A presidential candidate needs to win 50%+1 vote of the
popular vote to be declared winner. If this is not achieved by any candidate a
run off is scheduled in which the two top contenders face off.
Since 1996, when the current constitution was in effect, President
Yoweri Museveni has been in little danger of suffering a runoff. His best
showing was in 1996 when he won 75.5 percent of valid votes and his worst
showing was ten years later in 2006 when he managed 59.26 percent of the vote.
In more advanced democracies these numbers would qualify as
resounding or even landslide victories.
Following nominations Museveni and Kizza Besigye will face
off for the fourth time in as many outings, but this time former Prime Minister
Amama Mbabazi has thrown his hat into the ring.
Mbabazi’s previous prominent position in the NRM, made him
one to watch out for, but observers were dubious about the credibility of his
challenge divorced from the structure of the NRM.
Mbabazi’s rise to prominence as the possible single opposition
challenger and the size of his post-nomination rally at Nakivubo sent
strategists back to drawing table. Mbabazi, known more as a backroom operator
than a presser of the flesh, may have raised the very real possibility of a run
off for the first time in the last twenty years.
"A caveat on political rally numbers as they relate to voting patterns is in order at this point.
Besigye and his predecessor then Democratic Party president Paul Ssemogerere have always managed to muster massive crowds in Kampala and around the country but have struggled to manage a third of the cast votes when ballots hit the box...
Rally crowds are good for building the perception that one
is a real contender but the crowds that make up these rallies include
non-voters, curious types who just want to see the candidate and even people
from other camps, including those drives who have to go along with the crowd to
get to where they were going initially.
That being said however, in all elections since 1996 no
third candidate was able to create a crowd that rivalled that of Museveni or
Besigye, which puts Mbabazi in a special position, as king maker if he can
sustain the perceived momentum.
Perceived because one campaign rally does not a full
campaign make.
Museveni has canvassed this country multiple times in the
last five years, Besigye has done it at least once in the same period, when he was campaigning to be the flag bearer
of the FDC (Forum for Democratic Change) party their crowds were par for the
course.
Hypothetically speaking we know who make up Museveni’s
crowds – establishment supporters who have done well in this administration and
want a continuation of the good times (the same as supporters of the status quo
around the world). Besigye’s support base is made up of those who have found
themselves out in the cold, and have worked out their best chance at the high
table is to upset the status quo ( like any other major political challengers
around the world).
Then the question would be where would Mbabazi’s numbers
come from?
The tone of his campaign suggests that he is targeting the
disgruntled in the NRM, as well as opposition members who think a Besigye
challenge will end in predictable defeat.
"There is an interesting number that one imagines all the candidates are watching and that is the number of those who are registered voters who do not vote. These fence seaters have been growing in proportion since 2001 when it was at its lowest of 25 percent. In 2011 the figure was about 45 percent...
Conventional wisdom has it that these are normally aggrieved
with the government but see no worthy alternative for their vote.
Is this the year that the ambivalent come off the fence?
