This week was a hectic one as far as regional diplomacy
goes.
In Khartoum erstwhile enemies President Yoweri Museveni and
his Sudanese counterpart Omar El Bashir brought together rival leaders of South
Sudan, President Salva Kiir and Riak Machar to sign a peace deal, which it is
hoped will bring the near five year blood bath in our northern neighbour to an
end.
Meanwhile Ethiopia and Eritrea opened talks after almost 20
years of hostilities. The two countries went to war in 1998 over disputed land
along their common border, cutting off Ethiopia from its most convenient route
to the sea.
In Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta hosted his counterparts on
the Northern Corridor Integration Projects Museveni and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame.
The body language of the latter two did not betray any unusual tension between
the too which was a relief given the rumours that have been swirling around in
recent weeks.
During the Nairobi leg Museveni said that Uganda was
benefitting massively from the East African common market, reporting that the
dairy and maize industries in Uganda would have long been dead had it not been
for the free access they have to the region.
This last point is crucial and is one our leaders should
focus on rather than any parochial of perceived slights.
The Dairy Development Authority reported this week that
dairy exports more than doubled to $130m in 2017 from $60m the previous year.
It would not be a stretch to assume that this jump in export receipts has
something to do with regional demand.
Uganda’s ambition to be a middle income country in coming
years will be greatly aided by open markets, because our market is too small.
The same goes for our neighbours.
"The population of the East African Community (EAC) stands at about 170m. The urban population of the region is 34 million or just about the size of Uganda’s population...
However to unlock the potential of this market, billions of
dollars in joint infrastructure investments have to be put in place. The nature
of these investments and the long term obligations that come with them means
that as region our leaders cannot be seen to be bickering among themselves.
For example Ethiopia has invested massively in power
generation. It has more than doubled generation capacity to 4200 MW from 1800
MW, which is double their 2000MW peak demand. SA if that is not enough there is
an additional 7000 MW of power generation capacity under development.
Ethiopia needs to exports its power otherwise be saddled
with these white elephants. So it needs to mend fences with Eritrea, ensure
South Sudan cools down and demand its power. Ethiopia has also dialed down its
language in negotiations with Egypt, which is concerned about Ethiopia’s damming
of the Nile. Egypt too can be a massive market for its power.
Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda need to be pragmatic about their
dealings since investments in power, rail and road are critical for all three
and none of them can go it alone.
Clearly our mutual dependence, for decades blurred by artificial borders, is now at the fore of driving the geopolitical agenda. Which is as it should be....
Centuries of war in Europe came to an abrupt stop after the Second
World War with the creation of the European Coal & Steel Community (ECSC),
the precursor to the European Union. The ECSC was a recognition that to
rehabilitate Europe resources – physical and human had to be pooled for the
benefit of every one.
The politicians can maintain their little fiefdoms but the
economy should transcend the borders.
The people of the region have no issues. Our borders are
really only on paper if one were to see how border communities interact. It is
often that our leaders have their own issues that are extrapolated to the rest
of us.
However increasing dependence means that our leaders will
have to shelf their issues or resolve them personally to maintain their
relevance in our lives. We first approaching irreversibility on regional
integration and they are being forced to seat up and take notice.
