UPE AND THE FLIGHT FROM POVERTY

Getting out of poverty follows a simple formula.

But first what is poverty? Poverty generally, is the inability to meet your basic needs. The opposite of which is being rich, where you can not only met your basic needs, but have surplus income that comes from your assets.

"The formula of getting out of poverty is to trade value for income and with that income create more value and therefore more income. A virtuous cycle. A simple formula but not easy to execute...

The trick is to have something – a good or service, of value to trade. It is possible to have value and fail to trade it, either because there is no market for it or that the market is not aware of your value, but that’s a discussion for another day.

At the heart of the challenge for most anti-poverty programs is how do you create value and then get it to market, and do this sustainably over time.

The reason you are poorer than the richest man in your town is because he knows something you don’t. What he knows that you don’t, makes him behave in a way that ensures he earns more than you.

So invariably creating value often comes with mindset change.

Last week the education ministry commemorated the 25 years of Universal Primary Education (UPE) program. What started off as a response to a campaign promise by presidential candidate Paul Ssemogerere in  1996, was a good idea that was long overdue. Since then primary enrollment has jumped to  about eight million today from two million in 1996 and seen literacy levels  almost double to 75 percent from 43 percent in 1986.

As suggested above education, which by definition entails a mindset change and therefore creation of value, is a useful first step to lift people out of poverty.

There are questions about the content of our education system, but if one is literate can overcome these shortcomings with continuous learning.

It should come as no surprise that Kenya and Tanzania, which in the case of the former has had bigger enrollments at primary school or in the case of the latter started UPE in 1977 are bigger economies than Uganda. Their literacy levels reflect the earlier adoption of UPE with Kenya at 82 percent and Tanzania 81 percent.

"The thing with such social engineering initiatives is that it takes time to see tangible results, which may discourage people with shorter electoral time spans. But the benefits are there, its just that they may just creep up on you.

What value can you put on being able to communicate in one language all around the country? How much easier is trade? How much easier is it to mobilise populations? How much market do you create when more of us are educated or at least literate?

It’s happening already. While ideally we should be communicating in an indigenous language other than English, you can now go anywhere in the country and manage just fine with English, as most people now have studied English to some basic level. Hopefully with the introduction of Kiswahili at primary school, in another 25 years we should more improved communication around the country.

That being said there is a lot to be done. The education ministry reports that there is no government aided school in 1,617 of the more than 10,000 parishes in the country.

The ministry estimates that it will need sh1.89trillion or about sh1.2b per school to bridge this gap. Apart from questions of value for money there really should not be any hesitation in releasing these funds.

The best investment a nation can make is to invest in its people, and providing education as well as health services should be key.

A country like Singapore with a tenth of our population and for all intents and purposes, a rock in the sea has a GDP of about $400b.  Beyond basic literacy Singapore’s education system is ranked in the top 20 in the world. It helps of course that there has been an education system in that country since 1823.

Coming full circle to poverty eradication, there are two ways that I know of for an individual to create value, either through education or experience.

UPE has its issues. The idea is sound but the execution may be wanting.

"A previous generation, which did the proverbial 10 mile trek to and from school, have countless stories about how education made a difference. In single families there are siblings who had climbed out of poverty and others who were wallowing in poverty, the difference being one sibling went to school and the other did not.

Interestingly they started their schooling writing in the dust using sharpened pieces of wood (we call them stylus these days), often under trees and many times there was no school when it rained.

They came out fine and many of them lead or have led this country.

 

 

 

 

TO SAVE THE ENVIRONMENT EACOP MUST GO ON

I had a déjà vu moment last week seeing some breathless young lady accost French President Emmanuel Macron entreating him to stop the development of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

The EACOP is the 1400 km pipeline that will evacuate Ugandan oil from western Uganda to the Tanzanian port city of Tanga.

The earnest young lady explained that the pipeline (As if Macron does not know) that the pipeline would encourage the use of fossil fuels which are major driver behind climate change, whose effects are manifest in droughts, floods and even the increased frequency of sand storms the middle east is suffering currently.

It took me back nearly 20 years when all sorts of activists jumped out of the woodwork to protest the development of the 250 MW Bujagali dam. Led by the local agents of an NGO called the International Rivers Network.

The anti-Bujagali lobby argued at the time that damming the river would displace hundreds and destroy the scenic beauty of the area.

"So that time they could not hide behind climate change, especially since hydroelectricpower is one of the most ecofriendly energy sources, they argued for scenic beauty...

One local activist was quoted as saying at the time, "The real issue in Uganda is not electricity but poverty. Currently the majority of Ugandans have no money for electricity, for they are below the poverty line. Production of more electricity will not reduce use of fuelwood and charcoal until deliberate programs are evolved to reduce poverty and the cost of power."

Since Bujagali came on line in 2012 – the world has not collapsed around our ears, but in fact, more than a million households have been hooked up to the grid. Those are a thousand families who left to find their own devices without electricity, would have used kerosene lamps or diesel generators for their lighting at night or used more charcoal in their kitchens and would have been less productive.

Access to power is just below 50 percent today but this is a far cry to the just over five percent of the population who had access to power before Bujagali came online.

It would be interesting to see how much more economic activity has resulted from this development and further still how many people were lifted out of poverty or at least saw their incomes increase as a consequence.

I want to bet that the Bujagali activists now live in houses – they probably built with their paychecks from the campaign, powered by the dam fought so vehemently.

"The anti-Bujagali activists were dead wrong then as the anti-EACOP campaigners are today....

In fact, to stop these developments will be to damage further the very environment they claim to be seeking to protect.

Because it is true that in our part of the world the biggest cause of environmental degradation, is not the fat cats who are reclaiming wetlands for construction, but the poor who have decimated 90 percent of our forest cover in search of new farmland and firewood for their survival.

The history of poverty eradication is quite clear. Countries interested in doing so, exploit their natural endowments to create economic activity, which leads to a rise in incomes across the board and therefore reduction in poverty. In some countries they have done it so well they have surplus resources to bankroll a welfare state, where everyone is entitled to an income in or out of a job. This did not happen by wishful thinking.

"Because we do not have the luxury of enslaving people or colonizing other countries to push economic growth, we have to employ what we have, that is our natural resources and our people. Our confusion about how to do this – due partly to the handsome paychecks from foreign environmental lobbyists, means we are not even doing a good job on this front.

That being said the exploitation of these resources can be done in a way that does not cause irreparable damage to our environment. As it stands now voluminous environmental impact assessments have been carried on the project and provisions have been put in place to mitigate against the damage to the environment to the extent possible. This is not the Niger delta.

If we are truly sincere about conserving the environment we should be poring over these reports to ensure every possible measure was taken to conserve the environment.

The increased revenues to government and to the private citizens involved in the industry, have the potential to improve the provision of public goods and social services that will give more and more people a chance to climb out of poverty.

You do not fight poverty by dishing out money at street corners but by empowering people through better education and health to take advantage of and to create new economic activity.

So if to banish poverty takes the exploitation of our natural endowments and some do-gooder, clearly who knows better than us what is best for us, is fighting this time tested progression, you have to wonder what their intentions are.

"To be charitable to them I would say they are ignorant parotters of slogans on an issue they have no clue about (African poverty), he more cynical view would be that, it is in their interest to remain in our state of under development so our living standards do not rise to their level, because they would have to better share the globe’s resources...

The latter is the conspiracy theory I choose to favour.

 

WHAT CAN WE SAY ABOUT JOHN POMBE MAGUFULI

Former President John Pombe Magufuli breathed his last on Wednesday evening.

His death was an exclamation mark on the last few days, when he had been uncharacteristically out of the public eye. Speculation had been rife that he had contracted Covid-19 and, depending on who you listened to, he was already comatose, shuttling frenetically between Tanzania, Kenya and India to save his life or dead altogether.

The official version is that he died of cardiac arrest.

"In death as in life the man known as the bulldozer –  lovingly or with dread, sharply divided opinion....

Little known is that after his A-level he trained as a science teacher, before he upgraded to a degree and eventually earning in doctorate in chemistry in 2009.

He jumped into politics in 1995 and before he ascended to the presidency he served as transport and works minister, where he earned the moniker “The bulldozer”. His emphasis on infrastructure development as president was obviously influenced by his work in the ministry. Magufuli is credited with pushing projects such as the development of the Standard Gauge Railway, expansion of the Dar es Salaam port, the liquefied natural gas plant among others. His place in Uganda’s history is cemented if only because he was keen that the Hoima-Tanga oil pipeline get off the ground quickly. He openly expressed impatience with Ugandan bureaucracy, whose lackadaisical attitude he could not wrap his mind around, as he had almost absolute power to implement projects in his own country.

His urgency to develop Tanzania’s infrastructure however, contradicted his perceived skepticism about the East African Community, which while he signed up to all the protocols, his government actively discouraged exports from Kenya and Uganda and made working in Tanzania hostile for workers from the region, despite efforts to free the movement of labour around the EAC.

The last part was an understandable reaction from a country, which many years ago under Julius Nyerere took the step to have all their education carried out in Kiswahili. This has hobbled their workforce, making them uncompetitive against their English speaking counterparts in the region. This policy, while it ringfenced jobs for Tanzanian citizens, is unproductive in the long run as it will affect investment into the giant east African nation. The saving grace for Tanzania, maybe that it is so well endowed with natural resources they can write their own check—for now.

Magufuli was voted President of Tanzania in 2015 and quickly captured the public imagination with his campaign against runaway public spending and official corruption. He was not averse to making spot inspections of schools, hospitals and other public institutions, asking hard questions and firing officials on the spot when they waffled and whittled under his withering gaze. The public loved it. He was just the man to fire up Tanzania’s famously sleepy bureaucracy.

Through sheer force of character Magufuli got the public servants, some would say, to accomplish more in terms of public works, in his first term as president than was achieved under previous administrations.

Obviously he stepped on many toes along the way, especially entrenched interest groups that had enjoyed and profited from the status quo.

But the emperor had feet of clay.

Magufuli’s doggedness in trying to lift Tanzania up from the boot straps required an unwavering conviction in his own beliefs and that seemed to work for other things.

Last year the covid-19 pandemic broke out, sweeping from Asia into Europe and the Americas leaving a trail of illness and death in its wake.

As countries scrambled to contain the spread by instituting restrictions on travel and congregation, Magufuli emerged as one of the biggest denialists of the pandemic. He spurned the standard operating procedures promoted to slow the disease spread – washing hands, wearing masks, social distancing and rejected calls to lockdown his country. Tanzania stopped reporting the number of victims and deaths due to Covid-19 in April last year. He went further and declared that Tanzania was Covid-free when neighbouring countries were beginning to report an uptick of cases.  

It will remain a mystery how a scientist, albeit former seminarian, could ignore all the evidence about Covid-19 and choose a contrary path, but whose negative after effects will resound through Tanzania’s history.

Since the beginning of this year some high profile people have died of Covid, like Seif Sharif Hamad, Zanzibar’s first vice-president and it was becoming harder to sweep the situation under the carpet.

As one of his last public pronouncements at the end of February Magufuli conceded that there may be a problem and urged Tanzanians to wear masks, for him it may have been too little too late.

MILK, SUGAR AND THE CHANGING EAST AFRICA ECONOMY

It was an interesting coincidence that 10 years since the East Africa Customs Union came into force, a Kenyan delegation was in Uganda a few weeks ago, to help resolve a trade spurt between our two countries.

At issue was the surge in milk exports to Kenya from Uganda, which had halved farmgate prices in our eastern neighbor and made some powerful constituencies very jittery.

The price collapse in the Kenyan dairy market was prompted by a near sevenfold jump in milk exports from Uganda. Last year according to official figures Uganda exported 110 million liters of milk to Kenya from 16 million liters the previous year.

It is safe to say our neighbours have seen nothing yet.

The Dairy Development Authority reported in June last year that in 2017/18, milk production stood at 2.5 billion liters. Of this only a third of the milk or about 800 million liters is processed.

So if Kenyans have got their undies in a twist about 110 million liters, what would happen if we processed 50% of our production and exported the extra 400 million liters their way?

This was one of the best business stories of last year. The surge in exports overturned our trade balance in Kenya for the first time ever, with us exporting more to them than we import from them. It vindicates the champions of regional free trade...

The Kenyans are pondering slapping 16% VAT on our milk to give their embattled dairy farmers a chance. Which is good politics, but bad economics.

One of the main benefits of free trade is that it sharpens competitive advantages, the ability to produce something better than your competitors, which is a good thing.

The most efficient producers of a good or service end up thriving and the less competitive ones go off to look for their niche, what they can produce better than everybody else in the market.

There will be casualties of course, especially of those refusing to adapt to the changing times.

The anti-market lobby like to say that this is a bad trend and government should step in to subvert the market every so often. Often times the ones fronting this argument are those caught on the wrong side of the competition who want a government bailout.

The best way to look at it is to think of Uganda and its 100-plus districts. Imagine if we had, hard district borders, with customs posts at every district boundary.

To get matooke from Isingiro to Kampala currently, your main impediment is the state of the lorry carrying the matooke. There are no real tariff barriers between Isingiro and Kampala.

But if they were hard borders the inconvenience in crossing the nine district borders to get to Kampala, the time spent – a trip that probably took 10 hours would now be drawn out over a week, and the costs in import levies, overnight travel, would make a bunch of matooke so expensive that Kampala would start growing its own matooke.

The Kampala soils are nowhere near the quality of those in Isingiro, so the people of the capital city would settle for lesser quality food because of these barriers to trade. Kampala will be forced to indulge in an activity it’s white and blue collar workers have no competitive advantage in.

"The net effect of this would be a lower standard of living for city dwellers, than if the district boundaries were brought down....

The East African Community is bringing this reality to the fore.

In 2019 Kenyan farmers have complained not only about Ugandan milk but Ugandan sugar, grain and even poultry. The hard border and Uganda’s years of instability in the 1970s and 1980s allowed less efficient Kenyan producers operate. With stability and the Uganda economy back on a growth path, the Kenyan farmer is being reminded that there are more efficient producers on the other side of the border.

But you can expect that the interest groups who have invested their lives in this inefficient arrangement will not roll over and die. They will fight long and hard to maintain the status quo. But as they say, there is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come.

In Uganda too, some of our producers will have to face up to this new reality. Those who were sucked into the whole import substitution drive will be the hardest hit. There are somethings we have no business trying to produce, because the Kenyans produce it cheaper or even further afield, the Chinese, with their massive economies of scale can produce and land it on our shores, for a fraction of the price that either of us can produce it at.

"Some cynics would argue that agriculture is not the way to develop modern societies, but that would be to ignore the experience of Denmark or New Zealand. This is also to not appreciate the scope of agro-industries that can be built around research, processing, logistics, marketing, retail, hospitality and, that we haven’t even begun to scratch the surface of our true potential....

The government rather than side with entrenched interest groups or crony capitalists needs to direct our economy towards the production of that, that we have a competitive advantage in. When we have mustered enough capacity and surpluses, we can tinker around in areas where we can develop some competence, eventually.

And by the way more than two decades ago the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) mapped out a strategy based on the industries that we have or can develop a real competitive advantage in, at least in the region.

These were agriculture, tourism, services – education, health, financial and ICT and mining. Twenty years later and we are just waking up to our agricultural potential.

NSSF ANNOUNCES 11PCT INTEREST ON MEMBER SAVINGS

KAMPALA – Uganda’s National Social Security Fund (NSSF) on Friday announced that it would pay out an 11 percent interest on members savings, down from last year’s 15 percent but above their commitment to pay more than the average inflation rate of the last 10 years.

In 2014/15 NSSF pledged to pay two percentage point s or above the 10-year average inflation rate. The average inflation rate for the last 10 years is 6.7 percent.

This is the lowest interest payment by the Fund since the 10 percent given to members in 2012.

The lower rate came as a result of unrealized losses on their equity holdings during the year exchange losses on their investments abroad.

The local and regional stock exchanges on which the Fund is heavily invested showed double digit losses in their performance last year. The Uganda Securities Exchange shed 10 percent of its value, the Nairobi Securities exchange 14 percent and the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange 21 percent. NSSF reported a sh168.9b unrealized loss from its equity holdings.

NSSF’s regional and international portfolio also suffered a sh247b foreign exchange loss as the Uganda shilling uncharacteristically strengthen against the US dollar and regional currencies.

These two losing items accounted for the entire sh404.9b loss that the Fund announced for the year. Last year NSSF reported a sh240.4b surplus.

As a result, NSSF paid out sh978b or 11 percent less in interest to its members than last year’s 1,100b.

The loss came despite a 21 percent jump in total revenues to sh1,255b from sh1,042b.

END

NSSF'S CHALLENGE IS THAT OF UGANDA

Uganda's National Social Security Fund (NSSF) reported a sh405b loss for the year that ended in June 2019 on the back of unrealised losses on their equity positions and foreign exchange losses.

Last year the Fund reported a sh240b surplus for the year which prompted them to pay out a record 15 percent interest on member savings. NSSF has said they will announce the new interest rate at the member meeting on 27th September but they have warned that, understandably, they will not match last year's rate.

Their accounts show they will be paying out sh978b in interest this year to their members down 11 percent from last year's sh1.1trillion.

They are confident that they will beat a promise they made to their members five years ago that they will pay out at least two percentage points overt he 10 year average inflationary rate. The average inflationary rate of the last ten years was 6.7 percent.

A cursory look over their accounts shows that entire loss was attributable to fair value losses on their investments of sh169b and currency losses of sh247b for a total loss of sh416b, variables not really under the management's control.

Interestingly their dividend income sh77b was up 45 percent from last year's sh53b. Interest income was up 19 percent with rental income slipping marginally to sh10.7b  from sh10.9b the previous year.

The telling detail is that only 6.82 percent of the dividend income comes from Uganda. This is interesting because whereas all the regional bourses in which NSSF has an interest in all suffered double digit losses during the period under consideration, the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE) was down the least. So if our equity holdings were biased towards the USE instead of Kenya there would be less of a loss.

And that is the challenge and one governments needs to stop sidestepping and address squarely. NSSF does not invest abroad leaving opportunities begging in its backyard, it invests abroad for lack of opportunities at home.

As has been mentioned earlier its portfolio is biased heavily towards government debt, in fact of all government's bond issues NSSF holds 40 percent and it is also the biggest holder of outstanding shares on the USE.

Government needs to actively encourage our biggest companies to list on the USE, which would, at the bare minimum, reduce NSSF's foreign exchange risk. Some estimates have it that the market capitalisation on the USE can more than double over the next five years if the government took a proactive stand on the issue.

The counter argument is that last year the fund made sh313b in currency gains. Ironically the losses came about because the Uganda shilling this year fared better not only against the US dollar, but also the Rwanda Franc, the Kenya and Tanzanian Shilling. An anomaly seen against its record over the last several years.

The benefits that would come with a more vibrant capital market, it can be argued too far outweigh the currency gains that would be made investing abroad. Those gains are not permanent as this last year has shown.

This being as it is, it still raises questions about NSSF's asset mix. As it stands now 79 percent is in fixed income, mostly government paper, 15 percent in equity and six percent in real estate.

It was not all doom and gloom for the Fund though. Total revenues were up 20 percent to sh1.25trillion from last year's sh1.04trillion. Its assets under management were up 13 percent to sh11.3trillion from sh9.9trillion. During the same period the economy grew by six percent. And the Fund was able to cut its expenses to assets to 1.28 percent from 1.31 percent the previous year.

Every so often the Fund's asset allocation throws up a surprise but on the whole NSSF is doing the best it can -- given the circumstances.

UGANDA MTN LICENSE RENEWAL: A REGIONAL TEST CASE

MTN’s licence expired in October and it has been negotiating its renewal before that and since.

But a recent communication to the regulator Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) from President Yoweri Museveni may scuttle what was believed to be a breakthrough in negotiations with the agreement of a $58m (sh220b) license fee for the next ten years.

The President at the end of October wondered why the UCC had agreed on the license fee, a sharp discount from the earlier proposed $100m and ordered UCC to explain themselves.

In this challenging time when government is looking for every coin it can get the president’s querry is within the bounds of reason.

On the surface of it a 42 percent discount seems like a huge comedown from the initial negotiating position of $100m.

But maybe not.

"No one doubts that initial leap of faith by MTN 20 years ago has paid off handsomely for them as a company, for the treasury and for us the regular users, not only of their service but for all mobile phone companies that have followed their lead into our market....

Coming in blind in 1998, the optimistic projections were that the telecommunications company which was playing second fiddle back home to Vodacom, might be able to hook up 89,000 lines in five years.

They surpassed that number within the first year of doing business in Uganda, tempting them to spread their wings further field, to the point that today they are the largest telecommunications company on the continent with total revenues in 2017 of  R133b (sh36trillion).

Here MTN, which is the market leader in 2017 booked revenues of sh1.6trillion paying the tax man is dues of sh450b in 2017 and sh3trillion over the last 20 years. In addition they contributed sh120b to rural communication fund, paid to the UCC and earmarked for the extension of telecommunication services up country.

With all these in mind and the potential future growth of the company, government wouldn’t look unreasonable asking for more.

However last year parliament passed the National Broadband Policy which seeks to achieve affordable and widespread fast internet access. For the private players this would required to lay down infrastructure to improve internet access countrywide, an investment that would not be immediately viable or in their respective rollout plans. The telecomm companies will be expected to shell out millions of dollars towards this investment – MTN’s share it is expected will be about $200m.

In view of this additional investment, which is separate from the two percent taken off gross revenues annually to finance rural extension, it is not surprising that MTN was motivated to negotiate the initial proposal further down.

In fact the $58m they settled on with the UCC is more than reasonable considering the regional trends.

Assuming the initial $100m for ten years comes to about $10m annually. The same license in Kenya for 15 years will cost players there $27m or about $2m a year. Tanzania is even more concessionary requiring a million dollars for a 20 year license or about or$50,000 a year.

Our two neighbours Kenya and Tanzania not only have larger economies $80b and $60b respectively they have larger telecommunications markets. Industry experts place the Uganda telecom market at about $850m compared to Kenya’s $3b and Tanzania’s $1b markets.

While it may seem that in West Africa where MTN has paid more,  $124m in Cote D’Ivoire and $94m in Nigeria, this was for 17 years in Cote D’Ivoire or about $7m annually. In Nigeria they got a five contract renewal in 2016 which cost them $94m or about $18m annually. However their operation in the West African nation has about 60 million subscribers to spread this cost over, which more than accounts for a perceived higher price than in Uganda where MTN has about 12 million subscribers.

"The hidden benefit to less expensive license in our region could explain why East Africa is on the cutting edge of mobile money developments. The mobile money ecosystem that has gone beyond money transfers to include loans, hire purchase and insurance was piloted and developed in this region by Safaricom and MTN.

It makes sense that companies operating in a conducive environment with fair fees will invest in research and innovation to the benefit of all.

Creating an enabling environment for investment is often a balancing act, where governments extract enough that they can finance their own projects but then not so much that businesses cannot thrive let alone survive.

The government is right to demand its just pound of flesh but we need to do this without throttling the goose that lays the golden eggs.

GULU FIASCO, A PEEK INTO OUR COLLECTIVE LOT

Uganda has been hosting a regional secondary schools meet in Gulu for the last week.

It is safe to say that at the end of this event as a country we will not be covered in glory for the shambolic manner in which our officials have gone about the event.

At the beginning of the event key facilities for athletics, swimming and tennis had not been worked on.

Since the beginning of the week we have been served with a frame-by-frame show of development on the pool.

At the beginning of the week they were filling the pool by whatever means necessary – buckets, fire trucks, water bowsers and doing it delicately so us not to dislodge the tiles which had only just been laid.

Then they were tiling the skirting of the pool. And finally they were treating the algae-green water and officials were optimistic that the swimming competitions could kick off today (Friday). For lack of time they were going to modify the competition so as to be done by the scheduled end of the games, on Monday.

"How typical of Ugandan officialdom to leave for the very last minute such preparations for an event of such importance...

They have it down to a tee. Lobby for an international event. Win the right to host it with years to spare. Then forget about it. With months to go – in this case days to go, sound the alarm that we are not prepared and we risk a fiasco if issues are not addressed. When all seems lost and we are about to do the right thing – that is pull out of the commitment, we make a last gasp appeal to state house to rescue the situation.

Of course at this point no one is going to be going over the request with a fine comb. We cobble together a half decent event, the visitors leave and we go on with our lives, the hypertension-inducing crisis forgotten so totally as to make one wonder whether it was just a bad dream.

The formula deviates little from this basic plot.

We saw it with the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in 2007, we have seen it with Uganda Cranes at the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year and with our hosting of the Africa Netball Championships a few months ago and a multitude of events in between.

For a person who has not been following the circus or unable to dot to the dots, one may write it off to the incompetence of the relevant officials. Or maybe put it down to another case of government refusing to leave up to its obligations.

But how can it be?

All the people who organise these events are intelligent, experienced officials whose competence it would be hard to fault. And the ease with each hundreds of millions are released for these events suggests that government isn’t short of money for these events.

So what is going on?

"Your guess is as good as mine. But it would not be a stretch of the imagination to believe that these delays are deliberate, designed to create public concern and panic. This would then justify an unquestioning opening of the money taps from the treasury...

It would be interesting to see a post event audit of some of these events who success was saved from the jaws of failure by a timely and over-enthusiastic cash infusion by government.

This perennial circus has a cost. It means other more crucial budget items are bumped off the agenda for one, incentivises wrong behaviour and need we say, puts money in the pockets of  a few at the expense of the majority.

Since they keep doing the same thing over and over again with no fear of being stopped in their tracks, this behaviour also points to impunity.

How else do you explain civil servants wearing Rolex watches whose minimum price is many times their monthly salary?

THE TOP TEN SHILLINGS & CENTS POSTS OF 2016

Uganda never bores. For better or worse we are always making news. This blog tries to go beyond the news to explain, interpret and decipher the news.

2016 has been a good year for news and below are the top ten Shillings & Cents posts by page views. This is the second edition -- the first having been at the end of 2015, of what will be an annual event

#10: WILLIAM KAJOBA, IN THE EYE OF THE BAILOUT STORM

On an evening talk show early last week Kampala businessman William Kajoba came out strongly in favour of a bailout of local businessmen, who are struggling through the current economic hard times and are staggering under the weight of the growing debt load on their businesses. more

#9: RUGASIRA ON COFFEE, CHOCOLATE AND EXPORTING TO THE WEST

 I prefer to seat upstairs at the Good African Coffee shop. But Andrew Rugasira had other ideas. We sat downstairs with a display of Good African’s various offerings as a backdrop to our conversation.

Rugasira is launching a line of chocolates to complement his company’s line of coffees, which project started a decade ago and took him from the foot hills of the Rwenzori Mountains to Buckingham palace to the rarefied heights of high finance in the business capitals of the world. more

#8: THE UPDF SHOWING THE WAY ONCE AGAIN

Last week the UPDF’s Wazalendo Savings & Credit Coop had it annual meeting.

According to its financial report they made a profit of about sh12b, which was 30 percent higher than the previous year when profit after tax came in at sh9b. Savings almost doubled to sh60b while the loan book came in sh146b. The 69,000 member group had invested sh80b in their SACCO by subscribing to the SACCO’s shares. more

#7: POST ELECTIONS, FOCUS ON JOB CREATION

As the dust from the just concluded polls settles it’s time to move on, use the lessons of the campaigns as a stepping stone to a better future for all Ugandans.

As far as I am concerned everything – political or social has its root in how the economy is faring, how it’s being run.more

#T5: THE GHOSTS OF KARUMA PROCUREMENT RETURN TO HAUNT PROJECT

The troubles that dogged the Karuma Hydropower project’s procurement continue to stalk the project, threatening the multi-billion dollar dam’s future usefulness.

In the current spurt the Energy ministry and the Uganda Electricity Generation Company Ltd (UEGCL) are in a heated battle over the supervision of the Karuma and Isimba dams, with accusations and counter accusations being traded, a situation that has been brought to President Yoweri Museveni’s attention. more

#T5: INTERVIEW -- WAPAKHABULO IS REARING TO GO AT UGANDA OIL COMPANY

Josephine Wapakhabulo was last month appointed the Chief Executive Officer of the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC). Dr Wapakabulo sat down with Business Vision’s Paul Busharizi to discuss her company’s role, her plans and the prospects for oil in Uganda, below are the excerpts of the interview. more

#4: BREXIT AND WHY YOU SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO PEOPLE IN LARGE NUMBERS

Last week the headlines were all about the shock UK vote to leave the European Union (EU).

By a four percentage point margin the British were scared into believing that immigrants from eastern Europe, the middle East and Africa would overwhelm their shores, and a vote to keep them out would be better than staying wed to the largest economy in the world. more

#3: SOUTH SUDAN'S IMPLOSION IS OUR WAKE UP CALL

The flare up in fighting in South Sudan is disheartening for the disruption and loss of lives that it entails but also for the economic loss to Uganda that it signals.

Clearly the recent peace deal between the South Sudan government of Salvar Kiir and the rebels led by former vice president Riak Machar has failed to hold. more

#2: WILL THE MUSANA CART BRING THE ROLEX TO THE WORLD?

Almost two decades ago two young men asked themselves what it would take to create a “Rolex” chain of restaurants.

The ideas would be take the rolex, which at the time was championed by one Sula in Wandegeya, create a menu, standardise the ingredients, upgrade the sanitation issues, license the Sula name and employ him for good measure. more

#1: WITH THE CABINET ARE WE BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE?

This week a double take was necessary on news that NRM members of parliament were sulking over not being appointed to the cabinet and went further to task President Yoweri Museveni to explain  his selection criteria.

Museveni ever the consummate politician, it is reported, listening to their griping, said he would take their concerns under advisement and would get back to them. more

MOBILE MONEY BANKING HERALDS A REVOLUTION

When I left university getting a bank account on one of the high street banks was out of the question as they had prohibitive requirements. To keep an account one had to maintain a minimum balance of sh100,000, this was one of those unfriendly requirements.

In addition banks remained open for a four hour window, between 9 am and 1 pm, all the branches were on Kampala road and there were no ATM machines. Then Greenland Bank came along scrapped the minimum balance option, operated until 7 pm in the night and opened on weekends.

In response other banks have become more flexible. Branches were opened in unthinkable streets and towns. Opening hours have been extended to all day. And believe it or not now every bank has a product that does not call for minimum balances.

A lot of these changes have come from increased competition but advances in technology have played a crucial role.

This week mobile phone company MTN and Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA) announced the introduction of a mobile phone banking service MoKash, the precussor of a revolution in financial services in the country.

With the service mobile money members can now get interest on the monies they hold on their accounts and in addition can get loans of up one million shillings depending on how much they have saved and how much they utilise the MTN services.

Kenya and Tanzania have already been ahead of us on this development and progress there is an indication of what we can expect.

In Kenya the Mshwari service, which was launched four years ago now boasts of more than 15 million clients, with an additional 12,000 signing on per day. The total deposits on the service amounted to $81m (sh250b) as of the end of March.

"In Uganda already 83,000 accounts have been opened this week, it is projected that sh21b in deposits will have been received by this time next year and that  four in every ten mobile money account users will be signed on during the same time...

Essentially that in three years there will be as many people in the service as the five million bank account holders there are today.

For the general economy and even the improvements in the welfare of individual households this number or development will be very significant.

The major challenge for development in Uganda is that too little of the money in circulation is in the formal banking system. This is a problem because money in your pocket is actually reducing in value with time, but beyond that it cannot be used by people with a genuine need for it.

In Uganda under 30 percent of money in circulation is in the formal financial sector whereas in more developed economies it is the exact opposite. One of the biggest benefits of this is the low lending rates they enjoy and the myriad of products the banks have because banks make money by lending. 

Going by the law of supply and demand the money they have seating in their vaults the cheaper it is to lend out.

With the use of technology we are now beginning to rope in this little monies that have been going unutilised. According to official figures about sh30trillion was transacted across all mobile money platforms in Uganda last year. A figure which jumped from sh18trillion in the previous year.

This money was not earning interest for its owners nor could they borrow against it.

"With this single stroke access to financial services – savings, loans, insurance and many others will be only a phone click away from the most down trodden of our numbers – the new service allows for deposits of as little as sh50 and loans of sh3000...

With time the service will not be the sole preserve of MTN and CBA bank, which is a good thing as competition can only improve the sector, the final beneficiary will be the masses.

For the general economy these huge untapped resources will inevitably have a seismic effect in the industry and for the individuals it will open a whole new world of possibilities.

ANATOMY OF A TERROR ATTACK --- THE DAY TERROR WAS VISITED ON KAMPALA

On July 11, 2010, near simultaneous explosions – heard as dull thuds around Kampala, went off at Ethiopian Village Restaurant in Kabalagala and at Kyadondo Rugby Club grounds in Lugogo, in Uganda’s worst terror attack.

Revelers had gathered at the two venues for the televised showing of the football World Cup between Spain and Netherlands.

The shock waves and shrapnel from the bombs accounted for seventy-six people. Many others were maimed, scarred for life; physically and mentally.

The next day, an Improvised Explosive Device (IED), was discovered at a bar, Makindye House, in Makindye a city suburb. Rigged to explode when the detonator, a phone rang but it malfunctioned.

Subsequently, Uganda Police sought assistance from the Federal Bureau of Investigations, and a probe commenced. Various people were then apprehended in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania and tried over four years in a Kampala court.

On Thursday 26^th May – 2146 days after the bombs went off, Justice Owiny Dollo passed judgement on the 13 suspects, bringing to a close a tale of international intrigue, terrorist conspiracy and misguided youth.

How plot was weaved

When was the attack on Kampala conceived?

It is hard to say but it is almost certain that the plot was hatched in Somalia, that occupies the horn of Africa with Kenya and Ethiopia to the west, Djibouti to the north and the Indian Ocean to the east.
A largely barRen land about two and half times the size of Uganda, it has been racked by civil conflict since the overthrow of Siad Barre in 1991, by a coalition of clans backed by Ethiopia and Libya.

Out of that intractable civil war has emerged the Al Shabaab, a Islamic youth movement that started as an offshoot of Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which for a time was in control of the country before the Ethiopian army and Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) routed them in 2006.

Since 2007 Al Shabaab has been waging war against the Africa Somalia Mission (AMISOM) – a UN sanction peace enforcement force manned by Ugandan and Burundi troops, and the Somali government.

With their back against the wall Al Shabaab put out an international distress call and set up training camps in its areas of operations to train fighters from all around the world.

It against this background of larger forces swirling around the globe, moved by events in as far flung places as Afghanistan and Washington DC and beyond their control or comprehension that Mahmoud Mugisha and Isa Ahmed Luyima, a former librarian at Kampala International University, met for the first time in an Al Shabaab training camp in the hot sands  of Somalia 2009.

Isa was known by the code name Basayevu, and was a member of the militant outfit.

Isa and Nsubuga were trained in hand to hand combat, fire arms and explosives in bases in Baidoa, Barawe and Kismayu, and engaged in several attacks on African Mission to Somalia( AMISOM) positions during the duration of their stay in Somalia.

The two would eventually become the Ugandan arm of a four man team tasked with leading the terror attack on Kampala.

On return to Uganda in February 2010, Isa, who was born in Kawempe, a northern Kampala suburb, was tasked with finding suitable Al Shabaab targets in Kampala.

Isa instructed Mugisha to rent a house in Kampala, to serve as the base point for the teams that would be involved in the mission.

Going by court testimony it is clear that Issa had seniority over Mugisha, who he carefully cultivated into Al Shabaab, convincing him that he had a religious obligation to wage Jihad, holy war against the tormentors of Somali Jihadists fighting to wrest their country from the clutches of the infidels.

With Mugisha and seven others, training continued for the Kampala attack in a rented house in Namasuba, a southern surburb on Kampala, on the only road leading to the country’s international airport form the capital.

Previously Issa had rejected a house rented by Mugisha in Nakulabye.

In April Mugisha and Habib Suleiman Njoroge travelled to Nairobi to collect the explosives, from a house in South B.

The house in South B was registered in the name’s of Mohammad Ali Mohammad, who was part of the four man team leading the attack

The items; four green plastic bags, were loaded into the boot of the Land Cruiser, under the watchful eye of Nyamandondo, who then proceeded to Uganda.

Before returning to Kampala for the final mission Mugisha  made a quick detour to Somalia  and fought in several fierce battles for Al Shabaab in which they they attacked several AMISOM bases, and also contended with retaliatory attacks.

On May 9, 2010, Seleimani Hijar Nyamandondo, a henchman of the Mohammed Ali Mohammad of the Kenyan wing of the operation, and Mugisha brought explosive material and the suicide vests into the country.

Issa in a statement to the police said he had received the suicide vests from Nyamandondo following an advance called from one Hanif from Nairobi who alerted him that they were on the way.

Nyamandondo was driving a green Toyota Land Cruiser, with Tanzanian registered license plate number T595 ADH, which car would lead to his eventual arrest months down the road.

They met at National Theater, drove to Java’s Café Bombo road where they had tea, before they went to Namasuba.

 The explosives were kept in the house of Edris Nsubuga, Issa’s friend.

The two had met in 2004, when they both served in the Kampala International University library. They struck up a relationship which came in handy when Issa was helped Edris through a rough patch with his wife, who had known Issa before they were married.

Nsubuga, claimed he did not know that explosives had been deposited at his house until a month later.

“The day he came to pick his “things” packed in a plastic bag that I had kept all along, thinking they were his domestic items brought by his friend form Kenya in May, I got terrified,” Nsubuga wrote in a rambling confession to President Yoweri Museveni in which he blamed Issa for roping him into the murderous plot.

“He called me to the room where they had been kept and I found him seated on the floor, with the items laid on the floor. He seemed to be checking, sorting and confirming what was in the bag. He told me “Eno y’esonga (this is the issue)”



THE GENESIS

On July 11, 2010, near simultaneous explosions at Ethiopian Village Restaurant in Kabalagala and at Kyadondo Rugby Club grounds in Lugogo.Revellers had gathered at the two venues for the climax of the televised football World Cup match between Spain and Netherlands.

Seventy-six people perished, several others were maimed, some for life; physically and mentally.

The next day, an Improvised Explosive Device, was discovered at a bar complex, Makindye House, located in the city suburb of Makindye.It was rigged to explode when the phone rang but it malfunctioned. Police bomb squad recovered it the next day.

Somalia’s militant outfit Al shabaab, with strong links to global patron All Qaeda, claimed responsibility. It was the outfit’s maiden attack beyond Somalia’s borders.

The attack was a show of intent and a push for a credit rating to showcase ability to implement its threat to strike internationally and receive approval and recognition from Al Qaeda.

Al Shabaab has sought the affections of Al Qaeda’s central leadership since early 2008  The group champions the same philosophy, and Al Qaeda, has constantly issued many public statements and pledging allegiance to the global  outfit.

In June 2008, Al Shabaab supremo, Mukhtar Abu Zubair, outed a propaganda video, exalting Al Qaeda principals Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, and Abu Yahya al Libi.

In September 2009, Al shabaab released an attention seeking  propaganda video titled, ‘At Your Service, Oh Osama’ with incessant voices in the video speaking glowingly of the now slain supremo.

In February 2010, the outfit justified its threats and attack strategy, saying in a statement: “Jihad in the Horn of Africa must be combined with the international jihad led by the al Qaeda network’.

The Afghan trained Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Ali, set up the first militant training camps in Somalia, and was behind the radical and aggressive communications strategy, calling for massive recruitment.

The propaganda videos, carefully crafted with professional precision, with promises of better life and abundant rewards.

To attract international appeal, it has strategically broadcast English language videos and audios, imploring youth on essence of Jihad. A franchise designation is an invaluable tool, giving credibility and a known brand name to groups seeking to attract aspiring Islamist militants.  Additionally, it buffers their financial muscle, as they benefit from the logistical and financial generosity of Al Qaeda’s deep pockets.

The main weapons and tactics synonymous with Al shabaab include suicide bombs, roadside improvised explosive devices, and mortar attacks.

But AMISOM troops have responded, securing a big portion of the land, and minimised the threats.

Nsubuga said on seeing what Issa identified as explosives, he was badly shaken, though he denied this when Issa asked him.  Nsubuga couldn’t help noticing though that Issa was cool, calm and collected that day, before he left with the explosives.

According to his confession Nsubuga was instrumental in scoping the terror targets. A regular man about town, despite his Muslim faith, Nsubuga knew what to look for when Issa was looking for suitable sites for his nefarious plans.

Among the places they looked over were several bars and restaurants in Kabalagala before the settled on the Ethiopian Village, Kyadondo Rugby ground and Makindye House for their lax security.

Nyamandondo spent the night at Naigara Hotel, off Entebbe road, a few meters away from the Najjanankumbi mosque, and departed the next day. Isa booked into the same hotel, a single floor affair, with a brick wall lined with old palm trees, under the pseudo name ‘Moses’.

Investigators were later able to ascertain that Issa had been at the hotel when a handwriting expert analysed a specimen of his handwriting with that of the queried guest registration book that had the name ‘Moses’, and found that they were a match.

Shortly after the explosives arrived in the country three Kenyans – Kaka, Kakasule and one other whose name he could not remember came into the country, who Issa were informed were part of the plot.

Kaka and Kakasule lived with Issa for a week before Kaka and the unnamed Kenya returned to Mogadishu via Nairobi. They were restless and had got tired of waiting.

A Somali boy, maybe in his mid to late teens, Morsul, came in from Nairobi to replace Kaka.

Another operative Hanif made his way to Kampala around the same time and it turned out he was the man who made the final connections before the bombs were dispatched to the target sites.

Issa singled out the Ethiopian village for attack because the Ethiopian had dislodged the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) had continued to fight the Al Shabaab.

He had expressed some reluctance to attack sites where Ugandans patronised but was accused of nationalism and of being insensitive to the havoc the UPDF had wrecked in Mogadishu.

However on the eve of the bombing Issa discovered that he was understaffed. The Somali and Kenyan bombers did not know their way around so he had to conscript locals to deliver them to the bob sites.

Out of desperation he called upon his brother Hassan and Nsubuga. The two were introduced to each other days before the operation, when they were carrying out surveillance on Makindye house.

On the eve of the attack Issa at a meeting at Majestic Plaza, on Williams street, he gave both Hassan and Nsubuga the keys to the Namasuba house, which they were to use to access the house and clean it out after the attack.

Issa’s instructions to the duo were short and succinct: Haruna’s job was to transport one of the suicide bombers, Kakasule, to Ethiopian Village Restaurant, and also drop off the explosive bag at Makindye House.

While Nsubuga was supposed to take the Somali teen, Morsul to Kyadondo rugby club.

He also instructed Nsubuga, but not his brother, to blow himself up in the event that security agents were about to arrest him.

Before they proceeded to Namasuba, they made a stopover at Mutaasa Kafero Plaza, and purchased two mobile phone handsets; a Nokia 3510 and an MTN Kabiriti, which were to be used as detonating devices in the mission.

On the eve of the blasts, Haruna took Nsubuga to the Namasuba Safe House and introduced him to the suicide bombers as a brother in the struggle.

Issa left for Mombasa on the eve of the terror attacks.

On the fateful day at 4pm, Haruna, who had purchased snacks for the suicide bombers, met Nsubuga at Kenjoy Supermarket along Entebbe Road. Nsubuga was told to report to the Namasuba house at 6pm.

A demonstration on the assembly of the explosives, was arranged for an already afraid Nsubuga but Haruna comforted him, with reassurance that all that was required was to make a phone call to the wired mobile device, that would be triggered to explode.

Haruna ordered Nsubuga to blow himself up in the event of detection by security personnel. Thereafter, Nsubuga proceeded to Kyadondo Rugby Club, with the other suicide bomber, Mursal.

Nsubuga and the suicide bomber Mursal had contrasting feelings about the mission. While Nsubuga was a nervous wreck, and wanted to abort the operation, Mursal was ecstatic that it was the perfect opportunity to strike because of the multitude of merry making revellers.

Nsubuga had no choice but to place two bags on the table nearby with the laptop bag containing the explosives.

Mursal became impatient and signaled to Nsubuga that it was perfect timing to detonate But a quick-thinking Nsubuga cautioned him that Police officers had upped their patrol.

Mursal heeded, and the first half ended with singer Bebe Cool coming onto the stage.

They later concurred that the detonation be executed at 11:15pm.

Mursal then gave Nsubuga a thumbs-up to signal that all was set. Nsubuga responded with the same sign in acknowledgement, and headed towards the main entrance, to avoid becoming a victim, since he had rejected suggestions that he become a suicide bomber.

Time check 11:15pm, and the nerves got the better of Nsubuga, who instead called another friend to chat about the match. Shortly thereafter, a loud bang reverberated from the side where the giant screen was stationed. Some boda boda riders, stationed at the main entrance, speculated that a transformer could have blown.

Nsubuga knew that there was no turning back. He immediately made the much dreaded call to the phone that was connected to the carefully-wired device, which then ignited the second explosion.

He got on a boda boda, which headed to the taxi park, from where he boarded a taxi to his Najjanankumbi residence.

Nsubuga heard breaking news on the blasts from one of the radio stations relaying the live match commentary.

******************


The 2010 World Cup was a particularly special one for Africa as it was being hosted by the continent – in South Africa, for the first time.

And the final was interesting too. In finalists Spain and the Netherlands we were assured of a first time winner. The last time such a final happened was in 1978 when again Netherlands was pipped to the top honours by Argentina, the host nation.

The sense of history that surrounded the event was probably lost on three young adults, who with their friends went to Kyadondo Rugby Club and the Ethiopian Village to witness the televised finale.
Yusuf Kiganda testified that on the day he and five other friends – Brian Kivumbi, Brian Kawooy, Nicholas Kyambadde, Brenda Nabachwa nd Trevor Mawejje boarded a taxi, outside the Bank of Uganda on Kampala club at around 5 pm.

At the club Kiganda remembers that they were among the first to arrive and had were spoilt for choice in where they could seat. They sat a few seats from the front not far from where Morsul would blow himself up.

The match described by BBC’s Paul Fletcher reporting from Johannesburg, was tense and bad tempered – 14 yellows were shown and a Dutch man sent off. Though Spain dominated possession, the match had few moments of real quality and went deep into extra time. The winning goal was scored by Iniesta in the 116^th minute.

But Kigadanda and his friends did not get to see the goal as around the 75^th minute all hell broke lose when the first bomb went off at Kyadondo grounds.

“Suddenly, there was a big bang, and I could not tell what had happened.I found myself lying on the ground. My friends were also down. I did not realise they were dead, and I never knew what had happened to me,” Kiganda recalled.

Apparently he had been flung out of his chair by the bombs shockwaves, his body lacerated by the shrapnel and he had lost all sense of hearing.

David Muwemba a few meters away may have been saved by his drink.

“As I reached for my beer under the chair, I raised my head, saw smoke, and thought there was a power interruption.I felt drops on my shoulder, and thought it was rain but realised it was blood,” he testified before Justice Owiny Dollo.

He had the presence of mind to grab his friend Bonita Nakato’s hand head … stumbling and tripping over fallen revellers towards the main entrance of the club.

His other friends, Frank Mukwaya, Peter Oye and Peter Byekwaso were felled where they sat.








HOW MAKINDYE BOMBING BACKFIRED

At about 9:30pm, waiter at the Icelink bar Joseph Buzoya, served drinks to his boss was, madam Charlotte and her husband. Shortly thereafter, he heard a phone ringing and I saw a black bag on the tiled floor.

He did not touch the bag because people were many, as he feared to be mistaken for a thief. Buzoya worked as a cashier for the day, since the cashier was away.’

The following day, at about 3pm, out of curiosity, he unzipped the bag after co-workers who had kept the bag, pressured him into doing so to ascertain ownership and demand money from the owner.

The workmates Fiona and Joseph Tembo, convinced him to ascertain the contents, since many patrons usually forgot property at the bar.

Buzoya speculated that it could be a bomb because of the devastating twin attacks of the previous night. But Fiona and Tembo dismissed it as a joke. They were determined to ascertain the owner of the bag, as they hoped to be given a reward.

When the black laptop bag was unzipped, it contained a cable, the size of a laptop charger, a torn cloth, a wooden object that had started decaying, and white masking tape. Buzoya hurriedly zipped the bag and looked for the manager, after realising that his workmates were anxious and querying why he was rummaging through someone’s property, while other patrons watched, and wanted to be attended to.

But since the manager was not around, Buzoya sought advice from a obne Moses, worker at the nearby Hakuna Matata pork  joint, who  said the prudent thing was to call the Police. Thereafter, one of the customers,only introduced as Kabuye, called the Police.

Shortly, security personnel from Katwe Police station, cordoned off the area, and demanded for the bag. After about 20 minutes, Counter Terrorism Police arrived and combed the entire area with three sniffer dogs.

The bar was evacuated, and  an 100-metre no go-zone was instituted at the crime scene. But curious people gathered and were hesitant to leave. Police chased them away.

After 30 minutes, Police issued a statement that they had discovered a second bomb. The told us that they found it hidden in the hedge.

The workers were sent home, and summoned to Katwe Police station the next day where they recorded statements.

 NSUBUGA CONFESSION TO MUSEVENI 

The following is an abridged version of the confession statement of Mohamed Ali Mohamed. Although court rejected it on the premise that it was recorded irregularly, prosecution relied on its contents to incriminate the accused.

Nsubuga writes to Museveni, begs for pardon

Self-confessed Kyaddondo Rugby Grounds bomb detonator Nsubuga, pleaded guilty after a soul-searching talk with slain prosecutor Joan Kagezi at Luzira prison.

He volunteered information and asked President Yoweri Museveni for forgiveness.

Contents of Nsubuga’s letter, dated October 27, 2010, were highlighted during mitigation, after he was  sentenced to 25 years in prison.

Nsubuga Edris,
Luzira Upper Prison,
Remand Section,
27 October 2010

HE Yoweri K Museveni,
The President, Republic of
Uganda
President’s Office, Nakasero
Kampala,
Uganda.

Dear Sir,
Re: Request for Forgiveness and Pardon
It is only through the power of God that I have this opportunity to write to you, taking into account the many tasks that are keeping you busy. However, I feel very humbled at this opportunity.

Your Excellency, it is very absurd that I was involved in the acts that tragically shook the nation that you lead, on July 11, 2010. I have always felt obliged to apologize and ask for forgiveness from you, the President of this country.

I am a man of sound mind, who honestly just happened to be caught in a web of delusions, deceit, manipulation, hatred and spite towards everything that was going on in my life as well as threats from a trusted friend who happens to be a member of Al Shabaab.

At the time, I had domestic problems with my wife and I took him in as a confidant because he happened to know her before I did. He often helped me out by talking to her and fortunately, sometime we would get along.
I believe he realised my weakness at that time and he took advantage of the moment to delude me and sow that evil seed in me. He intensely swarmed me, always telling me to change and better my ways, and rarely did he miss talking about issues concerning Somalia.

He often called me early in the morning to tune in to Al Jazeera [television news network] and watch the new developments in Somalia, if there were any. When I look back, I believe he was just inducing hatred and bias into me at the time because he had never mentioned his mission.

I was totally ignorant and less concerned about the Somalia issues as I had my problems to solve. Once, I informed him about my intended trip to Rwanda, to try to find a job, and he stopped me from going, the reason being that he wanted to meet me urgently before I left.

I did meet him and that is when he revealed his mission to me, though concealing the details for his own [benefit]. He started by quoting some verses from the Qur’an, emphasising how I had to answer this call from God; employing a lot of silver tongued, confusing and bewildering promises.

It is through his tireless efforts, [and]repeated exhortations that I succumbed to this conviction, not knowing how grave it was and the consequences that lay ahead – all because of ignorance.

Your Excellency, I acknowledge that I made a very irrational decision of accepting to help him. However, I believe anyone under my situation would have been susceptible to such confusion and conviction, unconsciously.

He asked me to move with him around any hangouts that I knew that were frequented by whites – since I am an outgoing person. He said that was my simple role in answering this call from God.

His aim was to punish the Americans for their support against his colleagues and to intimidate the Ugandan government out of Somalia as well.

This was around June 19 because on June 21, he informed me that he had received visitors from Kenya to help him with his mission, so we had to visit the places as soon as possible since his superiors had grown impatient.

His interest was places without tight security and indeed, he was pleased with Kyadondo Rugby Club, which we did visit around June 26. All this time, he was still concealing the details of his mission and spoke little to me.

Once again, I informed him about my intended trip to Rwanda, but he told me that I could not go because there was no way he was going to explain that to his bosses, who, to my understanding, were always coming in from Kenya. He emphasized that they could not take that excuse and he reminded and reassured me about how my role was so simple.

The day he came to pick his “things” packed in a plastic bag that I had kept all along, thinking they were his domestic items brought by his friend from Kenya in May, I got more terrified.

He called me to the room where they had been kept and I found him seated on the floor, with the items laid on the floor as well. He seemed to be checking, sorting and confirming what was in the bag.

He told me in Luganda “eno y’ensonga”, meaning, “this is the whole issue”.
He told me they were explosives to be used in his mission. I complained that all along, I thought that I had been keeping household items.

He responded by asking me whether I was scared. I told him I was not, although I was trembling and very scared. He seemed so strong willed, determined and firm, and again assured me that I shouldn’t be scared. He left with his explosives, and the following days were full of uncertainty.

I became hesitant to answer his phone calls until we met in town and he gave me a dire warning that his bosses were not at all pleased with my behaviour.

I told him I had made my final arrangements to leave for Kigali and my wife was at home as well, so I could not help him anymore. He responded by speaking to me seriously, in a soft tone, that I could not leave, lest I am treated as a traitor.

He said a traitor is punished by beheading. I realised the true gravity of the whole matter. Without tasking your patience, briefly that is how it started and was carried out, as per what I stated.

However, I want to affirm that I value life, peace and harmony, even though I cannot explain much about this one fateful moment when I took this emotional decision of accepting.

Sir, however much I was under strict orders, I got some courage under all that fire to defy some orders. I was able to convince and stop the suicide bomber from entering the crowd with the bag of explosives and I tried my best to leave it somewhere far from the crowd, without informing him.

Even then, I had not imagined how lethal these explosives were because I had been lied to that they were simply for intimidation. I was also seriously cautioned to blow up myself in case any security official closed in on me in order not to fall into their hands, which would hinder future plans and plots.

I did detonate the explosives in the bag just to save myself; I did not want these wretches to hold me accountable for not doing as told, but I tried my best to place the bag far away from the crowd.

After the incident, I was full of anxiety, anguish and uncertainty. However, when I got arrested, I voluntarily revealed how everything had happened. Honestly, I was not tortured to do so by the men whom I had been seriously cautioned not to let myself fall into their hands.

I did so because I did not and do not believe in that cause. I revealed the whereabouts of my contact and also information about his friend and would-be partner, Mugisha Mahmoud, who was supposed to blow himself up originally, but was at large.

I also revealed information about the movement of funds and the style of communication to one another. I have learnt a lot through stories during the time I have been in custody, about how the organization of Al-Shabaab conducts its work.
I know how they recruit, who they recruit, how they communicate, and their disguise in public, and how they successfully propagate their evil doctrines.

I am totally averse to their aggressive acts and this is why I am begging and requesting, with all due respect, to be given chance to redeem myself by giving back to the nation and people that I harmed, wronged, transgressed and put in such indescribable grief when I involved myself in these acts.

Your Excellency, we are yearning for a solution, but the big question is, ‘is there one?’ Of course yes; if you would let me now substantiate what I assert.

Through my study and analysis, the strategy I have devised to achieve this great purpose requires the [least] of means, yet there will be astounding results. My strategy is similar to the one you employed when combating the AIDS scourge when you assumed the leadership of this country. This strategy is AWARENESS and indeed, you succeeded significantly.

The task calls for tremendous fortitude, but I get the inspiration from yourSowing the Mustard Seed, where the idea to liberate this country was just in one man’s mind, but it later became a significant reality.

First of all, the problem arises from feigning tolerance towards these few, determined individuals who pause as Sheiks in our midst and are busy propagating these evil ideologies just because there is freedom of speech and worship that you allowed, Sir.

These individuals have ventured in translating the Qur’an with their interpretations greatly influenced by their own prejudices and bias. They have a sickness that has let their egos overshadow their sense of logic and understanding.

They are fully inflated with pride and lack genuine humility, only being hungry for violence just to whet their appetites. They have also resorted to foul means to subvert the religion and have cultivated a predilection for promises that inevitably strike, bewilder, confuse and convince the poor, ignorant listeners.

They are merely winking on flimsy pretences based on prejudiced and misinterpreted verses of the Qur’an, thus succeeding in propagating their philosophies and keeping their audience under the much needed subjugation.

From their eloquent speeches and deportment, they are able to draw attention anywhere and win the hearts of ignorant youth. They have imputed that the Sheiks preaching against their evil ways are traitors.

They do mock democracy, yet the smugly wink with gratification at their unnatural ways of violence. These aggressors will never be satisfied with their relentless assaults, attacks and attempts on people’s lives.

Your Excellency, we have a more sombre responsibility of extricating our ignorant young Muslim and non Muslim youth from the spiritual quagmire into which they are wallowing.

By employing the help of young Muslim and non-Muslim scholars who are without fear or favour and are ready to suffer obloquy for their convictions, we can be able to debunk the lies of these wretched men and prevent the youth from pandering these many prejudices.

There are genuine Sheiks who have tried to preach right, but their timidity cannot permit them to do so anymore, citing loss of their lives, as the topic of jihad has become too provocative.

We should not make half-hearted and skimpy efforts in this cause; we should endure greatly, and I believe that in tackling this issue publicly through organized seminars, TV and radio talk shows, and so on, the youth easily get an insight and they will not refuse to acknowledge the truth and facts.

The hearts that are hard will be melted and the tender, doubtful and ignorant ones that require support will be diverted from falling into the snares of evil.

More regeneration and religious reform will be achieved and all the doctrines of these evil men will ultimately crumble to dust. Prejudices die hard and none of these wretches would like to lose their adherents, but with endurance, we will win the would-be adherents from such conviction.

As a victim of manipulation, I’m ready to set forth and grasp fully the enormity of this task in order to limit the scope of propagation of evil and terrorism and prevent our country from living in fear and trepidation inflicted on its people at the behest of these aggressors.

Your Excellency, you have led this nation from ruins to its much enjoyed peace and happiness. The people of Uganda owe you gratitude and a debt they cannot repay.
It is the same treasure I am humbly requesting to preserve, and I am strongly convinced that this era of panic, terror, hatred and spite caused by these men will end.

Your Excellency, once more, I affirm that I am totally and honestly averse to these acts and I condemn them. It is that I only feared for my life and was left with no choice but only a small opportunity of avoiding to harm more people.

I hope you are heeding to my plea to fulfill my endeavour. I also pray and hope that in you, I will find the [abounding] grace and mercy you have always possessed as a generous patron, parent and leader, even during times of anger, to personally forgive and pardon me as a delinquent who acknowledges and regrets my mistake.
May God bless and guide you in the forthcoming general presidential elections.

Yours faithfully,

Edris Nsubuga