IT STARTS WITH THE ECONOMY

Last week riots broke out in several towns around the country in reaction to the arrest of presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine.

The security forces’ response was quick and decisive. At the time of writing this the death toll was placed at, at least 30 people. This action came up against a lot of criticism and hair pulling.

Why do the police use live ammunition against civilians? I have my thoughts on that but that is not the subject of today.

What interests me is, who are these people – almost always young and male, who are ready to risk life and limb against armed security agents?

In 2009, a decade ago, Wakiso district chairman Ian Kyeyune came against these same kind of people.

Disgruntled at the state of the Busabala road, by then a murram track that was responsible for the red hue of the houses, cars and clothes on the washing line in the area, they summoned the good man to come explain.

His smooth tongue counted for nothing, as an angry mob forced him to seat in the middle of the road and proceeded to cover him in murram from the same road.

I commented at the time that a revolution was afoot.

"Revolutions are not sparked by lack, but more by failed expectations.

People can remain in poverty for a long time as long as they see they have enough company in their misery. Things go south when people can’t work out why they are wallowing in poverty while others are wheezing around in fuel guzzlers, living five figure tabs at the bar (even if there is a curfew) and holidaying like Corona is a myth.

We are talking about income and wealth disparities.

The widening of these is what triggers the violence, wherever you look in the world.

"Economic disparities within a country are an indictment on the ruling class, especially in a situation where the economy is growing....

It means the politicians have failed to convert the growing economy into equitable distribution of the ensuing wealth that was created.

Distributing the growth is simple, but not easy. That is assuming you have mustered how to grow the economy, which our planners seem to be able to do even in their sleep, going by the record of the last three decades.

This is what we know about growing the economy. 

You shift production of goods and services into private hands. And work to create an enabling environment for businessmen to thrive – provide security, lower inflation, stabilise the currency and build infrastructure to facilitate business.

What we have struggled with, is  distributing this economic growth. As it is now it is concentrated among the urban elite, who went to school to a high level and have ingratiated themselves with the ruling class – directly or indirectly.

We have done it before. The ruling class climbed from rural poor backgrounds or are one generation removed from rural poverty.

They managed to ascend to their exalted positions by sticking it out, braving the ten kilometer-plus walk to school – unlike their contemporaries and not succumbing to debilitating disease – mostly by the grace of God. These two alone set them up to take advantage of post independence opportunities that their rural cousins couldn’t.

Understandably, the first post-independence government was dealing with much fewer people or educating fewer students – there were 300 students in A-level at independence.

"We have committed ourselves to mass education and health service provision. What that means is that our little resources are being spread very thin – doing a little of every thing and not much of anything....

In this context two things have to happen, simultaneously, we have to increase our revenues and plug the leaks – stop corruption.

In the last decade or so the government has gone on a massive infrastructure building spree and this is beginning to pay off. But given the existing infrastructural deficiencies it is too soon for government to rest on its laurels. In road construction, power infrastructure and rail transport, we have to invest at least twice as much as we have over the last three decades to stimulate private enterprise to a point where revenues to finance social services can begin to make sense.

There has to be a major commitnent to fight corruption. Not only by government – stop giving pride of place to thieves in church, at weddings and at your babies’ baptism.

Because with corruption continuing to run rampant the infrastructure projects wouldn’t be done, but more importantly in the context of recent events, will concentrate wealth in fewer hands to the detriment of the millions.

Which brings us back to our rioters. Assuming he has a subpar education and work hard as he might on odd jobs and hawking, is barely putting a shirt on his back or roofing, leave alone feeding himself and cannot see any hope at the end of the tunnel and yet he lives in the same town as the more affluent. It will not take long before he makes a connection, however tenuous, between his afflictions and the “unexplained” wealth of the middle class...

And so when some unrest – choreographed or otherwise, erupts it will find in our disaffected youth, a useful fuse for the time bomb.

When Lee Kuan Yew and his contemporaries took power in Singapore after independence, they made the analysis that ruling parties tend to lose in the capitals. For them to hang on to power they needed to deliver services effectively and efficiently as a way to ingratiate themselves with the population. And ensure their stay in power.

They embraced the private sector and used the taxes to improve security, infrastructure and social services.

"They also embarked on a plan to enable widespread home ownership.

One of the spinoffs of this latter initiative is that protests against the government became more benign...

You are not going to go around wrecking property when you know you have a house of your own.