Last week massive demonstrations kicked off in Hong Kong in
protest over China’s latest attempts to exercise more control over the
semi-autonomous city state.
Hong Kong was returned to China in 1997 after being a colony
of the Britain since the 19th century. Since then it – and the
island of Macau, have enjoyed a semi-autonomous status that has left its
booming economy largely intact, while allowing Beijing the right to vet its
chosen leaders.
This last point is what triggered the protests. China’s
Communist Party imposed tight rules on the nomination of candidates in the 2017
fanning fears that a truly democratic election will not happen then.
What started off as a student boycott of classes in protest,
in August has ballooned into hundreds of thousands of Hong Kongers taking to
the street in solidarity.
This is Beijing’s greatest political challenge since the
Tianamen square protests 25 years ago. It shouldn’t come as a surprise for Hong
Kong watchers.
The island state has developed a thriving free market
economy, while mainland China has developed a mixed economy. Part of the
handover from the UK in 1997 was the understanding that Hong Kong would retain
its essential nature as a bastion of capitalism and parliamentary democracy in
the region. Beijing would only appoint a chief executive.
With Hong Kong’s multi-billion dollar economy and a
financial hub in Asia it would serve little good to rock the boat. But it was
only a matter of time until Beijing would seek to exercise more control over
Hong Kong, if only that it does not fan its own pro-democracy lobby.
The Communist Party has entrenched its dominance over
mainland China over the last 65 years, through what they call scientific
development where partisan politics does not have a place in the running of the
country.
Under this system they have allowed liberalisation of the
economy and engaged in massive infrastructure and social engineering projects
that have seen the most populous nation rise to the second largest economy in
the world. It is estimated that China’s economy will overtake that of the US by
2027.
But China’s GDP per capita numbers at about $7,000 rank it
about 82nd in the world in the league of the league of less
accomplished middle income economies.
Hong Kong’s per capita GDP stands at $40,000 and therein
lies the crux of the matter.
The limitations of the per capita GDP criteria notwithstanding,
this one statistic suggests that the average Hong Konger has a higher standard
of living than the average Chinese on the mainland.
Democracy comes with development. The more affluent people
are the more they will want to determine their own destiny and not abrogate
their responsibility to a higher authority. The basis of democratic practice.
"Looking from the outside one would understand Beijing’s reluctance to cede any ground to the protestors, as to do so would embolden the pro-democracy movement simmering under the surface on the mainland...
The current standoff serves as a very useful test case for
democracy.
Will the Hong Kong middle class continue to agitate for
greater autonomy and therefore the right to ever increasing political space or
out of pragmatism kowtow to Beijing? In case of the former it will validate
the theory that once man has got his basic needs he cannot be held back from
agitating for a freer society. In case of the latter the theorists may have to
rethink their models.
Looking from the outside one would understand Beijing’s
reluctance to cede any ground to the protestors as to do so would embolden the
pro-democracy movement simmering under the surface on the mainland.
There are high stakes at play and while this is a very
different world from 1989, one should not be surprised if China risks playing
into the hands of its detractors and move swiftly to crackdown on the Hong Kong
protestors.
In an ideal world China and Hong Kong should be able to
coexist well into the future, but reality dictates different.
Power seeks to concentrate more and more power to itself. On
the other hand the liberals will always seek to spread their brand of politics,
if only as a survival mechanism; the freer everyone is the more likely their
way of life will be protected, able to fend off attacks from more authoritarian
systems.
And that’s why Taiwan too must be watching these
developments with growing unease.
The state started as the refuge of the Nationalist Party,
which was deposed by the Communist Party in 1949. While not universally
recognised diplomatically Taiwan has managed to maintain its sovereignty thanks
largely to the US, which does not encourage Chinas territorial ambitions over
the island state.
With China having its way more and more in Hong Kong what
would stop them turning to Taiwan a few decades or even generations down the
line?
