ANATOMY OF A TERROR ATTACK --- THE DAY TERROR WAS VISITED ON KAMPALA

On July 11, 2010, near simultaneous explosions – heard as dull thuds around Kampala, went off at Ethiopian Village Restaurant in Kabalagala and at Kyadondo Rugby Club grounds in Lugogo, in Uganda’s worst terror attack.

Revelers had gathered at the two venues for the televised showing of the football World Cup between Spain and Netherlands.

The shock waves and shrapnel from the bombs accounted for seventy-six people. Many others were maimed, scarred for life; physically and mentally.

The next day, an Improvised Explosive Device (IED), was discovered at a bar, Makindye House, in Makindye a city suburb. Rigged to explode when the detonator, a phone rang but it malfunctioned.

Subsequently, Uganda Police sought assistance from the Federal Bureau of Investigations, and a probe commenced. Various people were then apprehended in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania and tried over four years in a Kampala court.

On Thursday 26^th May – 2146 days after the bombs went off, Justice Owiny Dollo passed judgement on the 13 suspects, bringing to a close a tale of international intrigue, terrorist conspiracy and misguided youth.

How plot was weaved

When was the attack on Kampala conceived?

It is hard to say but it is almost certain that the plot was hatched in Somalia, that occupies the horn of Africa with Kenya and Ethiopia to the west, Djibouti to the north and the Indian Ocean to the east.
A largely barRen land about two and half times the size of Uganda, it has been racked by civil conflict since the overthrow of Siad Barre in 1991, by a coalition of clans backed by Ethiopia and Libya.

Out of that intractable civil war has emerged the Al Shabaab, a Islamic youth movement that started as an offshoot of Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which for a time was in control of the country before the Ethiopian army and Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) routed them in 2006.

Since 2007 Al Shabaab has been waging war against the Africa Somalia Mission (AMISOM) – a UN sanction peace enforcement force manned by Ugandan and Burundi troops, and the Somali government.

With their back against the wall Al Shabaab put out an international distress call and set up training camps in its areas of operations to train fighters from all around the world.

It against this background of larger forces swirling around the globe, moved by events in as far flung places as Afghanistan and Washington DC and beyond their control or comprehension that Mahmoud Mugisha and Isa Ahmed Luyima, a former librarian at Kampala International University, met for the first time in an Al Shabaab training camp in the hot sands  of Somalia 2009.

Isa was known by the code name Basayevu, and was a member of the militant outfit.

Isa and Nsubuga were trained in hand to hand combat, fire arms and explosives in bases in Baidoa, Barawe and Kismayu, and engaged in several attacks on African Mission to Somalia( AMISOM) positions during the duration of their stay in Somalia.

The two would eventually become the Ugandan arm of a four man team tasked with leading the terror attack on Kampala.

On return to Uganda in February 2010, Isa, who was born in Kawempe, a northern Kampala suburb, was tasked with finding suitable Al Shabaab targets in Kampala.

Isa instructed Mugisha to rent a house in Kampala, to serve as the base point for the teams that would be involved in the mission.

Going by court testimony it is clear that Issa had seniority over Mugisha, who he carefully cultivated into Al Shabaab, convincing him that he had a religious obligation to wage Jihad, holy war against the tormentors of Somali Jihadists fighting to wrest their country from the clutches of the infidels.

With Mugisha and seven others, training continued for the Kampala attack in a rented house in Namasuba, a southern surburb on Kampala, on the only road leading to the country’s international airport form the capital.

Previously Issa had rejected a house rented by Mugisha in Nakulabye.

In April Mugisha and Habib Suleiman Njoroge travelled to Nairobi to collect the explosives, from a house in South B.

The house in South B was registered in the name’s of Mohammad Ali Mohammad, who was part of the four man team leading the attack

The items; four green plastic bags, were loaded into the boot of the Land Cruiser, under the watchful eye of Nyamandondo, who then proceeded to Uganda.

Before returning to Kampala for the final mission Mugisha  made a quick detour to Somalia  and fought in several fierce battles for Al Shabaab in which they they attacked several AMISOM bases, and also contended with retaliatory attacks.

On May 9, 2010, Seleimani Hijar Nyamandondo, a henchman of the Mohammed Ali Mohammad of the Kenyan wing of the operation, and Mugisha brought explosive material and the suicide vests into the country.

Issa in a statement to the police said he had received the suicide vests from Nyamandondo following an advance called from one Hanif from Nairobi who alerted him that they were on the way.

Nyamandondo was driving a green Toyota Land Cruiser, with Tanzanian registered license plate number T595 ADH, which car would lead to his eventual arrest months down the road.

They met at National Theater, drove to Java’s Café Bombo road where they had tea, before they went to Namasuba.

 The explosives were kept in the house of Edris Nsubuga, Issa’s friend.

The two had met in 2004, when they both served in the Kampala International University library. They struck up a relationship which came in handy when Issa was helped Edris through a rough patch with his wife, who had known Issa before they were married.

Nsubuga, claimed he did not know that explosives had been deposited at his house until a month later.

“The day he came to pick his “things” packed in a plastic bag that I had kept all along, thinking they were his domestic items brought by his friend form Kenya in May, I got terrified,” Nsubuga wrote in a rambling confession to President Yoweri Museveni in which he blamed Issa for roping him into the murderous plot.

“He called me to the room where they had been kept and I found him seated on the floor, with the items laid on the floor. He seemed to be checking, sorting and confirming what was in the bag. He told me “Eno y’esonga (this is the issue)”



THE GENESIS

On July 11, 2010, near simultaneous explosions at Ethiopian Village Restaurant in Kabalagala and at Kyadondo Rugby Club grounds in Lugogo.Revellers had gathered at the two venues for the climax of the televised football World Cup match between Spain and Netherlands.

Seventy-six people perished, several others were maimed, some for life; physically and mentally.

The next day, an Improvised Explosive Device, was discovered at a bar complex, Makindye House, located in the city suburb of Makindye.It was rigged to explode when the phone rang but it malfunctioned. Police bomb squad recovered it the next day.

Somalia’s militant outfit Al shabaab, with strong links to global patron All Qaeda, claimed responsibility. It was the outfit’s maiden attack beyond Somalia’s borders.

The attack was a show of intent and a push for a credit rating to showcase ability to implement its threat to strike internationally and receive approval and recognition from Al Qaeda.

Al Shabaab has sought the affections of Al Qaeda’s central leadership since early 2008  The group champions the same philosophy, and Al Qaeda, has constantly issued many public statements and pledging allegiance to the global  outfit.

In June 2008, Al Shabaab supremo, Mukhtar Abu Zubair, outed a propaganda video, exalting Al Qaeda principals Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, and Abu Yahya al Libi.

In September 2009, Al shabaab released an attention seeking  propaganda video titled, ‘At Your Service, Oh Osama’ with incessant voices in the video speaking glowingly of the now slain supremo.

In February 2010, the outfit justified its threats and attack strategy, saying in a statement: “Jihad in the Horn of Africa must be combined with the international jihad led by the al Qaeda network’.

The Afghan trained Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Ali, set up the first militant training camps in Somalia, and was behind the radical and aggressive communications strategy, calling for massive recruitment.

The propaganda videos, carefully crafted with professional precision, with promises of better life and abundant rewards.

To attract international appeal, it has strategically broadcast English language videos and audios, imploring youth on essence of Jihad. A franchise designation is an invaluable tool, giving credibility and a known brand name to groups seeking to attract aspiring Islamist militants.  Additionally, it buffers their financial muscle, as they benefit from the logistical and financial generosity of Al Qaeda’s deep pockets.

The main weapons and tactics synonymous with Al shabaab include suicide bombs, roadside improvised explosive devices, and mortar attacks.

But AMISOM troops have responded, securing a big portion of the land, and minimised the threats.

Nsubuga said on seeing what Issa identified as explosives, he was badly shaken, though he denied this when Issa asked him.  Nsubuga couldn’t help noticing though that Issa was cool, calm and collected that day, before he left with the explosives.

According to his confession Nsubuga was instrumental in scoping the terror targets. A regular man about town, despite his Muslim faith, Nsubuga knew what to look for when Issa was looking for suitable sites for his nefarious plans.

Among the places they looked over were several bars and restaurants in Kabalagala before the settled on the Ethiopian Village, Kyadondo Rugby ground and Makindye House for their lax security.

Nyamandondo spent the night at Naigara Hotel, off Entebbe road, a few meters away from the Najjanankumbi mosque, and departed the next day. Isa booked into the same hotel, a single floor affair, with a brick wall lined with old palm trees, under the pseudo name ‘Moses’.

Investigators were later able to ascertain that Issa had been at the hotel when a handwriting expert analysed a specimen of his handwriting with that of the queried guest registration book that had the name ‘Moses’, and found that they were a match.

Shortly after the explosives arrived in the country three Kenyans – Kaka, Kakasule and one other whose name he could not remember came into the country, who Issa were informed were part of the plot.

Kaka and Kakasule lived with Issa for a week before Kaka and the unnamed Kenya returned to Mogadishu via Nairobi. They were restless and had got tired of waiting.

A Somali boy, maybe in his mid to late teens, Morsul, came in from Nairobi to replace Kaka.

Another operative Hanif made his way to Kampala around the same time and it turned out he was the man who made the final connections before the bombs were dispatched to the target sites.

Issa singled out the Ethiopian village for attack because the Ethiopian had dislodged the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) had continued to fight the Al Shabaab.

He had expressed some reluctance to attack sites where Ugandans patronised but was accused of nationalism and of being insensitive to the havoc the UPDF had wrecked in Mogadishu.

However on the eve of the bombing Issa discovered that he was understaffed. The Somali and Kenyan bombers did not know their way around so he had to conscript locals to deliver them to the bob sites.

Out of desperation he called upon his brother Hassan and Nsubuga. The two were introduced to each other days before the operation, when they were carrying out surveillance on Makindye house.

On the eve of the attack Issa at a meeting at Majestic Plaza, on Williams street, he gave both Hassan and Nsubuga the keys to the Namasuba house, which they were to use to access the house and clean it out after the attack.

Issa’s instructions to the duo were short and succinct: Haruna’s job was to transport one of the suicide bombers, Kakasule, to Ethiopian Village Restaurant, and also drop off the explosive bag at Makindye House.

While Nsubuga was supposed to take the Somali teen, Morsul to Kyadondo rugby club.

He also instructed Nsubuga, but not his brother, to blow himself up in the event that security agents were about to arrest him.

Before they proceeded to Namasuba, they made a stopover at Mutaasa Kafero Plaza, and purchased two mobile phone handsets; a Nokia 3510 and an MTN Kabiriti, which were to be used as detonating devices in the mission.

On the eve of the blasts, Haruna took Nsubuga to the Namasuba Safe House and introduced him to the suicide bombers as a brother in the struggle.

Issa left for Mombasa on the eve of the terror attacks.

On the fateful day at 4pm, Haruna, who had purchased snacks for the suicide bombers, met Nsubuga at Kenjoy Supermarket along Entebbe Road. Nsubuga was told to report to the Namasuba house at 6pm.

A demonstration on the assembly of the explosives, was arranged for an already afraid Nsubuga but Haruna comforted him, with reassurance that all that was required was to make a phone call to the wired mobile device, that would be triggered to explode.

Haruna ordered Nsubuga to blow himself up in the event of detection by security personnel. Thereafter, Nsubuga proceeded to Kyadondo Rugby Club, with the other suicide bomber, Mursal.

Nsubuga and the suicide bomber Mursal had contrasting feelings about the mission. While Nsubuga was a nervous wreck, and wanted to abort the operation, Mursal was ecstatic that it was the perfect opportunity to strike because of the multitude of merry making revellers.

Nsubuga had no choice but to place two bags on the table nearby with the laptop bag containing the explosives.

Mursal became impatient and signaled to Nsubuga that it was perfect timing to detonate But a quick-thinking Nsubuga cautioned him that Police officers had upped their patrol.

Mursal heeded, and the first half ended with singer Bebe Cool coming onto the stage.

They later concurred that the detonation be executed at 11:15pm.

Mursal then gave Nsubuga a thumbs-up to signal that all was set. Nsubuga responded with the same sign in acknowledgement, and headed towards the main entrance, to avoid becoming a victim, since he had rejected suggestions that he become a suicide bomber.

Time check 11:15pm, and the nerves got the better of Nsubuga, who instead called another friend to chat about the match. Shortly thereafter, a loud bang reverberated from the side where the giant screen was stationed. Some boda boda riders, stationed at the main entrance, speculated that a transformer could have blown.

Nsubuga knew that there was no turning back. He immediately made the much dreaded call to the phone that was connected to the carefully-wired device, which then ignited the second explosion.

He got on a boda boda, which headed to the taxi park, from where he boarded a taxi to his Najjanankumbi residence.

Nsubuga heard breaking news on the blasts from one of the radio stations relaying the live match commentary.

******************


The 2010 World Cup was a particularly special one for Africa as it was being hosted by the continent – in South Africa, for the first time.

And the final was interesting too. In finalists Spain and the Netherlands we were assured of a first time winner. The last time such a final happened was in 1978 when again Netherlands was pipped to the top honours by Argentina, the host nation.

The sense of history that surrounded the event was probably lost on three young adults, who with their friends went to Kyadondo Rugby Club and the Ethiopian Village to witness the televised finale.
Yusuf Kiganda testified that on the day he and five other friends – Brian Kivumbi, Brian Kawooy, Nicholas Kyambadde, Brenda Nabachwa nd Trevor Mawejje boarded a taxi, outside the Bank of Uganda on Kampala club at around 5 pm.

At the club Kiganda remembers that they were among the first to arrive and had were spoilt for choice in where they could seat. They sat a few seats from the front not far from where Morsul would blow himself up.

The match described by BBC’s Paul Fletcher reporting from Johannesburg, was tense and bad tempered – 14 yellows were shown and a Dutch man sent off. Though Spain dominated possession, the match had few moments of real quality and went deep into extra time. The winning goal was scored by Iniesta in the 116^th minute.

But Kigadanda and his friends did not get to see the goal as around the 75^th minute all hell broke lose when the first bomb went off at Kyadondo grounds.

“Suddenly, there was a big bang, and I could not tell what had happened.I found myself lying on the ground. My friends were also down. I did not realise they were dead, and I never knew what had happened to me,” Kiganda recalled.

Apparently he had been flung out of his chair by the bombs shockwaves, his body lacerated by the shrapnel and he had lost all sense of hearing.

David Muwemba a few meters away may have been saved by his drink.

“As I reached for my beer under the chair, I raised my head, saw smoke, and thought there was a power interruption.I felt drops on my shoulder, and thought it was rain but realised it was blood,” he testified before Justice Owiny Dollo.

He had the presence of mind to grab his friend Bonita Nakato’s hand head … stumbling and tripping over fallen revellers towards the main entrance of the club.

His other friends, Frank Mukwaya, Peter Oye and Peter Byekwaso were felled where they sat.








HOW MAKINDYE BOMBING BACKFIRED

At about 9:30pm, waiter at the Icelink bar Joseph Buzoya, served drinks to his boss was, madam Charlotte and her husband. Shortly thereafter, he heard a phone ringing and I saw a black bag on the tiled floor.

He did not touch the bag because people were many, as he feared to be mistaken for a thief. Buzoya worked as a cashier for the day, since the cashier was away.’

The following day, at about 3pm, out of curiosity, he unzipped the bag after co-workers who had kept the bag, pressured him into doing so to ascertain ownership and demand money from the owner.

The workmates Fiona and Joseph Tembo, convinced him to ascertain the contents, since many patrons usually forgot property at the bar.

Buzoya speculated that it could be a bomb because of the devastating twin attacks of the previous night. But Fiona and Tembo dismissed it as a joke. They were determined to ascertain the owner of the bag, as they hoped to be given a reward.

When the black laptop bag was unzipped, it contained a cable, the size of a laptop charger, a torn cloth, a wooden object that had started decaying, and white masking tape. Buzoya hurriedly zipped the bag and looked for the manager, after realising that his workmates were anxious and querying why he was rummaging through someone’s property, while other patrons watched, and wanted to be attended to.

But since the manager was not around, Buzoya sought advice from a obne Moses, worker at the nearby Hakuna Matata pork  joint, who  said the prudent thing was to call the Police. Thereafter, one of the customers,only introduced as Kabuye, called the Police.

Shortly, security personnel from Katwe Police station, cordoned off the area, and demanded for the bag. After about 20 minutes, Counter Terrorism Police arrived and combed the entire area with three sniffer dogs.

The bar was evacuated, and  an 100-metre no go-zone was instituted at the crime scene. But curious people gathered and were hesitant to leave. Police chased them away.

After 30 minutes, Police issued a statement that they had discovered a second bomb. The told us that they found it hidden in the hedge.

The workers were sent home, and summoned to Katwe Police station the next day where they recorded statements.

 NSUBUGA CONFESSION TO MUSEVENI 

The following is an abridged version of the confession statement of Mohamed Ali Mohamed. Although court rejected it on the premise that it was recorded irregularly, prosecution relied on its contents to incriminate the accused.

Nsubuga writes to Museveni, begs for pardon

Self-confessed Kyaddondo Rugby Grounds bomb detonator Nsubuga, pleaded guilty after a soul-searching talk with slain prosecutor Joan Kagezi at Luzira prison.

He volunteered information and asked President Yoweri Museveni for forgiveness.

Contents of Nsubuga’s letter, dated October 27, 2010, were highlighted during mitigation, after he was  sentenced to 25 years in prison.

Nsubuga Edris,
Luzira Upper Prison,
Remand Section,
27 October 2010

HE Yoweri K Museveni,
The President, Republic of
Uganda
President’s Office, Nakasero
Kampala,
Uganda.

Dear Sir,
Re: Request for Forgiveness and Pardon
It is only through the power of God that I have this opportunity to write to you, taking into account the many tasks that are keeping you busy. However, I feel very humbled at this opportunity.

Your Excellency, it is very absurd that I was involved in the acts that tragically shook the nation that you lead, on July 11, 2010. I have always felt obliged to apologize and ask for forgiveness from you, the President of this country.

I am a man of sound mind, who honestly just happened to be caught in a web of delusions, deceit, manipulation, hatred and spite towards everything that was going on in my life as well as threats from a trusted friend who happens to be a member of Al Shabaab.

At the time, I had domestic problems with my wife and I took him in as a confidant because he happened to know her before I did. He often helped me out by talking to her and fortunately, sometime we would get along.
I believe he realised my weakness at that time and he took advantage of the moment to delude me and sow that evil seed in me. He intensely swarmed me, always telling me to change and better my ways, and rarely did he miss talking about issues concerning Somalia.

He often called me early in the morning to tune in to Al Jazeera [television news network] and watch the new developments in Somalia, if there were any. When I look back, I believe he was just inducing hatred and bias into me at the time because he had never mentioned his mission.

I was totally ignorant and less concerned about the Somalia issues as I had my problems to solve. Once, I informed him about my intended trip to Rwanda, to try to find a job, and he stopped me from going, the reason being that he wanted to meet me urgently before I left.

I did meet him and that is when he revealed his mission to me, though concealing the details for his own [benefit]. He started by quoting some verses from the Qur’an, emphasising how I had to answer this call from God; employing a lot of silver tongued, confusing and bewildering promises.

It is through his tireless efforts, [and]repeated exhortations that I succumbed to this conviction, not knowing how grave it was and the consequences that lay ahead – all because of ignorance.

Your Excellency, I acknowledge that I made a very irrational decision of accepting to help him. However, I believe anyone under my situation would have been susceptible to such confusion and conviction, unconsciously.

He asked me to move with him around any hangouts that I knew that were frequented by whites – since I am an outgoing person. He said that was my simple role in answering this call from God.

His aim was to punish the Americans for their support against his colleagues and to intimidate the Ugandan government out of Somalia as well.

This was around June 19 because on June 21, he informed me that he had received visitors from Kenya to help him with his mission, so we had to visit the places as soon as possible since his superiors had grown impatient.

His interest was places without tight security and indeed, he was pleased with Kyadondo Rugby Club, which we did visit around June 26. All this time, he was still concealing the details of his mission and spoke little to me.

Once again, I informed him about my intended trip to Rwanda, but he told me that I could not go because there was no way he was going to explain that to his bosses, who, to my understanding, were always coming in from Kenya. He emphasized that they could not take that excuse and he reminded and reassured me about how my role was so simple.

The day he came to pick his “things” packed in a plastic bag that I had kept all along, thinking they were his domestic items brought by his friend from Kenya in May, I got more terrified.

He called me to the room where they had been kept and I found him seated on the floor, with the items laid on the floor as well. He seemed to be checking, sorting and confirming what was in the bag.

He told me in Luganda “eno y’ensonga”, meaning, “this is the whole issue”.
He told me they were explosives to be used in his mission. I complained that all along, I thought that I had been keeping household items.

He responded by asking me whether I was scared. I told him I was not, although I was trembling and very scared. He seemed so strong willed, determined and firm, and again assured me that I shouldn’t be scared. He left with his explosives, and the following days were full of uncertainty.

I became hesitant to answer his phone calls until we met in town and he gave me a dire warning that his bosses were not at all pleased with my behaviour.

I told him I had made my final arrangements to leave for Kigali and my wife was at home as well, so I could not help him anymore. He responded by speaking to me seriously, in a soft tone, that I could not leave, lest I am treated as a traitor.

He said a traitor is punished by beheading. I realised the true gravity of the whole matter. Without tasking your patience, briefly that is how it started and was carried out, as per what I stated.

However, I want to affirm that I value life, peace and harmony, even though I cannot explain much about this one fateful moment when I took this emotional decision of accepting.

Sir, however much I was under strict orders, I got some courage under all that fire to defy some orders. I was able to convince and stop the suicide bomber from entering the crowd with the bag of explosives and I tried my best to leave it somewhere far from the crowd, without informing him.

Even then, I had not imagined how lethal these explosives were because I had been lied to that they were simply for intimidation. I was also seriously cautioned to blow up myself in case any security official closed in on me in order not to fall into their hands, which would hinder future plans and plots.

I did detonate the explosives in the bag just to save myself; I did not want these wretches to hold me accountable for not doing as told, but I tried my best to place the bag far away from the crowd.

After the incident, I was full of anxiety, anguish and uncertainty. However, when I got arrested, I voluntarily revealed how everything had happened. Honestly, I was not tortured to do so by the men whom I had been seriously cautioned not to let myself fall into their hands.

I did so because I did not and do not believe in that cause. I revealed the whereabouts of my contact and also information about his friend and would-be partner, Mugisha Mahmoud, who was supposed to blow himself up originally, but was at large.

I also revealed information about the movement of funds and the style of communication to one another. I have learnt a lot through stories during the time I have been in custody, about how the organization of Al-Shabaab conducts its work.
I know how they recruit, who they recruit, how they communicate, and their disguise in public, and how they successfully propagate their evil doctrines.

I am totally averse to their aggressive acts and this is why I am begging and requesting, with all due respect, to be given chance to redeem myself by giving back to the nation and people that I harmed, wronged, transgressed and put in such indescribable grief when I involved myself in these acts.

Your Excellency, we are yearning for a solution, but the big question is, ‘is there one?’ Of course yes; if you would let me now substantiate what I assert.

Through my study and analysis, the strategy I have devised to achieve this great purpose requires the [least] of means, yet there will be astounding results. My strategy is similar to the one you employed when combating the AIDS scourge when you assumed the leadership of this country. This strategy is AWARENESS and indeed, you succeeded significantly.

The task calls for tremendous fortitude, but I get the inspiration from yourSowing the Mustard Seed, where the idea to liberate this country was just in one man’s mind, but it later became a significant reality.

First of all, the problem arises from feigning tolerance towards these few, determined individuals who pause as Sheiks in our midst and are busy propagating these evil ideologies just because there is freedom of speech and worship that you allowed, Sir.

These individuals have ventured in translating the Qur’an with their interpretations greatly influenced by their own prejudices and bias. They have a sickness that has let their egos overshadow their sense of logic and understanding.

They are fully inflated with pride and lack genuine humility, only being hungry for violence just to whet their appetites. They have also resorted to foul means to subvert the religion and have cultivated a predilection for promises that inevitably strike, bewilder, confuse and convince the poor, ignorant listeners.

They are merely winking on flimsy pretences based on prejudiced and misinterpreted verses of the Qur’an, thus succeeding in propagating their philosophies and keeping their audience under the much needed subjugation.

From their eloquent speeches and deportment, they are able to draw attention anywhere and win the hearts of ignorant youth. They have imputed that the Sheiks preaching against their evil ways are traitors.

They do mock democracy, yet the smugly wink with gratification at their unnatural ways of violence. These aggressors will never be satisfied with their relentless assaults, attacks and attempts on people’s lives.

Your Excellency, we have a more sombre responsibility of extricating our ignorant young Muslim and non Muslim youth from the spiritual quagmire into which they are wallowing.

By employing the help of young Muslim and non-Muslim scholars who are without fear or favour and are ready to suffer obloquy for their convictions, we can be able to debunk the lies of these wretched men and prevent the youth from pandering these many prejudices.

There are genuine Sheiks who have tried to preach right, but their timidity cannot permit them to do so anymore, citing loss of their lives, as the topic of jihad has become too provocative.

We should not make half-hearted and skimpy efforts in this cause; we should endure greatly, and I believe that in tackling this issue publicly through organized seminars, TV and radio talk shows, and so on, the youth easily get an insight and they will not refuse to acknowledge the truth and facts.

The hearts that are hard will be melted and the tender, doubtful and ignorant ones that require support will be diverted from falling into the snares of evil.

More regeneration and religious reform will be achieved and all the doctrines of these evil men will ultimately crumble to dust. Prejudices die hard and none of these wretches would like to lose their adherents, but with endurance, we will win the would-be adherents from such conviction.

As a victim of manipulation, I’m ready to set forth and grasp fully the enormity of this task in order to limit the scope of propagation of evil and terrorism and prevent our country from living in fear and trepidation inflicted on its people at the behest of these aggressors.

Your Excellency, you have led this nation from ruins to its much enjoyed peace and happiness. The people of Uganda owe you gratitude and a debt they cannot repay.
It is the same treasure I am humbly requesting to preserve, and I am strongly convinced that this era of panic, terror, hatred and spite caused by these men will end.

Your Excellency, once more, I affirm that I am totally and honestly averse to these acts and I condemn them. It is that I only feared for my life and was left with no choice but only a small opportunity of avoiding to harm more people.

I hope you are heeding to my plea to fulfill my endeavour. I also pray and hope that in you, I will find the [abounding] grace and mercy you have always possessed as a generous patron, parent and leader, even during times of anger, to personally forgive and pardon me as a delinquent who acknowledges and regrets my mistake.
May God bless and guide you in the forthcoming general presidential elections.

Yours faithfully,

Edris Nsubuga

UNRA OFFICIALS ARE WORSE THAN TERRORISTS

In the last ten years I have seen the improvement of a major road – Gayaza road and the addition of four new roads – including the northern bypass, around the area in which I live.

The benefits – though I take them for granted now, have included a faster commute to work, because of the better quality of the roads and because I am spoilt for choice. There has also been a dramatic increase in property prices in the area as a result.

They say, while the middle class and poor measure wealth in money the rich measure it in time. So by saving time for the people of my area it can be argued there has been an increase in economic activity. How then would you explain the creeping menace of traffic jams to my previously serene environment?

Hold that thought.

Last week two events happened on the same day that on the surface seem unrelated but not on closer scrutiny.

There was the conviction of the suspected terrorists responsible for the 2010 attack at the Kyadondo Rugby grounds, the Ethiopian Village and the failed attempt on the Makindye House.

On the same day Lady Justice Catherine Bamugemereire was handing over her report on the probe into the Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA).

The probe which had our jaws hitting the ground every morning with new allegations of theft on an unprecedented scale during the duration the inquiry, collated all these and revealed that government lost sh4trillion in dubious contracts, which money was good for 3,647km  but the people of UNRA only managed to build 1500km. This out of a total expenditure of sh9trillion.

It is impossible to put an economic value to life. But if every Uganda accounts for about $800 in economic output a year, the death of the 76 on that night six years ago has cost us – using a straight line calculation, about $364,800 (sh1.3b). Or if we use a purchase power parity per capita GDP of $1,638, the loss to the economy more than doubles to sh2.6b.

This is understated in many ways not least of all because many of the victims were middle class Ugandans who were contributing more than the assumed $1,600 a year. Secondly, it is not inconceivable that the victims were supporting others through school, whose economic contribution may have come due. And finally let us assume too that their contribution was growing from year to year over the last six years.

Given all that let us inflate their contribution to five times or sh13b or let us go out on a limb and say 100 times or sh260b in lost economic value.

View this against the sh4trillion, the known loss by UNRA since 2008 and you have to wonder which the real tragedy was.

And we haven’t even begun to try and compute the improvements in economic output that the addition 2,100km would have thrown up if they had been laid across the country.  Or to compare oranges to oranges how  many people have died for lack of health facilities or drugs or even for from road accidents caused by roads that have fallen apart on account of shoddy workmanship or which don’t exists because some fat cats have taken their cut and subsequently what has been the loss to he economy as a result.

"If you can calibrate terrorism UNRA makes Issa Luyima, the mastermind of the July 11 bombings, look like an angelic choir boy...

White collar crime is a euphemism. It suggests that because the thief does not break into your house and bludgeon you to death with a hammer but, by the stroke of a pen shifts millions, billions or trillions in UNRA’s case, to individual accounts, it is a lesser crime.

Terrorism is a heinous crime that can neither be justified nor explained away. Its shock value comes from the drama of explosions, mutilated bodies and unpredictability. We understate the economic damage of a terror attack and even more so the social and emotional impact of human impact.

But the very fact that even despite our most ambitious calculations and we cannot even begin to compare to the loss due UNRA officials makes you wonder –no, shudder!

So to return to the possible economic benefits of the lost roads to our users.

To begin with the sh9trillion total UNRA spent during the period it is estimated would have added and an additional 5000 km of paved road to this country. Or more than doubled our current stock of 4000 km. it is possible most of our trunk roads would be completed and the ensuing economic output would not have us yawning today.

Thirty years ago to get from Busia to Bushenyi was a two day trip. You would leave Busia at  6 am in the morning and arrive in Kampala about 5pm. Sleepover and set off before dawn the next morning to arrive in Masaka for lunch, Mbarara in the early evening and Bushenyi after dark.

Better roads now make such a trip seven hour affair. Theoretically you can do three round trips in the time it took you to do a one way trip in the 1980s. Meaning you can now carry six times more passengers, matooke, cattle or milk now than then. And these increased activity feeds into the greater economy.

And what is the distance from Busia to Bushenyi by road? 515km!

Do the math!

TACKLING TERROR ONE UGANDAN AT A TIME

On Thursday the high court found eight of 13 suspects guilty of involvement in the Kampala bombings of July 11, 2010, in which 76 people died and many more were injured.

The attacks of Kyadondo Rugby club and the Ethiopian Village were one of Uganda’s worst terrorist attack.

The Lord’s Resistance Army bloody rampage through northern Uganda tops the list, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) operations in western Uganda, especially at Kicwamba technical college in Kasese and the bombs of Kampala at the beginning of the century have their pride of place in this grim narration of our history.

Over the last five or so years and 82 witnesses later an intricate web of intrigue, geopolitical posturing and downright ruthlessness has been drawn during the trial of the perpetrators of this crime which was planned in Somalia and executed by Ugandans, Kenyans and Tanzanians.

Among the motivations for it were the desire by Al Shabaab, an offshoot of Somalia’s Islamic Courts Union (ICU) was to as well as punish Uganda for being part of the Africa Mission for Somalia (AMISOM) wanted to win favour with Al Qaeda, by then still regarded as the top terrorism enterprise in the world.

The Ugandans who participated in the attack were systematically and consistently brainwashed over months, even years to believe that Ugandans deserved this fate because of how Somalis were suffering at home.

The common denominator among the Ugandan perpetrators – apart from their Islamic faith, was their youth and economic difficulty, as most of them were out of jobs when they came under Al Shabaab’s influence.

"Clearly a bad economy can serve as the “quarter guard” for terrorism....

It is clear that growing income and wealth disparities leads the lesser privileged into the hands of criminal and terrorist gangs if only as a means of survival. Hence the urgency to see Uganda’s growth spread more equitably through improved service delivery and reduced corruption.

But also what came out during the trial is that certain influencers in the society are behind the scenes abetting these criminal acts either through their own warped convictions or as a way to profit, regardless of who gets hurt.

Nations are designed so that the state can be responsible for our collective wellbeing. Many times this collective wellbeing may come to the discomfort of some, the price we have to pay for peace and stability.

My delay to an important appointment is secondary to the maintaining of traffic laws or my need to guarantee my own security at home does not allow me to cut off a public road or my taste for loud cacophonous music does not allow me to blast my system into the wee hours of the morning. In denying me the right to do the above inconveniences me for the benefit of the majority. It’s an unwritten contract we sign with the state.

Inspector General of Police General Kale Kayihura in explaining the increasing presence of anti-terror police on our streets, argued that the police had to be correct all the time while the terrorists have to be correct only once to cause an impact.

Unfortunately, when the police do their job well there are not appreciated but if they put a foot wrong even once they are reviled as good-for-nothing thugs.

"Beyond the material, a common ideology has to be developed that locates us as Ugandans whose love for country comes before all else....

That is not a fashionable way to speak in a globalised world, where individual rights are in the ascendance and the concept of the nation is under threat. But in studying these young men who pledged themselves to a destructive code, economic hardship served as an opportunity, but indoctrinating them was all the more easier because the brainwashers were not replacing one conviction with another. They found these young men’s minds fallow and ready to fall for any propaganda that was pressed upon them.

Hopefully justice has been passed but this is also a wakeup call, for us to do some soul searching of our own. Living in the center of the storm, this very volatile region of ours, our economic weaknesses may be the very opening our enemies exploit to do us harm.

SON OF THE SOIL RETURNS WITH OPTIMISM

Dominic Barton, boss of global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company is tickled pink by his new Ugandan passport.

A Canadian citizen, who calls London his primary home, was born in Uganda in 1962 in Mukono, where his father was visiting lecturer at the Bishop Tucker Theological College, which is now a part of Uganda Christian University.

A visit to Mukono on the weekend, to among other things see the place where he was raised – he left Uganda 1969, was not dampened by his failure to find the actual building, “I couldn’t find my house, the place has changed, it is all built up now.”

Nevertheless he was glad to be back and he had some thoughts in the issues that the continent in general and Uganda can look forward to or guard against.

"Off the top of his head, the opportunities for future progress will revolve around our young population, natural endowments and how we embrace technology but warns there has to be a sense of urgency among bureaucrats to keep the momentum going...

 “I am bullish on Africa. It still the second fastest growing region only south east Asia is growing at a faster arte… when you disaggregate take out north Africa and all that’s going on there, and the effects of oil you see 13 economies growing very quickly, faster than before and Uganda is one of them, “ said Barton, who is also the chairman of US President Barak Obama’s African policy think-tank.

The Arab spring that kicked off in Tunisia at the end of 2011 has dampened growth in North Africa, where Libya and Egypt have also been affected. Oil prices fell to record lows in February cratering at $26 a barrel from highs of $140 a few years ago, a development has affected oil producers like Nigeria and Angola aversely.

In Uganda on his way from the World Economic Forum, which was held in Rwanda last week, Barton – who was last in Uganda in 1991 said he sees progress and senses a willingness to keep it going.

“I think the opportunities are in the consumer goods area, this is a young urbanising population, whenever you have a young urbanising population it creates growth,” he said, adding however that these youth will need jobs and the infrastructure to get their wares to market.

Barton thinks a determined push into agribusiness is what Uganda should be looking at in the short to medium term.

He says in the next ten to fifteen years more than 2 billion people will be joining the middle class, especially in south east asia, generating a huge demand for resources particularly food.

“Uganda is a bread basket. To me the model should be like Kansas, Illinois and Minnesota, which have some of the largest food companies in the world, they create great jobs, they don’t just export, they are packaging it, processing it and adding value to it,” he said.

The three states are situated in in the middle in the US and are big producers of wheat, soy beans and livestock.

And finally he thinks technology will draw more people into the formal economy.

“One of the wonderful things about technology is that people can participate, people will come to them. One of the things that Ali Baba and Ten cent has done in China it has connected small businesses all over China allowing them to be able to participate,” Barton said.

He also points out that it allows for education in new and interesting way and to maximise the use of available resources

Challenges abound of course.

He says infrastructure is a challenge pointing to the hours he spent in traffic to and from Mukono.

"But he is optimistic that the work that is being done in integrating the region’s infrastructure is good, creating a bigger market and easing movement around the region will pay out huge economic dividends....

“The second is education for employment, is what we should be pushing, not education for education’s sake…. Skills imparted in short bursts but targeted at getting kids employed,” Barton said.

And finally something else to watch for that could jettison all the good work of the last decade or so?

“Volatility. Making sure things stay stable. One of the reasons Africa has come back the way it has because it has been relatively more stable over the last 10 years. The challenge is to ensure that stays. We assess countries not only for growth but for stability.”

Barton says that the lack of inclusive growth is a phenomenon all around the world but one everyone has to face up to, he thinks the solution is education.

“But it has got to be practical education … we have to ask what is it that employers are going to need, what are the jobs that are coming and how do we train people for them? We don’t need to spend four years we can train in six weeks. Do these sprints of knowledge.”

McKinsey has some experience with that. In Kenya they have a program called generation where they take poor children, train them up for jobs in four to six weeks and afterwards all of them have got jobs and six out of ten have two job offers. They started with training sales forces for financial, retail and health services.

“A lot of companies that want to hire people but the skills are not available this program should address a lot of that gap,” he said.

“Government policy also helps. Setting priorities. Take sectors and look at how we can build domestic businesses, what FDI do we need, what education do we need … we have seen this in Malaysia and Columbia,”

"He point to tourism as a possible sector but wonders whether we are doing the right things to attract visitors and sustain the sector...

Delivery is the key. Just get it done. How do you get it done? Governments need to move at a much higher metabolic rate. Speed is important. We need a sense of urgency,” Barton urges.

WILL THE MUSANA CART BRING THE ROLEX TO THE WORLD?

Almost two decades ago two young men asked themselves what it would take to create a “Rolex” chain of restaurants.

The ideas would be take the rolex, which at the time was championed by one Sula in Wandegeya, create a menu, standardise the ingredients, upgrade the sanitation issues, license the Sula name and employ him for good measure. 

They would then open branches at all the universities – there were only three at the time and they would have a million dollar business in no time.

It was brilliant idea. But that’s as far as it got.

Actually worse. The idea was forgotten.

That is until last week when Natalie Bitature was named one of three young Uganda women innovators at the World Economic Forum (WEF), that was hosted in Kigali, Rwanda.

Natalie, daughter of businessman Patrick Bitature, came up with the idea of a solar powered street vending cart for her final year undergraduate project. She is studying social entrepreneurship at Hult University in the US.

"The rolex is our original fast food, which needs few ingredients or space to produce and deliver...

Apparently the average vendor sells up to 200 rolex a day and nets about sh25,000. The project discovered that the main driver of the low margins was the energy source. They also worked out that sales would be even further enhanced if the vendor was mobile.

Enter the Musana cart.

Still in its pilot phase, the container on two wheels, would be nothing but a pimped up push-cart were it not for the fact that it has a solar panel for a roof, which would allow vendors to cook, or refrigerate drinks or even charge phones.

Natalie and her project mates have worked out it will cost just under sh2m to buy a cart.

“Of course it could be cheaper but what about quality. It has got to work. It has to be reliable, sturdy and the solar panels must provide enough power given all that it’s a fare price,” said her father Bitature.

The project members have worked their way around it by enlisting the help of a local microfinance bank to lend the vendors the money to buy the carts.

But the project is looking beyond Kampala, where there are an estimated 100,000 vendors of whom they are targeting one percent of for their cart, but beyond the borders of Uganda. They point out in a fact sheet that there are 13 cities around the continent with populations of more than half a million people.

"The project is interesting enough that it is one of six teams in the final round of the Hult Prize, which will be awarded in September. One million dollars will given to the winner of The Hult Prize, which is the world’s largest student competition for social good, aimed at solving the world’s most pressing needs in food security, water access, energy, and education. Over 25,000 projects from around the world including Makerere were showcased in the preliminaries. The five other finalists will receive $200,000 (sh700m) to go towards starting up their venture...

Regardless of what happens in September this project is noteworthy on several fronts but most especially it is about our own entrepreneurs and innovators thinking up solutions to our own challenges.

No in is going to do it for us. This applies to challenges in medicine, agriculture and the environment. 

As a country, as a continent we need to invest more in research and development. And then we need to develop the capacity in the public and private sector to take such promising projects to their full potential.

Uganda is the most entrepreneurial countries in the world studies have shown but we also have one of the highest death rates of business, with less than one in ten businesses making it past their fifth birthday. But an even more outrageous statistic is that even fewer companies, maybe even less than one in a hundred, live and thrive beyond the original founders.

A deficit in our business ecosystem, beyond inadequate funding is to blame. In more advanced economies businesses have the support of mentors, business associations and differing financing options tailored to the stages in the business growth giving them a better chance of survival.

"The younger Bitature has clearly tapped into this more developed environment in San Francisco, fast becoming the social entrepreneurial capital of the world, and chances are Uganda will be the winner from the experience...

And the rolex too. But not with Sula as its main mascot.

UGANDA ENTERS A NEW STAGE OF POLITICS

In coming days President Yoweri Museveni is going to announce a new cabinet.

Whether the newness of the cabinet will go beyond it coming after an election cycle, have new faces and a whole new look is left to be seen.

What is clear however is that this will be Museveni’s most important cabinet announcement since 1986.

"Thirty years ago the NRM’s 48 member cabinet, while dominated by its own supporters had a liberal smattering of opposition party members and academics, a broadbased government that signalled Museveni’s intention to foster a “fundamental change”...

In hindsight it also served to co-opt many established politicians into the NRM – giving the budding political organisation some traction in places it so badly needed to establish itself, mostly in central and eastern Uganda.

It helped of course that by that time, that Uganda had not only looked into the abyss, but had actually fallen in and any leadership that would promise improvement would be welcome.

At the time a certain minimum consensus had to be developed – Uganda first and everything else after. So it is safe to say it was easier to coalesce politics’ leading lights of the time around this agenda.

Of course, the degree of commitment varied and subsequent reshuffles showed this.

Over the last three decades the cabinet has tried to remain true to the orginal broadbased nature, if not by coopting the different political parties but at least by having a broad national representation. Museveni argued in the early days when rebellion was a real danger that it was cheaper to have potential rebels in government than outside.

One also suspects a Machiavellian motive too, while he kept his friends close he wanted to keep his enemies even closer.

For the most part that logic has worked, the county is enjoying its longest stretch of peace since independence. It has been more than a decade since the LRA’s Joseph Kony was harried out of the country.

"The challenge now, as the President highlighted in his swearing in speech, is to ensure the benefits of economic growth are felt more broadly by improving service delivery. Given this commitment it will be interesting to see whether regional balancing still has a part to play in the new cabinet....

Related to that is the sailing into the sunset of many of the historicals – either through loss of their parliamentary seats or in expressing their wish to no longer be in government.

Two things have happened in the last few years, a new breed of Movement cadres who joined the struggle after the two zeros were knocked off the currency in 1987 have come of age and have been knocking on the door with growing insistence and shamelessness.

A population in which easily seven in every ten Ugandans was born after 1986, it makes sense to have that reflected in a younger cabinet than before, if only because if the NRM is going to continue in  power beyond Museveni, they have to keep in touch with this demographic which, while already deciding political outcomes will be more decisive in coming elections.

And finally the elephant in the room, Museveni’s succession. According to the constitution this is supposed to be Museveni’s last term, seeing as he will cross the 75 year old age limt during this term.

One can expect that Museveni’s plans for the future will be hinted at in this cabinet, regardless of whether this becomes his last term in office or not.

A pattern has formed over the years, with the constitution listing the vice president as the successor, but everybody else smiling knowingly, suggesting Museveni’s deputy lies elsewhere.

It would be interesting to see if Museveni bucks the tradition.

The opposition are determined to have a say, never mind that they lost the last presidential election and the numbers in parliament leave no room for manoeuvre.

"So they have decided to heed the words of Abraham Lincoln’s biographer Cal Sandburg, “If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell”....

They may not want to admit it, but however loud they are may not matter in forcing Museveni’s hand.

WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO CREATE MORE JOBS?

Our economy has been growing for the last three decades, but the constant criticism is that the growth does not seem to be shared equitably.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise as the growth has been mostly concentrated in services and industry, while agriculture, where about eight in ten Ugandans derive a livelihood is not one of the sectors that has mirrored the national economy’s growth.

"The net effect of his is that the benefits of the growing economy are being concentrated in a few hands to the detriment of the majority....

The question then becomes, how does government facilitate the process of ensuring more and more people become real beneficiaries of this continued growth?

It goes without saying that the growth has to continue.

That means keeping public expenditure under control and continuing with policies that facilitate  private sector led growth.

By keeping disciplined in our public finances we have kept inflation at bay – in recent memory one moment of madness in 2011 led to inflation hitting a 19 year high of 30 percent. Inflation distorts the business environment and discourages investment.

Government has struggled with creating an enabling business environment for investors. Of course the stable macro-economic environment, improved security and steady investment in infrastructure have been useful if not critical in spurring the recent growth.

The trick has been more on a micro level and in building institutions that work impartially and objectively in regulating the business environment and arbitrating disputes.

The World Bank’s last Ease of Doing Business report shows that Uganda jumped 13 places to 122 out of 169 countries polled.

The report measures the rules and regulations that affect the business environment. Despite our stellar growth record we are literally at the bottom of world rankings in terms of our business environment.

How do we turn this around?

We need to think like businessmen for starters.

What do businessmen look for when thinking about investing in the country? Market access and the probability of making a return on the investment.

Put another way what would stand in the way of recouping the sh100m I invested in Uganda? Or how long would it take me to recover my money? Obviously the faster I can get my money back the better.

A big plus is a big market where people have disposable income to buy my wares.

Low bureaucratic hurdles from visa acquisition, to getting the relevant licenses and permissions, to about quantity and quality are critical in getting the project off the ground.

"So as a government the number one issue is to lower or remove all together the bureaucratic hurdles that prevent businessmen from setting up or operating smoothly...

This is within government’s control, or is it?

So even if we get rid of these the businessman will still need to be incentivised to set up shop here. Just because you have high returns on investment doesn’t mean the businessman will opt for you over a safer destination like South Africa or Dubai, where they are at least assured of protection of capital.

A package of industry wide incentives would come into handy. Individual deals done with businessmen only serve to distort the sector and often don’t live up to earlier promise.

But what would revolutionise the attracting of investors to our shores would be the existence of a local business class with the capacity to partner with themselves or foreign businessmen to create the industrial complex that will spur job creation.

It is easier to attract ready made investors than build this indigenous business class, and that is probably why we really haven’t exercised our mind to create it.

"Businessmen prefer the company of other businessmen who have navigated the environment rather than government bureaucrats and their statistics but who have no real appreciation of what it takes do business in their own country...

Throwing money at local businessmen will not achieve this goal. In fact it is the surest way to failure. 

As an example businessmen who have benefited from government largesse over the last few decades, do not yet have a national presence despite the huge hand outs.

There is a place for hand outs and even bailouts, but that is not the key interventions that need to be made to jump-start a local business class.

Education and mentoring would be the place to start, so that when you start dishing out the cash and the tax breaks at least you have a safe pair of hands on the receiving end.

"For the reason that we don’t have a robust entrepreneurial class and sticky fingered officials, I hesitate to suggest that government should go into partnership with other businessmen...

They say what you focus on expands. Every first Friday of the month the US government releases the Non-Farm Payroll, a measure of the number of jobs that have been created in the economy in the last month.

We urgently need a similar number in order to focus our energies on the task.