Last
week warring factions in South Sudan signed an agreement to cease fire
following weeks of fighting during which the advantage see sawed from
one side to the other.
There
a lot of Ugandan businessmen are waiting with bated breath for the
resolution of the conflict so they can jump back into one of the most
lucrative but lawless markets in the region.
Among
Kampala's chattering masses there has been criticism of government,
that they aided the then rebel SPLA against the Khartoum government but
Uganda has derived little commercial benefit from the world's newest
nation. The feeling has been that Kenyans had jumped in and snapped up
all the prime business opportunities.
The
outbreak of fighting in December may have changed that perception
dramatically. It came as a surprise that anything from 20,000 to a
million Ugandans were actively involved in South Sudan in as diverse
roles as boda boda riders to humanitarian aid workers.
We
knew through anecdotes that our northern neighbours were buying up our
produce while still in the fields, but we didn't know that our northern
neighbours had now overtaken Kenya as our biggest trading partner
accounting for than a billion dollars in exports in 2012, with some
estimates suggesting that figure was set to double in 2013.
Officials
estimate that continued instability in South Sudan will account for up
to a percentage point of economic growth this year.
Suddenly the importance of south Sudanese is enough to make us ignore their occasional uncouth behavior.
Suddenly
it doesn't matter too whether our businessmen affected are Baganda,
Banyankole, Japadhola or Lugbara, they are our business people and can
we evacuate them and we sympathize with the losses they have incurred.
A national interest can only be forged it seems, when we think of ourselves in relation to other nations.
You
want to tread carefully on the issue of commercial interest dictating
foreign policy but when you think about it, economic interests do not
respect tribe or creed and are more durable than other transient
differences.
It
is interesting too that while happenings in south Sudan dominate our
front pages they do not exercise the Kenyan popular thinking as much.
The difference maybe in the way our respective commercial agents have
operated in south Sudan.
While
in Uganda's case it has been individual businessmen striking out on
their own, trying to make speculative gains from trade. In the Kenyan
case it has been more the case that huge corporate entities, banks for
example, which have pitched tent in Juba. Probably explains the
difference in reactions to the crisis by our respective governments.
Our businessmen may learn a thing or two from going the Kenyan way though.
In
operating as companies rather than individuals they can scale up their
operation to take advantage of bigger opportunities, their size would be
impossible for politicians to ignore in Kampala and therefore take safe
guarding commercial interests more seriously but more importantly,
spread the risk of doing business among more shareholders ensuring that
in the case of business failure the loss is not as disastrous to the
individual businessmen.
Our
businessmen can not get away from it. To take on the new competition
for the region's opportunities, they need to get more organized. At very
basic level they need to stop operating as individuals and go
corporate.
The
Vasco da Gamas and Christopher Colombus when they set out to explore
for alternative routes to Asia, created corporations to support the
endeavor spreading risk and ensuring that even if one mission failed
they could finance others in the future that hopefully would recoup
earlier losses.
Of
course the challenge of operating with other partners is that it will
take more intelligence, patience and sacrifice to manage shareholder
expectations. There is bound to be a steep learning curve for our
businesses but lessons they have no choice but to learn.
Its
unlikely that south Sudan will remain unstable for long, but for a long
time before proper structures are in place it will always be a high
risk environment to operate in.
Once
beaten twice shy, we cannot ignore the market but our businessmen need
to think more about covering he downside in future forays north.
