This week UPC president Olara Otunnu announced that he will
not be standing for re-election for the party’s top job when his term expires
next week.
This comes only days after DP president Norbert Mao
announced he was taking leave from his duties as leader to recuperate. Mao last
year was hospitalised in Nairobi for acute pneumonia and has not been back to
his best since.
"Between the two of them they did not win five percent of the vote in the last election – Mao got 1.86 percent while Otunnu managed 1.58 percent of the votes cast in the 2011 presidential elections, but their colourful characters, earnestness of their losing campaigns and unvarnished conviction that the NRM must go for the country to progress will be missed...
Mao, ever since his bruising battle for the guild presidency
in 1990 against the Noble Mayombo, has always seemed destined for state house. Unfortunately
Mayombo passed on, but there was a promise made that, down the line they would
replay that famous guild election, but this time for the highest office in the
land. A seasoned battler who successfully faced down the NRM thrice in Gulu
–twice as MP and the third time for the chairmanship of the district, and then
prised the leadership of DP from its traditional Ganda stewards, one felt that
in full flow his oratory and confidence would be a match for anyone standing in
his way.
In Otunnu, swept into this city on the wave of optimism that
came with the victory of Barack Obama in the US. Not averse from bluster and
bombast Otunnu moved quickly to wrestle the reins of UPC from his local rivals
before standing for the presidential elections in 2011. A campaign that petered
to an embarrassing halt with him refusing to vote. Since then he has been the
most beleaguered party leader in Uganda, a situation which was not rescued by
his show of bravado in facing down the water cannons of the Uganda police in
full public view.
The former UN Under-Secretary also cemented a perception
that his rival Yoweri Museveni learnt almost three decades ago, that you have
to be on the ground to make a telling political challenge. Being in “exile” –
however accomplished you are, will not help you at home. A useful lesson for
all those intending candidates abroad.
We shouldn’t forget too, that perennial presidential
contender Kizza Besigye stood down as leader of FDC, though it does not
disqualify him from being the party’s flag bearer again.
The three men’s stepping back may very well mean that their
respective parties get a new lease of life. Initially one can expect some chaos
as rivals jostle for position --- even in the case of DP, but as they settle down
one can expect some new vigour.
"Looking forward to the 2016 polls one may be forced to question the timing of Mao and Otunnu’s actions. Will their respective parties be able to resolve the internal political struggles in time to promise a credible campaign?...
At least the FDC has accepted General Mugisha Muntu’s
leadership being a flag bearer at next year’s polls may be another thing, but
there is a semblance of stability in the party that could serve them well next
year.
Another lesson from Besigye, Mao and Otunnu has to be that
discontent with the government and a charismatic flag bearer count for little
without an organised structure to project your intentions. There really are no
miracles in politics, a leader’s first order of business is to build, takeover
or co-opt an organisation to further their aims. There are no short cuts.
