Today, as is the tradition on the first Friday of the month,
the US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the Non-Farm Payroll, an indicator
of the monthly change in the employment excluding the farm sector.
The Non- Farm payroll is probably the most important
economic indicator after the GDP monthly release, it gives an idea whether the
economy is growing or not. IF the economy is growing more jobs will be created
and if it is not jobs will be lost or at least no new ones will come on line.
Today expectations for an announcement of 232,000 new jobs
were created in October.
The European Union has a similar key indicator as do the UK
and Germany.
The economy is not there for its own sake but to serve the
people. Keeping people in employment is the sign of a good economy and bodes
well for future national stability. The trick is how to create jobs, especially
private sector jobs to keep the economy ticking so new jobs can be created … a virtuous
cycle.
It’s obvious. When people are engaged in economic activity
they have little time for rabble rousing and venting whatever grievances they
have in a way that is disruptive.
Which brings us around to the events in Bukina Faso. Last
week’s revolt was triggered by ex-President Blaise Campore’s attempt to extend
his term in office beyond the constitutional mandate. It was reported that
youth fearing that national assembly was about to rub stamp a constitutional
amendment to that effect burnt down the parliament and the rest is history.
Doesn’t it make you wonder who these youth were? How did
they get mobilised so quickly (Revolutions are never spontaneous regardless of
what their pro0moters say)?
"It is safe to say that revolutions occur during times of economic stress. Either the economy is not working at all or is not ticking along at a pace the population is used to...
A cursory glance at the economy of Bukina Faso shows where
the problem could lie. It has a GDP of $13b and for a 16m economy comes down to
about $800 per capita. But more worrying than that low number is the country’s
Human Development Index (HDI), which measures the extent to which social
services are being delivered to the people. The country was fourth from the
bottom in the world.
Seven in every ten export dollars come from gold and cotton
whose prices fluctuate wildly on international markets. Remittances from
Bukinabe abroad used to be a useful cushion but since neighbouring Ivory Coast
got embroiled in a civil war these have fallen from a quarter of GDP to about
one percent, as emigrant workers have returned home.
This bleak picture is a useful addition beyond Campore’s
attempted machinations in explaining the country’s implosion.
To quote Bill Clinton’s 1992 US campaign slogan, “It’s the
economy stupid”.
To prevent destructive revolution the economy has to work
and not only on paper. Improvements in national statistics have to register in
the people’s daily lives and there has to be constant improvement in this
respect. A tall order for any government.
To make the economy work the government has to concentrate
on improving the environment for businesses not only to survive but to thrive.
This means ensuring national stability and security, building physical
infrastructure, improving health and education services.
Easier said than done. Politics often gets in the way of
this simple but easy formula the end result being that even if the economy is
cruising along at a prodigious speed, the benefits are being enjoyed by a small
minority.
However an improved economy is no guarantee for political
longevity.
This week the Republican Party took back the US Senate from
the Democratic Party to control both houses of the US legislature, a situation
that can make for an uncomfortable last two years of President Barack Obama’s
administration. This despite recent findings that show that US economy under
Obama has put on 4.5 million jobs more than the Ronald Reagan era yet he has
two more years to go.
