If the honourable Robert Kyagulanyi haboured any doubts about the enormity of the task in his bid to win state house, the results of the special interest groups elections this week would have put them to rest.
This was a damper to his campaign, in a week during which Kizza Besigye, who has carried the opposition on his shoulders for near 20 years, finally came out to announce he would not run against President Yoweri Museveni in the 2021 polls.
With Besigye out of the way Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine seems the natural heir to that throne.
But back to the elections of the special interest groups. Results seen at the writing of this column showed that the NRM had won 80% of the seats in more than 50,000 villages in voting to choose at the village chairmen for older persons, People With Disabilities and youth.
This last category, youth chairmen, came as a surprise and made sympathisers of Bobi Wine’s youthful National Unity Platform (NUP) reconsider their previous enthusiasm.
It should be noted though that NUP gave the NRM a run for its money in Kampala and Wakiso districts, which can be seen as a start.
Even the fence seaters are having to take a second look.
"It is difficult to see how the landslide victory for the NRM at the village level can not be replicated in the dash to parliament and eventually the presidential polls...
If these results were announced in 1996, with only a change of the parties involved there would be nothing amiss.
Which is an indictment on the opposition players of the last quarter century. It says that despite mounting disgruntlement with ruling NRM they have failed dismally to make inroads into its hold on the country;s politics at the grassroots.
"It has been the argument of this column for forever, that while gunning for the presidency is sexy and garners big headlines, the action is at the grassroots or at least the fight to wrestle control of parliament from the NRM, without that it is wishful thinking that you can have a realistic chance at the presidency....
It is commonsense. The foot soldiers for a presidential campaign are at the grassroots and not on radio, TV and online in Kampala.
Museveni and NRM by extension are suffering the contempt that comes with familiarity, so when a new challenge comes up it is easy to create excitement – even Olara Otunu managed to make our hearts skip a beat.
However the novelty factor wears away very quickly and pragmatism sets in.
I am always amused with Museveni critics who say he is not popular, to which I am quick to retort that politics is not a popularity contest. It is about what does this candidate do for me at practical level....
Museveni may not be your favourite uncle but for enough people he has a utility value that allows them to overlook his and his government’s shortcomings.
So the opposition and specifically Bobi Wine can thank their lucky stars that these unvarnished results come months before poling day in February.
These results suggest that there is need for folding up their sleeves further up their arms, crystalising their message and transmitting it up and down the country over and over again and very importantly, that they get viable champions around the country.
"Is it possible to overturn this result in the available months, I don’t think so. But it provides an alternative strategy to the personality cult Besigye has cultivated over the last 20 years, long on promise but thin on the ground....
If Bobi Wine is serious about a run for the highest office in the land he has to do things differently, otherwise like Besigye he will at best be John The Baptist to the eventual arrival of the messiah.
