There are interesting times ahead for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).
As the dust settles over the recent presidential and parliamentary elections and to some extent the district elections, the spoils of war have to be distributed.
Unfortunately the NRM is far from jubilant at their recent showing at the polls, and therefore some hard decisions will have to be taken.
Central Uganda was an absolute blood bath for the NRM, with the National Unity Platform (NUP) sweeping everything but a handful of seats before them, 25 in all and accounting for 13 ministers in the process.
"In 2016 in trying to account to the NRM chairmen for their dismal performance, Kampala politicians blamed Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) boss Jennifer Musisi and her drive to bring order to the capital. This time around fingers are being pointed at Mengo and the Catholic Church – something about coffee beans. They are fast running out of scape goats...
The NRM took a beating in Busoga while gaining ground in northern Uganda, west Nile and the western regions. The Forum For Democratic Change (FDC) which could be counted on to win some seats around the country struggled to make an impression.
As is becoming the pattern, about two thirds of incumbent MPs were shown the exit and with the additional 100-or-so seats means the house will have a new look and texture. Though the NRM will maintain its dominance with more than 300 seats to itself, without counting the NRM leaning independents.
At the end of last week Deputy Speaker Jacob Oulanyah took exception to comments by his boss Speaker Rebecca Kadaga that she was looking to retain her position as head of the house.
The speaker of the house is decided by the party with the most seats in the house.
Oulanyah said Kadaga was reneging on a deal – ostensibly brokered by President Yoweri Museveni, that had been made the last time around that would see her step down and Oulanyah ascend to the speakership in 2021. This was all dependent on whether both would retain their seats, which they both did.
According to the constitution the speaker is only behind the vice president in the line of succession to the presidency. Beyond that, it is a very influential position given its leadership of parliament.
What could Museveni give Kadaga or Oulanyah in order to keep the peace not only in the house but maybe also in the party?
But Kadaga’s bargaining position is a bit shaky given the president’s losses in Busoga and especially in Kamuli district, where she is the long standing woman representative.
Going for her is that she is a woman – a constituency not to thumb ones nose at and she can point to the fact that she was mostly onside over the last five years.
Whichever way it goes, with Oulanyah throwing down the gauntlet last week, this is not going to go away quietly.
"As happened last time when the opposition threatened to throw in their lot behind Kadaga, expect them again to be rubbing their palms in glee at the thought of spreading dissension in the NRM ranks....
For Kadaga no other office, other than the presidency, offers her as much influence over the politics of Uganda. So anything else she may be offered may seem like a demotion – even the vice presidency.
For Oulanyah taking over the office of the speaker, will mark a return from near political oblivion, after his ill advised support of the Aggrey Awori run for the presidency in 2001.
The former Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) young turk had to reinvent himself by joining the ruling party, win a seat in then NRM-hostile northern region and as a reward became deputy speaker.
The stakes are high and the strategists at Kyadondo road have some head scratching to do to diffuse the situation.
Will the loss of his Bukoto County Central seat mean Vice President Edward Sekandi will be passed over this time, his seat being dangled before either speaker as a peace offering to make this dilemma go away?
Let us wait and see.
