Little mentioned in the press, but since the beginning of
the month the contractors have been impounding the reservoir at the $590m Isimba
hydro-electric power dam.
Impounding, I learnt, is the act of filling the dam
reservoir with water. It is estimated that it will take about two weeks to
fill. This ahead of the anticipated commissioning of the 183 MW dam early next
year.
Not unlike watching paint dry, I imagine, but this event is still
an exciting time for all concerned.
While this was going on I paid a visit to the Karuma dam in
northern Uganda. The finishing touches are being done at the dam, which will
produce almost thrice as much power as Isimba dam.
"The $2.2b project has been in development since 2014 and is
only the second of its kind on the continent, the other being the Ruacana power
station in Namibia...
The unique feat of engineering will see water from the Nile
diverted down the to the power station that is almost 100 meters underground,
before the water is then ejected about 8 km downstream to re-join the river on
its journey to the Mediterranean.
I simplify, of course.
Deep in the bowels of the dam – they say enough rock to fill
15 Nambole stadiums was excavated to make it happen, it hit me like a sledge
hammer how much more work this country needs to do.
If the target is to generate 17,000 MW or the equivalent of
28 more Karumas, in the next ten years we are way behind schedule.
For starters going by the current average of $3m per MW cost
this ambition will cost $51b or twice the size of the Ugandan economy to make
it happen. Just makes you want to lie down and give up doesn’t it?
But giving up is not an option given that the population is
set to double every 24 years.
Over the last three decades the economy has grown at an
average of six percent during that time the economy has grown almost six fold
to the current $25b but poverty persists among many Ugandans, as unemployment
grows every year and the cost of living rises.
This only makes sense when you understand that a small part
of the population, the educated urban elite, have benefitted disproportionately
compared to the rest of the mostly rural population. They have enjoyed rising
incomes and improved social services, which add up in many cases to upper
middle income economy lifestyles and in some cases even first world lifestyles.
A major reason for this is the concentration of
infrastructure and services in the urban areas especially in Kampala.
Unlike in the rural areas where people still need to walk
some distance to a health center or a school or even a water source in Kampala
everything is within easy reach and now more and more a few clicks on your
phone away.
This access to everything to the already educated has a
compounding effect on their standard of living which sets them far apart from
their rural cousins.
"In order for the rural populations to play catch up we need,
no must, increase electricity coverage nationwide. Access to electricity would
ensure better health services – incubators, oxygen machines, refrigerators,
theatre lights are all powered by electricity; better education achievement –
kids would be able to study longer; more agro processing facilities to suck up
rural produce and hence higher incomes....
That the growth has not be spread more evenly – using access
to electricity as a measure, means we have a long way to go and particularly in
financing these much needed projects.
Two key things have to happen. One, we need to step our
resource mobilisation, not only local tax revenues but also our ability to
save. Secondly, we have to ensure that the relevant agencies to deliver these
infrastructure projects are well manned and resourced.
For starters we do not have the resources locally to generate
all the power we need, but with improved tax collections we would be able to
afford to borrow a significant proportion of it. The people arguing that we are
borrowing too much have it wrong, we actually are not borrowing enough to
bridge our infrastructure gap. This due to our low revenue collections – about
14 percent of GDP compared to a sub Saharan average of 16 percent, this alone
puts a cap on our ability to repay the loans and hence not make us a very
bankable proposition.
Given the growing economy and our huge informal sector just
tweaking the political will to collect from more people from whom tax is due
would go a long way to resolving our revenue issues.
And the second point about competent agencies that would
deliver on this project is why the current slapdash attempts at rationalising
government are dangerous. Enough said.
