In the last week it has been confirmed that President Yoweri Museveni will be the flag bearer for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and that Kizza Besigye has not ruled himself out of the running.
The previous week’s excitement about People Power taking overt the National Unity Platform (NUP) was replaced by the fanfare surrounding Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago’s public crossing to the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC).
Lukwago, estranged from the Democratic Party (DP) has run for the mayorship of Kampala as an independent the last two episodes.
"MP Robert Kyagulanyi is the flavour of the month, he has brought much excitement to the race, which a fifth episode of Museveni-Besigye race was unlikely to do...
Kyagulanyi, a relatively new face to politics, has nationwide name recognition as Bobi Wine, his entertainment alter ego.
Not since 2001 when Besigye threw his hat into the ring, has anyone raised as much expectation as the honourable Kyagulanyi has this time around.
In 2001 Besigye lent voice to the internal mutterings that all was not right in the NRM. The electorate ignored the other candidates – Aggrey Awori, Francis Bwengye and Chapa Karuhanga to make it a two horse race.
It has been a two horse race ever since. The excitement of new entrants – Miria Obote in 2006, Olara Otunnu in 2011 and Amama Mbabazi in 2016 failing to upset the titanic struggle.
"The failure of the new entrants to cause a ripple, despite early promise, is based on their lack of supporting infrastructure...
As proof neither of the aforementioned candidates was able to sweep a significant number of their supporters into parliament or into position on the local governments.
FDC has fared little better with Besigye as its flag bearer. Between 2006 and 2016 FDC has reduced the numbers of seats it holds in the house to 36 from 37.
This reduction is even worse in real terms as the house has grown to 426 from 319 MPs in 2006.
"FDC’s real support in the house has fallen back by half as at the end of the last election could count on 8.5% of the MPs for support as opposed to 12% in 2006...
We know of course, that FDC has been haemorraging MPs in the last weeks, which means in the next house its already weak position in the house may very well be worsened.
The question of representation in the house is important for any presidential candidate. It means that a presidential candidate has meaningful support in the constituencies, after all who better to campaign for you than one whose fate is intimately intertwined with yours?
MP Kyagulanyi came to house after an unprecedented landslide victory in his Kyadondo East by election.
He has helped a motley crew of MPs to the house since, based mostly on the novelty factor that envelops him rather than by lending his organisational structure to his allies.
We cannot judge Kyagulanyi by his people power MPs in the house, after the next election we will tell, for now we can speculate.
"Kyagulanyi has going for him his personal charisma and a youthful national demographic, that make us among the youngest populations in the world.
Numbers suggest half of the population are below 18 and 80% are below 35 years old, so we can hazard that at least 30% of the population fall in that critical 18 to 35 year age group – all of voting age.
This group will not be swayed by talk of how bad things were pre-1986 and their expectations of their government is based on what they consume on TV and social media.
A 30 minute power outage has them tearing their hair out; A journey across country they expect to do in less than a day, with frequent stops for drinks and food; Medical care should be within arms reach and not from the “double colour” vendors in the taxi park.
These may sympathise with Bobi Wine but may not vote (the la venti kids?).
"To bring out the vote Kyagulanyi will need a nationwide structure that can not only recruit and mobilise, but fire up the base and keep the momentum going until the elections....
Is it impossible? No. Improbable? Yes, in the remaining time with the shackles of covid-19 ensuring this will be difficult for everyone.
There are no miracles, a lack of organisation on the ground will make it impossible for a presidential candidate to unseat the NRM flagbearer.
The opposition will keep taking this class until they learn the lesson.
