In recent weeks the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) went to the country to choose its flag bearers for next years local and general elections.
It was a massive undertaking that covered almost 70,000 villages, saw hundreds present themselves to represent the NRM and thousands more turn up to vote.
Unfortunately, maybe unsurprisingly, violence, intimidation and other underhanded manoeuvres were reported, to leave enough people with a bad taste in the mouth. More on that later.
When the NRA/M marched into Kampala in January 1986, the totality of its membership was probably not more than 20,000, 34 years later it is a mass party with representation in every nick and cranny of this country.
Its detractors have argued that the party used state resources to set up the Resistance Council (RC) system, in the 20 years while the country was under the Movement system, which they then commandeered with the return to multiparty democracy in 2006.
The NRM on their part argue that they didn’t hijack the existing local government structures, but it is not their fault that most of the people manning those posts were sympathisers of the Movement anyway. A hard argument to counter.
Truth also is that that network is not very active through out the year and is activated during polls. Which means
"it comes as a surprise to most when the NRM comes out to play, even during these Covid times.... Which is a bit of a relief to NRM planners because the cost of sustaining that network year-after-year would be astronomical.
The NRM insist that they are a mass party. Judged against their rivals this not a hard claim to sustain. Despite the challenges that come with this and the financial constraints of it, the NRM insists on universal sufferage in choosing its flag bearers. Other parties prefer a collegiate system where delegates decide for the masses. The attraction for this is its cheaper and less messier.
Which brings us back to why the chaos in the NRM primaries. The NRM insist that overall the process went on much better than was depicted by the few incidents that hit the headlines.
But you know what they say,
when perception comes up against fact, perception wins all the time....
But even if we are to take them at their word, the little of the chaos we saw was chilling in its viciousness and worrying if it became more widespread. And the question persisted, “What is it about politics that makes it a do or die exercise?”
I think it is a case of the NRM being a victim of its own success. A victim, because this kind of chaos can get out of hand, engulf and bring down the NRM.
The success is that they have been able to build this amorphous organisation, literally from scratch. The challenge for the NRM is how does it manage this organisation to not only retain power but continue to be a political force regardless of whether the current champions are around or not.
"The internal frictions, represented by the chaos, need to be managed, brought to a reasonable conclusion so that the NRM remains a coherent force ready to take on all comers in the coming elections....
The life-or-death nature of the NRM primaries, unlikely to be replicated by any other party, is down to two major factors.
To begin with in many constituencies, becoming the NRM flag bearer almost guarantees onward election into parliament. As a result candidates invest a lot of money to get on the NRM ticket, rumour has it as much as sh500m, so a loss is the same as seeing your hard earned cash going up in flames. There are few Ugandans who would shrug off a sh500m loss.
To aggravate the situation, the way candidates raise this money through debt – often secured against family property, raises the stakes. A loss can mean a straight line drop into abject poverty...
Secondly and more worrying is that for many candidates, politics is the fall back position after they have become unemployable or have failed in business. The promise of a big salary and the leverage to extract money from the state – real or imagined, that comes with being an MP is a big attraction for these types.
This combination makes for a combustible mix that understandably leads to the violence we see around.
Maybe the redeeming factor of the NRM primaries was that voting was by lining up, reducing the scope for vote rigging and other shenanigans. It was testament to the desperation of the time that some nevertheless tried to rig the vote anyway.
Looking to the future, the NRM will do well to invest in dispute resolution within its ranks as a long term strategy to retain party coherence. It is unlikely that the thirst for the NRM ticket will reduce in the next 10 years so somebody needs to be thinking about this seriously and systematically.
