In December 1987 there was shoot out in Busia, on the Uganda-Kenya border. Kenya claimed that Ugandan troops entered their country and were stopped in their tracks. Uganda at the time complained of rebels attacking Ugandan villages from the Kenya said. Presumably our soldiers were in hot pursuit.
There was exchange of fire for a few days until President Yoweri Museveni and his Kenyan counterpart Daniel Arap Moi broke bread in primary school compound in Malaba, the other major border town north of Busia.
At the time there was some mickey mouse outfit – The Force Obote Back Again (FOBA), which was more bluster than substance allegedly operaing in eastern Uganda and working out of western Kenya.
The hostilities were snuffed out within the week.
The Kenyans closed the borders and we had a fuel shortage, which did not do any good for our inflation which that year was running high at 215 percent.
There was a parallel narrative behind the shooting.
"That Kenya having considered Uganda a captive market, for almost two decades by that time, was not amused at Uganda’s noises about economic self sufficiency....
The industrial base in western Kenya was predicated on Uganda continuing to be a basket case for a long time.
So the shoot out and subsequent border closing was a shot across Uganda’s bow. A warning that our eastern neighbour can do major damage to our economy if they want. That we should just lie down and continue to be Kenya’s market for finished goods.
Fast foward to today and it seems Kenya is up to its old tricks.
Ugandan exports to its eastern neighbour has been growing in leaps and bounds. So much so that in 2017 we reversed our trade balance – we started exporting more in value than we import from Kenya.
Whereas that is mostly the export of raw materials from Uganda, our manufactures are beginning to climb as well.
In fact, one of the major drivers of our increased exports to Kenya in 2017, was a jump in processed milk.
In 2019 Uganda’s exports of milk to Kenya came in at $150m bettered as an export earner by only gold and coffee.
Uganda Manufacturers Association (UMA) complained a week ago that Kenya was throwing up non-tarrif barriers against Uganda exports that went against the spirit of the East African common market protocals.
Kenyan technocrats and enforcement agencies, were questioning the origins of Ugandan products, claimed our exports were counterfeit, had institutionalized harassment of our exporters, raided Ugandan warehouses and were issuing quotas on how much Uganda could export to them.
"These were all the more painful because Kenyan products were being allowed free access to Ugandan markets....
The EAC common market is a godsend for businesses in the region. It expands markets, can lead to greater job creation and eventual economic transformation.
It also should sharpen competitive advantages. With Uganda beginning to live up to its potential as the regional food basket, it will become increasing obvious that food production should be left to us.
"Trade wars are often triggered by one country trying to protect powerful lobbies at home.... The offending country will try to couch their actions in populist rhetoric, claiming to be protecting jobs but in truth it is to protect the interests of a well connected elite.
On the surface of it Uganda’s bargaining position seems weak – we are a landlocked country, who need the markets to expand production at home.
But on the other hand even if our trade balances with Kenya has shifted we are still a major market for their goods.
Government should consider some retaliatory action against Kenyan goods, which will at least make the EAC secreteriat in Arusha seat up and take notice.
"While an eye for an eye will eventually mean everybody goes blind, its hard to see what choice Uganda has at this point....
