Over the last two
weeks the New Vision has been running a poll that sampled people’s opinions on
the Social, Political, Economic and Cultural issues in our society.
The poll, which randomly sampled more than 6,000 respondents
from 43 districts around the country is bound to be a trigger for many other
polls coming out in the lead up to the elections next year.
The poll showed among other things that President Yoweri
Museveni and his ruling NRM party still dominate our political conscience. The
opponents then flew into a frenzy, complete with frothing at the mouth in
denouncing the poll as unreliable. The NRM did not get around to it but some of
their leading lights were considering rubbishing the poll too, but for
understating their boss’ and party’s popularity.
Interesting for me was the sampling of people’s opinions on
what really exercises their minds about the conditions of their lives.
Health related issues came at the top, followed by the state
of our roads, water and sanitation, poverty, security, education, employment
and agricultural issues before corruption got mention. People were quite clear
about what they saw as inadequacies in the social services and infrastructure,
when quizzed further.
This threw up the contradiction, if these inadequacies were happening under the NRM’s watch how come the ruling party continued to be more popular than the opposition?...
Going by the results, which show that the overwhelming majority still think the NRM
is best placed to sort out these issues it might mean things are improving
generally – maybe not as fast as is wanted, and these improvements can be
attributed to Museveni and the NRM. Or it could mean that for the vast majority
of the voters they have known only the NRM administration so it could be a case
of better the devil you know than the angel you don’t.
It would be interesting in subsequent polls to find out why
the seeming contradiction.
I am convinced that the shortfalls in services and
infrastructure are more an issue of corruption than inadequate resources but
most people polled don’t seem to agree.
How can that be possible? There is no one who has not come
face to face with corruption. Is it possible that we have become desensitised
to graft, recognising it as the way to get things done, the new normal so to
speak, to the point that it is not on top of our minds as this nation’s great
challenge?
Obviously a cursory look at the symptoms that ail us is
preventing us from drilling down to the root cause of our malaise.
Returning to Museveni’s numbers. I was not surprised, and
expect subsequent well done polls will reflect the same, that he still leads
his rivals. Even less so was I surprised that the margin of his lead seems
unassailable too.
Things change but two things are feeding into this continued
popularity of Museveni.
One, that as President he can, and does, canvass this
country in the five years between elections. His facial recognition cannot be
rivalled by anyone, and anything, bar the telecommunication companies’ logos.
The voting process is not a scientific exercise and the one who is recognised
is more likely to get the vote. It doesn’t happen for Museveni alone. Barack
Obama or David Cameron don’t have to criss cross their countries pressing the
flesh in between elections, but that is because they can reach most voters on
television prime time, a similar advantage does not accrue to their rivals.
"And finally politics is not a popularity contest. The vast majority vote for one or the other person based on what they think they can benefit from them, Museveni has not been averse to play up this angle, urging electorates to vote his NRM MPs because the opposition ones just antagonise him and don’t push for projects to their areas....
But there are two groups beyond the usual suspects who would
have more than a passing interest in the polls. I am speaking cynically here.
There are his supporters who would not want him to have to big a lead over his
rivals because then the incentive to release funds into the campaign wold be
diminished. And then there are those across the floor, who would love to see
him have a huge lead then they can go out and make a strong case for more and
more cash to dislodge him from the top.
At the end of the day you need to follow the dollar to
understand these things.
