Last week President Yoweri Museveni as commander in chief of
the armed forces announced a battery of promotions in the army.
Among the promotions was that of his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who he elevated to Brigadier from his former position of Colonel.
"Immediately we shared knowing glances, “Clearly he is grooming his son to takeover,” we told each other as we took a sip of our beers....
Some of us even intimated that the speed of his promotion to
a general was unparalleled in the armed forces – of course we forget Mugisha
Muntu meteoric rise to Major General and army commander or Salim Saleh before
him or Noble Mayombo’s rise to Brigadier, all achieved in less than the 12
years it’s taken Muhoozi to attain his current rank.
And the international press was sucked into the debate with
the “The Africa Report” reporting that “Museveni’s son has suddenly been
promoted raising speculation that he is being groomed to take over from his
father…”
My thoughts on whether Museveni is grooming his son to take
over or not are really irrelevant, what often has me tearing my hair out in
exasperation is the way the whole succession debate rears its head.
The constitution of Uganda has a well laid out succession
plan. If for whatever reason the presidency is vacant the Vice-President is
next in line followed by the Speaker and the Chief Justice, but no, the
conspiracy theorist in us rejects this formula. It is too straight forward and
transparent? There must be another plan.
In fact at every turn we harangue the president to show us
his successor.
“It still remains a mystery who President Yoweri Museveni
wants to succeed him …. Analysts have expressed fears that Kainerugaba’s
promotion was the beginning of a chain of events that could lead to an
undemocratic succession,” The Africa Report says.
To begin with, in democratic societies outgoing presidents do
not finger their successors, that is often left to their respective parties to
do.
In South Africa for instance it has been suggested that
Nelson Mandela’s favoured successor was Cyril Rwamaphosa, but the ANC party’s
internal dynamics were such that Thabo Mbeki eventually succeeded him.
In fact for a seating president to front and support a
successor would lead to an “Undemocratic succession.”
This is why democracies cannot be written into effect but
have to evolve.
"The practice of democracy is not only for the ruling elite but for the whole society, which once it has internalized the values of democracy can bring pressure to bear on the ruling elite and ensure they behave democratically....
Our insistence that Museveni should show us his successor, outside the institutionalized process may be a temptation too hard to resist.
The real focus should be on the institutions that would
usher in the succession when it comes; The legislature, the judiciary and
security institutions. Are they robust enough to resist the competing interests
to see the process through and sustain the result?
"As far as the constitution is concerned a successor is in place...
However the President, were he to step down of his own volition
can work through the NRM to indicate his successor and the party in turn once
it has a flag bearer, would throw its weight behind the chosen one in a
presidential election. All this I imagine, would happen within the structures
and practices of the NRM.
As it is now the president is damned if he does and damned
if he doesn’t. The chattering classes seem hell bent on second guessing his
every move.
Even if he announced tomorrow that he would step down at a
certain date, we would weave all sorts of theories about how he must have an
ace up his sleeve. And if he announced he was going to go on much longer, we
would still doubt his motives and cobble some conspiracy theory to explain why
things aren’t as they seem.
Our ability as citizens to leverage or have a say in the
process will depend on our organization, without that we might as well keep
quiet and let the process take its course.
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