ONLY FOOLS DON’T CHANGE THEIR MIND

Last week was a big news week in Uganda, what with the surreptitious return of General David Sejusa and the breath taking machinations within the ruling NRM party. These our enough to keep were blood pressure ticking up the scale.

Drama aside both events will be major landmarks in the political evolution of our country.

Sejusa’s return was a bit of an anti-climax.  After the General fled the country last year claiming there were plans to assassinate some of the army leadership for their opposition to a plot to manoever first son Muhoozi Kainerugaba to succeed his father.

Just prior to his escape there had been a fire fight outside Mbuya baracks, which it was later suggested, was an attempted coup and somehow linked to the fleeing General.

Of course, once in the UK, Sejusa became the flavour of the month, hosted on radio and television, fraternising with the usual suspects, making serious allegations about Kampala and threatening to use whatever means necessary to oust President Yoweri Museveni’s government.

Once the media moved on, Sejusa’s cause fizzled out and it came as little surprise to observers, when he slunk back into the country in the dead of the night.

Jostling for headline space was the unfolding saga of the reorganisation of the NRM, for all intents and purposes a done deal by the time the members turned for the delegates conference on Sunday. Meetings of the Central Executive Committee and the National Executive Committee the previous two days had endorsed proposals to the make the secretary general an appointee of the chairman as well as other key officials.

"The story, which had been simmering from the time Amama Mbabazi was made Prime Minister, came to a boil with the Kyankwanzi resolution of the NRM Parliamentary caucus to have Museveni as flag bearer in 2016, finally bubbled over with his being dropped from the cabinet and may have run its course with Mbabazi’s eventual dropping as secretary general of the ruling party...

Stranger things have happened, but the events of the last week may have sealed or will prove a major speed bump in the two men’s political ambitions.

Their travails as well as those of another major challenger for the top office of the land, Kiiza Besigye provide useful material in trying to tell what it would take to ascend to the presidency.

Two things stand in way of any challenger.

One, Museveni himself, naturally. Love or hate him he is the only politician with a record to run on, everybody else would have to refer to his record for lack of their own. Of course he has been at the helm for coming to 30 years and so none of the current crop of politicians has his credentials, but it can be argued that he has not held on to power for lack of trying by others to oust him.

One may question the elections he has won – 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, but it is a hard argument to sustain since unlike his counterpart in Paul Biya, in Cameroon who is mostly out of the country only coming in to swear in as president, Museveni hits the campaign trail, pressing the flesh and kissing babies.

He has nationwide face recognition. Sometimes that’s all it takes when it comes to ticking your candidate of choice.

In the last three decades perfection or even excellence, has been far from a hall mark of this government’s programs and policies. No one is rushing to beatify the NRM and its leaders. But they have achieved enough to the point that 28 years down the line, it has not reached the point where the majority of the people would vote for a jerrycan rather than Museveni, as was the case with former Kenyan president Daniel arap Moi at the end of his 24 year rule.

Secondly but more importantly, there is nothing comparable to the NRM in nationwide presence or organisational structure.

If the truth be told, the NRM often enough look like a house divided against itself and even manages to look very shambolic and clumsy most times, but when it swings into action every five years it assumes the stature of an irresistible force.

You may argue about how the party sustains itself but you can have all the money in the world, but with a solid organisation that money may count for little.

"There is a symbiotic relationship between Museveni and the NRM, but he would have an uphill task running roughshod over the opposition if he were to be divorced from the party...

And clearly that is what Mbabazi understood very well.

The NRM forged in the heat of the Luwero triangle and melded into multi-million person organisation since 1986, has made itself indispensable for anyone who has serious political aspirations in this country.

Which is a good thing, to an extent.

In the 1980s Milton Obote taunted opposition leader Paul Ssemogerere with the words “Where are your generals?” The generals are still important – even critical, but in addition you need a political structure and the numbers to back it up to lay claim to the ultimate prize.

That is where Sejusa went wrong in attempting to launch an opposition movement abroad. Not since Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran returned from exile to take over the leadership of Iran, has there been anyone who launches a credible challenge to power from abroad.

And his second capitulation doesn’t help the good General.

But as former UN secretary general Bhutros Bhutros Ghali said, “Only fools and God don’t change their minds!”

CUBA COMES IN FROM THE COLD

On Wednesday US President Barack Obama announced the restoration of relations with Cuba in a move that unwinds the world’s most intractable diplomatic row and brings down the curtain on the last vestiges of the cold war era.

Relations were severed after the ascendance to power Fidel Castro in 1959. That he nationalised a lot of American interests and hobnobbed with the USSR did not endear the island nation to the US.

After attempts to force Castro out failed dismally, legislation to institutionalise economic sanctions was passed with the hope of making the country ungovernable and for the population to push out Castro.

Ten US administrations later, Washington has come around to the fact that the sanctions did not achieve their intended aim except worsen living conditions for the everyday man. Raul Castro took over from his brother in 2008, after Fidel’s health took a turn for the worse.

Understandably Cuba has not come away unscathed.

Havana estimates that the economic sanctions have cost the country more than a trillion dollars in lost economic activity and with the demise of the Soviet Union the economy has limped on, but only just.

"Despite being frozen out by the largest economy in the world, Cuba has done very well for itself when seen against the record in other regional US allies like Haiti, Grenada and Jamaica, when judged against the quality of life of its citizens using the UN’s Human Development Index.

It’s doctor to patient ratio rivals that of many western European nations, has a health budget that amounts to about $251 per person and has a first world life expectancy rate of 78 years...

To lift the economic sanctions hanging over the island will have to come with legislative approvals, a move the Republican Party, which controls both Congress and Senate has vowed to oppose.

A loosening of economic restrictions will do wonders for the Cuban economy. For instance US citizens will now be able to send $6,000 more a year to Cuba and if visiting the Caribbean island can return with goods worth up to $400.

This may sound like mere tokenism but as it is now, about $5b in cash and goods, is sent to Cuba from America, which is more money than is made by their best performing economic sectors: sugar, tourism and pharmaceuticals.

A boost in hard currency inflows would help them pay for oil on the world market. They have been benefitting from cheap crude supplies from Venezuela, a luxury the South American ally can least afford with falling oil prices.

US interventions in Latin America during the cold war left terror and poverty in their wake, Cuba survived most of that.

Cubans can expect that with their country opening up to the US, things will not be the same again. With improved economic prospects and improvements in people’s welfare, one can expect greater agitation for freedoms. It is unlikely that the island will revert to the den of inequity it was, as a haven for organised crime, gambling and racketeering that it was before Castro came along but integrating into global economy may call for dramatic changes in the structure of the economy and politics that Havana may find hard to swallow.

For the rest of us Cuba stands as an example of what poor countries can achieve by relying on their own resources and despite insurmountable odds.

MY THREE-WEEK LITERARY ODYSSEY

I returned to office today after three weeks of revitalizing, and dare I say, much needed leave.

During the leave I tried to catch up on my reading. 

Without moving out of our dusty city, I was able to reminiscence with traders who were at the heart of the global financial crisis, drill into the brain of the man credited with launching the international spot market in oil, confer with the most powerful central bankers of our time before taking a sharp detour to trace the rise of China into the largest economy in the world -- if some observers are to believed. 

Heady stuff. Breath taking characters. Head shaking revelations.

I left a lot unread. 

There is an account of how one country went from world power to gangster state, how the world's favorite toy making company pulled back from the abyss of collapse and reinvented itself and how currencies are increasingly becoming the battle ground on which history is being moulded.

Boss, I need another three weeks.

This reading put context to current events we are experiencing, putting it into context and layering it with deeper meaning than a cursory glance would provide.

"Why is oil collapsing through the floor like it is now? Is it purely driven by supply and demand or are there larger issues at play? In a world where the east-west divide is history what are the new configurations that are going to drive history? In an increasingly liberalized economy, who are doomed to being at the bottom of the pyramid and how are he leaders of the previous world order jostling to maintain their preeminence in world affairs?...

Clearly the inter play between politics and economics can not be ignored. As one drives the other interchangeably.

These are the threads I was able to weave between my latest literary odyssey.

Chairman Mao Tse Tsung the father of modern day China was driven by a vision of world domination that would return the most populous nation in the world to its leadership position in world affairs. According to "Mao: The untold story" by the husband-wife pair of Jung Chang and Jon Halliday, he sought his goal by building a military industrial complex that was paid for with the lives of tens of millions of his countrymen. While history may not be kind to him it his force of personality that is the foundation of the country's current ascendancy to a world economic power, never mind that China's economy's was in tatters by the time of his death in 1976.

"China's rapid growth, launched by Mao's successor Deng Xiaoping - whose life I will shortly delve into, through the pages of his self titled biography by Ezra F. Vogel, would have been near impossible if the oil industry had remained controlled by a cabal of oil companies, "The seven sisters"... 

Believe it or not there was a time when little to no oil was traded outside the seven sisters, which comprised Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP); Gulf Oil, Standard Oil of California (SoCal), Texaco (now Chevron); Royal Dutch Shell; Standard Oil of New Jersey (Esso) and Standard Oil Company of New York (Socony) (now ExxonMobil).

Were it not for the plucky Jewish-American commodities trader Marc Rich this status quo may have persisted. "The King of Oil: The Secrets of Marc Rich" reveals the role played by this one, Jewish immigrant in creating a spot market for oil outside the seven sisters, which made it possible for market forces to come into play in the trading of this precious commodity, loosening the grip of governments over its control. There were positives, the aforementioned break up of the oil cartel was one, and negatives to this, like the continued supply of oil to apartheid South Africa through his ingenuity may have sustained the regime for longer than it should have survived. Arguably on the whole the positives outweigh the negatives in as much as he helped set the stage for the subsequent growth in the world economy from the 1980s.

Rich's testing the limits of the established order in the oil trade spilled over into other markets. While Rich, the scion of a long tradition of Jewish traders, remains urbane and cultured, a new generation of traders with no connections to the establishment, living off their wits and indulging in excesses of debauchery unspeakable in polite company, took off where he left off and almost collapsed the world economy as we know it barely a decade ago, are caricatured in "The Buyside".

The autobiographical account of Wall Street trader Turney Duff reminds us that at the end of the day, for better for worse, it's men who create history not systems and cultures. He narrates a life of high living, fast cars and even faster women in a world where the fates of thousands and even millions are in the hands of immature traders whose morality is vague at best and sense of responsibility to themselves or any one else is none existent.

Duff's account sets the stage for the massive reset of the world economy that begun with the collapse of the sub-prime lending debacle and whose reverberations continue to buffet us about today

OIL PRICE DROP, A SIGN OF WORLD CHANGE

Last week the price of oil fell to its lowest in five years. By the time of writing US oil had fallen to $62.21 a barrel. In June it peaked at $107.64. Each barrel contains 159 liters.

This dramatic collapse has come despite disruption to production in Libya and Iraq, sanctions on Russia and disturbances in Syria affecting supply routes.

Traditionally oil prices rally heading into the northern hemisphere's winter season but for the first time since 2008, the year the global financial crisis exploded, this year is the first time that oil prices have fallen in the lead up to Christmas.

According to the economist four factors explain the downward dip in oil prices. 

One, economic activity in the the developed north is still low, as they try to shake off the hangover from the global financial crisis of the last decade so demand for oil similarly low. 

 

Secondly, despite trouble in Iraq and Libya which account for a combined four million barrels a day, they have held production steady. 

 

In the last year the US has become the world's biggest producer of oil with its advances in extracting l from l bearing rocks. While it doesn't export any it has reduced its import volumes creating more supply on world markets. 

 

And finally last week the Organisation of oil producing and exporting countries (OPEC) voted not to curb production, which would have pushed prices up.

"The biggest winners will be countries with huge oil import bills. It has been reported that China is taking advantage of the situation to beef up its reserves.

The biggest losers are. The oil exporting countries that rely heavily on oil to support their budgets...

In this respect is Russia and Iran, which are already staggering under international sanctions, Iran for instance needs oil to be at at least $130 a barrel to balance its budget.

For Uganda its a double edged sword. Our oil imports account for about $2b (shs5.4trillion) annually and this would do wonders for us if our oil bill fell by 40% in line with world oil prices.

On the other hand this new development may force a rethink by investors looking to invest in our oil industry. Already the cost of extracting our oil which is waxy and needs a lot of heating to keep it fluid during transportation, makes it expensive to produce. And that is without factoring in the more than 1500 km from our oil fields in western Uganda to the coast.

Big commitments in exploration and other preparatory work means plugging the wells and leaving is not an immediate option but a wait-and-see approach may slow down investment in the industry.

Thankfully the revenues from oil have not been factored into our budgets yet, but a huge infrastructural developments we are planning like power dams and overinflated standard gauge railway line were pegged to an eventual production of oil within the next five years.

Industry players are not being forthcoming with possible changes to their projections or how badly oil price fall affects our prospects but it would only be common sense to put the brakes on our grand designs for the moment.

On the global scene with the US more confident about its oil supplies what will that mean for their determined presence in the Middle East? The Middle East assumed new importance with the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979. Within weeks of his overthrow oil prices jumped to $17 a barrel (the good old days) an almost doubling from about $10 at the start of the Arab oil crisis in 1974.

With the loss of a major ally in the Shah the US has not been averse to intervening in the Middle East to ensure the continued supply of oil.

Beyond just unhampered supply is the fact that the US dollar is backed by oil. All oil contracts are denominated in dollars, so if oil reserves fall in the wrong hands the US economy would be in mortal danger.

The conspiracy theorists suggest that this fall in oil prices is a deliberate effort, beyond the fundamentals outlined above, to bring Russia to its heels. Last week's refusal by a Saudi Arabia to cut exports was their final confirmation.

A shift in world geopolitics is happening before our eyes which could see tensions flare up in the Middle East as long held grudges, suppressed by US backing of unpopular regimes, bubble to the surface as America's interest in the region wanes.

For Uganda its not inconceivable that we might have to wait a little longer for our own oil production to start.

HOW AFRICA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THE WEST

Fact: Illegal transfer of wealth out of Africa exceeds aid and foreign direct investment flowing I to the continent annually.

Fact: Funds from bribery and embezzlement account for less than five percent of these illicit fund transfers with upto six in every ten dollars of these come from the activities of multinational companies, otherwise legitimate companies with above board operations but through accounting dodges are often able to transfer more of their income abroad than they ordinarily should.

According to a report by the Organisation for Economically Developed Countries (OECD) illicit fund transfers amounting to at least $65b are secreted out of the continent annually compared to the $63b received in aid and Foreign direct investment (FDI).

And even the OECD fears that it is understating the reality spectacularly.

"These are such scary facts that at the recent group of 20 most developed nations meeting in Australia last month it was on the agenda though no substantive resolutions were made to stem these immoral flows.

Immoral because, especially with multinationals they often constitute tax avoidance than tax evasion. The latter is criminal and the former is considered shrewd business.

Last week at the Africa Center of Media Excellence (ACME) journalists from he East African region were given a primer on how to recognize and report on these financial flows.

However there is only so much the media can do, their limited ability to decipher financial statements notwithstanding. Often these companies by setting up parent companies in offshore jurisdictions -- even these are hidden within convoluted webs that are impossible to make head or tail of, that offer favorable tax benefits, shift their costs to these places denying the country where the economic benefit is being generated from getting a fair shake.

The champions of these practices argue that these countries still benefit from job creation and technology transfers. That maybe so but the evidence suggests that there is a disproportionate benefit to the companies than our countries.

"These findings burst the myth that western companies are doing us a favour investing in our capital starved countries while in fact we are supporting their economies with massive repatriation of funds that prop up an unsustainable way of life while keeping our continent in poverty. Not unlike the massive repatriation of  capital during the slave trade and subsequently during the colonial era...

But the governments of the multinationals' home countries are only waking up to the fact if these companies can do it to us they have no qualms about doing it at home either.

Last week the UK government moved to plug loopholes that allowed US giants Google, Amazon and Starbucks to pay minimal taxes on their profits with the appropriately named Google tax.

The developed countries while horrified by how their treasuries are not getting their fair dues are also coming to the realization that these same networks are being employed by organized criminals and terrorists to launder and transfer funds.

But even more dangerous is that these dodges are facilitating the subversion of their own democracies. Not only do these ruses serve to concentrate prodigious amounts of wealth in very few hands, but his wealth, connected individuals then leverage their resources to have whole governments doing their bidding regardless of the impact on the general population.

"They are not waking up to the centuries' old scam because of their concern for us, the wretched of the earth...

A rough estimate that as much as $21 trillion dollars or twice the size of the US economy is being shuffled between 60 countries around the world with as far flung addressees as Macau to the Isle of Man and the Bahamas.

Given the scale of the industry there is very little individual countries can do. Even the UK's latest attempt is seen by observers as mere playing to the gallery, as no serious inroads can be made unilaterally.

It's obvious why we should care, this money could be used to improve the quality of our lives and divorce us from our dependence on foreign aid.

However it is a war that pits the severely, disjointed opposition against networks of power and influence that have been in place since even before the Middle Ages.

COFFEE BRINGS PROMISE TO THOUSANDS

Vincent Sekankya's former self would not have recognized himself today.

Barely ten years ago, Living in a mud-and-wattle, two roomed house and eking a living any which way he could to provide for his growing family, Sekankya's could not see any hope in the future.

Today he is the proud owner of five acres of coffee or 2250 trees, outside Miseebe trading center, in Mityana, from which he harvests just under 16 tons of coffee a season of exportable quality robusta coffee.

Sekankya's arrives for our interview dressed in a coat and kanzu, riding a motorcycle.

An excitable man in his late 30s he takes us around a part of his farm where the Barry's are heavy on the branches, but still green but will be ready for picking in a few days he says.

The turn around in his fortunes was sparked by a decade long project by the Hans R. Neumann Foundation to help local farmers improve coffee farming. The project kicked off in the Mityana-Mubende area but has now stretched out to Luwero,Nakaseke, Nakasongola, Masaka, Bukomansimbi, Kalungu and Kasese areas.

Under the project the farmers have benefitted from access to better planting materials, have learnt the use of ferterlisers and pesticides and have improved their bargaining power on the market.

"Next I want to park a car in the garage," Sekankya said of the room adjoining his house, which was halfway to the roof with sacks of coffee.

It begun about 15 years ago when the Neumann Coffee Group decided to locate a coffee plantation in Uganda. They leased land, about 2,000 hectares in Kaweri in neighbouring Mubende district, where they proceeded to develop the biggest coffee plantation in Africa.

This season Kaweri farm is set to export 2,500 tons of coffee or two in every hundred bags of coffee produced in Uganda.

But the Neumann family, as a way to give back to an industry on which they have built their fortune, help coffee farmers wherever they can but especially around similar giant plantations in Mexico and Brazil.

"There are millions of small holder farmers around the world are they are living in difficult situations, barely making a living for themselves. A project like this can have a transformative effect," said Stefan Cognigni, the general manager of the Neumann Foundation in Uganda.

But Cognigni was quick to point out that the farmers helped through the project are under no compulsion to sell to Ibero, the Neumann Coffee Group's agents in Uganda.

"The goal is to start up independent organizations that are sustainable," he said.

The 20 households are organized into production organizations (POs), these mobilise farmers, provide extension services and collect coffee. Twenty POs in turn form a depot committee. The depot committees are companies limited by guarantee which help in bulking the produce, provide quality assurance, value addition and marketing. The depot committees are then represented at the Uganda Coffee Farmers Alliance (UCFA), the apex body charged with capacity building, helping with market access, serves as a link to service providers like banks and input suppliers.

"The main challenges facing our farmers -- coffee or otherwise are poor farming methods, no understanding of the value chain, no market information or skills to run their farms as business," said Tony Mugoya, the UCFA executive manager....

As a result he said, the farmers have low productivity and are at the mercy of middlemen and other players, ensuring that they do not get fair value for their sweat.

A cursory assessment of the progress of this model has thrown up some encouraging results.

"A new member benefiting from only the better prices but not yet seen any improvement in yields yet will earn 31 percent more than before. More established members will not only benefit from improved prices but also from improved yields and can see their income jumping between four and scene fold," Mugoya said.

A visit to the heartland of the project provided anecdotal evidence in support of the raw data.

Miserere growers company ltd, the depot committee in Bukera sub county in the last decade has seen their output rise 120 tons from 800 kgs in 2005.

"While membership has increased we have seen more coffee per acre being harvested," said chairman David Katende, while seating in his office, a small four wall room in Miseebe trading center, that also serves as a store for their weighing scales and hulling equipment.

But the quality of the beans to have seen dramatic improvement, with up to 60 percent of coffee sent out by the group is screen 18, the best exportable quality.

"Small things like drying using tarpaulins instead of on the bare ground, proper spacing, pruning of old branches and learning from each other has made the main difference. Of course that we can get better prices from the market is important," Katende said.

In field study schools, where members of a PO make field visits to individual farms and share experiences challenges such as pests, proper fertilizer application and water conservation methods were discussed among themselves and with an extension worker, with lessons taken back to be applied in their respective farms.

"This is more effective than people coming from Kampala or the district headquarters to tell us. With this system we deal with the needs of the day not according to predetermined schedule," Katende explained on the sidelines of one visit to Kibuuto PO.

Ravaged by the coffee wilt disease a few years ago, the Mityana-Mubende region is fighting back using new clonal varieties that have proved resistant to the withering disease.

"We have strategic goal which will see us in the medium term branding and exporting our own coffee, we already working with other partners to do this and to add value to own coffee instead of shipping beans," Mugoya said.

But as the program has progressed while there has been improvements in household incomes there may no have been a corresponding improvements in living standards.

"We have introduced a gender and youth component which through sensitization we are helping households make business plans for themselves which means incomes are better employed not drunk by the head of the family," the Neumann Foundation boss Cognigni said.

"For the youth there is a program to show them the benefits of agriculture and not necessarily coffee, but faster maturing crops,"

THE CONTINUED RESILIENCE OF THE HUMAN RACE

While the deadly Ebola virus outbreak continued to cast its malevolent shadow over international headlines we commemorated World AIDS day last week.

Lest we forget about 30 years ago when AIDS first hit the headlines the doomsayers were gleefully predicting the end of the world. The disease, characterized by a wasting to nothingness of the human body, struck horror in communities and cut through whole populations for lack of information on how to prevent or treat it.

HIV, the virus that causes a breakdown in the human immune system and therefore makes one susceptible to disease, was particularly scary because it was transmitted mainly through sexual contact.

This was scary because it fed off our natural instinct to perpetuate the human specie. In fact I remember some sections warning that this disease would lead to the extinction of the human race in a few generations.

It is no coincidence then, that there has been a boom in various religious movements especially on our continent as people grappling with poverty while being stalked by AIDS have fallen back on the Church to strengthen their moral fortitude.

Others pointing to our poor health services predicted that Africa's economies were going to be dealt a death blow as large swathes of our populations would drop like flies.

That seems like a long time ago now. While there have been serious advances in our understanding and our ability to combat HIV, the virus has not sat around waiting to be picked off.

At least in Uganda, from being a disease that predominantly preys on the youthful and most productive segments of society, efforts to roll it back have been hurt by recent trends that show that it is showing up among older people, while continuing to affect the youth.

However serious advances in our understanding of the deadly disease and our ability to treat it continue to be made. Scientists are continuously finding more effective means to reduce the immunity suppression that the virus triggers, with a single doze treatment that will boost immunity for months imminent and work on a vaccine in advanced stages.

But incredibly too, Africa, while coming to terms with the epidemic has enjoyed its greatest burst of economic activity and seems poised to be the next frontier of world development.

The continent's economy has more than doubled during the duration of the AIDS epidemic. Although this has happened in bursts and not been evenly spread among the population, it has dispelled some of the gloom and doom surrounding Africa's prospects

Ebola of course is a more lethal disease, in the speed in which it has spread and also because it is more contagious, making it more likely that sufferers may be isolated from badly needed treatment.

It was announced that the death toll from the year-old out break hit the 7000 mark and that the original sites of the disease continue to see increasing number of infections, suggesting that the haemoragic fever has not yet run its course.

"The history of epidemics shows that they have come with concentration of human populations. But unlike the outbreaks that accompanied the renaissance and industrial revolutions, this time around improved communication will ensure that these outbreaks while just as deadly to those who come into immediate contact, their devastation will be short lived. Little consolation for the affected, but makes it possible to predict that for the human race even this will come to pass....

But also what we can expect is that in coming years there will be a proliferation of these epidemics on the continent. Thankfully, as with all evolutionary processes those that survive learn, adapt and are readier for subsequent attacks.

Uganda, which was the epicenter of the AIDS epidemic used the experience to fight off three Ebola attacks and is now a significant contributor in the fight against the current outbreak.

Our warm climate, uninterrupted by cold winters, means disease carrying organisms can survive and thrive in our midst. On the one hand they can get stronger as they spread among populations but also through continued contact our natural human processes can develop some immunity.

It is no surprise that researchers are finding that with time some strains of the AIDS virus are less potent than others. The body is fighting back. While not at the speed we might want, the body, which has withstood constant attacks through out the history of the human race, is in full survival mode.

The point is, that while we shouldn't let down our guard against Ebola, seeing as it has fallen off the international headlines, it shall be overcome. Just in time for the next outbreak.