The headline from the Uganda Securities Exchange in 2025 was not turnover, nor even the 36.6% rise in the USE All Share Index. It was the emergence of what Crested Capital aptly dubbed the Black Diamonds — a small clutch of counters that delivered returns north of 25% and reminded investors that, even in a shallow market, price discovery still works .
At the top of this glittering pile sat Bank of Baroda, whose share price more than doubled, rising 111.24% over the year. That is the kind of return that forces even the most hardened bond investor to glance sideways at equities. Close behind was Quality Chemical Industries (QCIL) with an 82.68% capital gain, sweetened further by dividends that pushed total shareholder return close to 90%. Stanbic Uganda, Airtel Uganda, and dfcu Limited completed the Black Diamonds list, all posting solid double-digit gains and, in Airtel’s case, an attractive income kicker that lifted its total return to nearly 60% .
These results matter because they cut through a persistent narrative that the USE is “dead money.” It is not. It is selective money. In a market of barely a dozen domestic listings, dispersion is brutal. Pick right, and you compound meaningfully. Pick wrong, and you can sit on capital erosion for years. The same report that celebrated Black Diamonds also recorded painful declines in Uganda Clays and Umeme, whose shares fell over 40% during the year, underlining that risk is very much alive and unequally distributed .
Beyond prices, 2025 also showed a gradual, if uneven, deepening of participation. Equity turnover rose to sh98.4 billion, up nearly 27% from 2024, with activity strengthening through the year as dividend positioning and institutional flows picked up. Yet the market remains heavily concentrated. MTN Uganda alone accounted for almost 57% of total turnover, with Stanbic taking another fifth. Liquidity, in other words, follows familiarity, scale, and balance-sheet comfort, leaving smaller counters largely orphaned .
The contrast with fixed income could not be sharper. Government securities continued to dwarf equities in both scale and liquidity, with accepted bids rising to sh28.8 trillion and secondary market turnover topping sh102 trillion. Bonds remain the market’s workhorse — predictable, deep, and irresistibly convenient for institutions — while equities fight for attention one dividend and one price rerating at a time .
Looking ahead, 2026 will test whether the Black Diamonds story was a one-off sparkle or the start of something more durable. MTN’s long-awaited fintech separation could reshape valuations. Airtel’s push to meet free-float requirements may broaden participation. And Umeme’s arbitration outcome remains a binary event with real consequences for confidence...
For now, the lesson of 2025 is simple. The USE did not reward breadth; it rewarded conviction. In a market this small, alpha does not come from owning everything. It comes from knowing which diamonds are real — and having the patience to hold them when they shine.
