This week a new party the Alliance of National
Transformation (ANT) was launched bringing to 26 the registered political
parties in Uganda.
The party is led by Major General Mugisha Muntu who broke
away from Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) after he lost his bid to retain the
leadership of that party in 2017.
Prior to that he was the army commander of the National
Resistance Army (NRA) and did time as army representative in parliament.
Observers remain on the fence, but it is hoped that ANT will
evolve into a credible party to break the duopoly of the NRM and FDC and give
the people more choice during the elections.
We have seen opposition parties and coalitions come and go,
with them barely denting the hegemony of the NRM over the last two decades or
so.
"For ANT not to suffer the same fate as its hapless predecessors, it will have to do several things consistently over the next few years in order for it to at least overhaul the FDC as the top opposition party or at best be the ones to dislodge the NRM from its vaunted position.
There is a place for charismatic personalities in any
political contest, but even more important is organization from the grassroots
upwards that make the difference. There are no flukes.
While President Yoweri Museveni cannot be faulted on
charisma, this is also backed up by a nationwide organization which can project
his message ahead of himself. The power of incumbency cannot be wished away.
What the opposition has failed to do and continues to fail
to do, is to commit to building those nationwide structures. The proof of this
is there for everybody to see.
Apart from Museveni winning the presidency the NRM has 293
of the 426 seats in parliament and has 82 or three quarters of the 109 district
chairmen to its name. In parliament the independents are then the most populous
block with 66 seats followed by FDC with 36.
"These numbers are not just academic. These politicians and their separate networks provide the foot soldiers for their respective presidential candidates. Not even Museveni can visit every one of the people who have voted for him, but you can rest assured that either the party MPs, district or sub county politicians and their networks have done so in the course of a campaign.
If anyone wants to put up a credible challenge for the
presidency this disparity in grassroot support has to be addressed urgently.
And given the gap, bridging it may not even take years but a decade or two of
diligent, consistent work in the trenches.
So if ever there was a man for the job it would have to be
Muntu. While charisma may not be his forte, he knows from experience commanding
the national army in times of war, what it takes to build an army, preempt or
react to enemy action and eventually take and secure the high ground.
And he better than most would know that it does not come
with a snap of the finger but with hard thankless work.
And he better than most would know that the adulation of the masses does not always deliver a result, so he will guard against being seduced by the praise singing of his most ardent supporters and keep his nose to the grinding stone building the network he and his party needs to become challengers...
It is romantic to think that one can sweep out the NRM,
which has built its structures – however chaotic them may seem, over the last
three decades by sloganeering and posturing for the cameras.
Good luck.
Given, the opposition does not have the advantages the NRM
had when it was building its own infrastructure. When the NRM rose to power
they immediately suspended party activity, coopted some party bigwigs into
government and basically had free rein to sell its vision around the country
unchallenged.
The opposition are coming up against an opponent entrenched
in its position and determined not only not to cede ground but to also win what
little the opposition is hanging on to.
Given that the options for armed insurrection have narrowed
it will require more intelligence than the hail and brimstone the current
opposition seem to favour.
