This week the happenings within the NRM have dominated our
collective imagination allowing us little space to ruminate over Lupita
Nyong’o’s Oscar or Vladmir Putin’s brinkmanship in the Ukraine or even the
confirmation of news that Manchester United defender and Captain Nemanja Vidic
was to leave at the end of this season.
To us onlookers the NRM MPs caucus meeting in Entebbe over
two days, looked like an exercise to dot the “i”s and cross the “t”s from the
earlier retreat in Kyankwanzi.
It was that and more, as it turned out.
Clearly
enough MPs within the party are convinced that Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi is bent on making a run for the presidency despite his continued protestations to the contrary and his appendage of signature to resolution to have President Yoweri Museveni as unopposed flag bearer for the party in 2016....
Beyond the drama the latest goings-on are about the
succession question in the NRM and subsequently Uganda.
With Museveni facing a constitutional last term – since
there is a cap on the age beyond which no one can run for president of 75
years, anyone with half an ambition is positioning himself for the eventuality
of a Museveni exit.
Love them or hate them but the NRM is the only nationally
represented political organisation in the country. It is no surprise that with
a critical election around the corner that the secretary general position will
come under intense scrutiny, that office in any party holds the key to the
kingdom.
In addition, as is becoming the case in every election the
intensity of contestation for party positions or nominations as the party’s
flag bearer, is increasing.
These tensions are a byproduct of the NRM’s longevity at the
top of Uganda’s politics. With every
five year political cycle new entrants into politics start jostling for space
with more established politicians, incumbents or otherwise. The NRM’s
attraction is that it is a proven winner and everyone loves a winner. The
tensions in other parties in relative terms are much more manageable.
Whereas
we would love party reinventions to be as sanitised as the word, often times because of the high political and personal stakes involved, orderly disagreements can quickly descend into bar room brawls with allegiances shifting very quickly....
The stakes are particularly high because this internal
contestation for the soul of the party has forced even the most determined fence-seaters to show their hand. One can expect when things calm down there
will be bodies strewn all around and many because their commitment wasn’t as
definitive one way or the other.
In addition one sees a youthful tendency within the party
straining forward to take positions of responsibility. But as they say many are
called and few are chosen, the loudest voices now will not necessarily be the
biggest winners when the dust settles.
"For the opposition, which got a near heart attack, at the show of unity displayed at Kyankwanzi a few weeks ago, they must be praying that the dissension in the NRM ranks continues to fester because, the truth be told, with their own internal polarisations no one has the capacity to take advantage of the NRM’s current problems...
Observers will be best served to hold judgement until much
later date.
It is inconceivable that the battle for control of the party
will go on indefinitely and jeopardise the party’s ability to mount a
successful campaign in 2016. This means that you can expect a few twists and
turns in the tale in coming weeks as the NRM negotiates this major turn in its
history.
