fuel prices feed into everything so its no surprise that this is a factor.

In addition, there were suggestions that some businessmen have cornered the market for inputs in the manufacture of bar soap partially explaining the doubling of bar soap prices in some places.

All this indicate make it clear for anyone to see that the causes of our current jump commodity prices is really out of government’s hands and will not give itself to any short term remedies.

In fact things will become worse before they become better as Kenyan transporters are set to raise transport fees by five percent.

That being said it is clear that as long as road transport dominates our trade as a country we will always be at the mercy of the wild fluctuations in fuel prices.

If the MPs really wanted to be useful they should address this issue, especially progress on the railway and water transport across the Lake Victoria.

As it is now it costs almost twice as much --$5250, to move 30 tons by road than it does by rail --$2,800. But because it takes about two weeks by rail compared to under a week by road, it’s no wonder businessmen would rather use road. The discrepancy in times in transit has a lot to do with underinvestment on our railways.

"MPs, if they were farsighted, should be pushing for investment in the railways, revamping of existing management and smooth operations as a matter of urgency....

While it does not seem to be an issue this time like it was in 2011, another major driver of inflation is rampant spending by government. MPs should keep an eye on this as a matter of course.

Some of the proposals the MPs are suggesting may even force government into populist measures that lead to worse inflation.

In the mean time for the rest of us the solution to rising prices is obvious, we need to cut our coats to fit the cloth.

 


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