GOVERNMENT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

In last week’s state of the nation address President Yoweri Museveni announced a battery of things the government was planning to jump start the economy after more than two months of lock down.

The restriction of movement and congregation, meant to slow the rate of infection of covid-19 the diseases caused by the Cororna virus, has ground the economy to a halt not only Uganda but all over the world.

The corona crisis is a health crisis that has escalated fast into an economic crisis.

The expectation has been that there will be a wave of business collapses and the subsequent job losses that could potentially spill over into social unrest and political upheaval.

To stave off this last scenario, governments around the world have opened the taps of government spending, economic stimulus, to help support their respective economies.

Unlike another crisis since the second world war, the economic dislocation has been swift, massive and global in its reach. But it has been unique in the total collapse in demand, in a situation of over capacity.

To illustrate, while many people –

up to 80% in certain segments have lost their incomes, the capacity to produce, to feed or service all those people is still there. It has just been switched off..

.

The companies that have been shut down are facing the real possibility of closure, depending on the robustness of their balance sheets, but the most vulnerable members of our society are falling deeper into poverty and facing real existential questions.

The two are related. To the extent that people are unable to get back to spending money because of the uncertainties of the economy or because they have no money all together, is how long it will take for businesses to get back to full production and employment.

So the effectiveness of a government stimulus will depend on how well this reality is appreciated.

It is particularly important in Uganda where more than seven in ten dollars of economic output is attributed to the informal economy.

More formal economies in western Europe recognise this and their stimulus packages while shoring up big business, have emphasised support from Small and Medium size enterprises (SMEs) and individuals out of a job.

It is a lesson many learnt after the second world war. As they embarked on reconstruction they realised too that while industry was getting back on its feet they had to provide unemployment benefits. These monies provided the demand that helped spur industrial growth.

Many of them have maintained and even widened the nature of welfare benefits. While its critics have seen this as wasteful and prone to political manipulation, their criticism might be because they would rather those monies be used to support big business than disperse it among the masses.

The supporters of these “handouts” also argue that

if you give your everyday man sh50,000 he will buy from the local shops, seek treatment at the clinic and pay the boda boda....

These in turn will pay local suppliers and the local economies badly hit by this crisis will at worst not collapse all together.

If on the other hand you give a handful of suppliers sh80b, which is the sh50,000 distributed among the 1.6m families living in poverty, they will save it in his bank, import new furniture and vehicles, pay school fees for their children or seek treatment abroad and even invest abroad. True, they may also buy some land (keeping the money among the fellow rich) or build a new mansion, and even pay school fees for some village orphans.

It is hard to argue against a direct injection of cash into local communities, which incidentally, will still find its way into the pockets of big business, eventually. A trickle up effect. But

the connected don’t want these drip, drip returns, they want the money to be gushing hard and fast and to hell with the rest of us...

 

Beyond the pressure from the connected few, the idea of handing out cash to the vulnerable as part of package to jump start the economy is met with the argument that it will create dependency. We just sounds like a logical assumption to make but falls flat in the face of the evidence, which shows that most people who are beneficiaries find a way to wean themselves off the benefits to become more productive members of society.

The argument may mask the real reason. Many political disturbances have resulted when faced with worsening economic conditions, governments withdraw these benefits. 

To sustain a welfare system over generations, requires disciplined budgetary processes, so when the bad times come – as they inevitably do, you can still sustain welfare payments to your people....

The mixed Scandinavian economies could teach us a thing or two in this direction. 

In vulnerable economies like ours, financing even a minimal social benefits scheme would mean borrowing from abroad and there our fear – reasonably so, of donor interference rears its ugly head.

A running scale of benefits to small business and the poor, going from cash handouts or grants, to soft loans and all the way up would be a good idea.

WHY NSSF AS A PENSION FUND IS A GOOD IDEA

Just when we had forgotten about the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) than it is back in the news.

A few weeks ago, an opinion hazarded in parliament that the Fund should payout 20% of members savings to help them over the corona crisis, caused an uproar.

On one side of the argument the NSSF management argued that the proposal was impractical, would hamper and even jeopardise its operations and above all they couldn’t execute it if they wanted to under the current law. 

The supporters of the  proposal argued that it was their money and it should be released, fear their money may have been pilfered and they are seeing ghosts and conspiracies lurking around every corner.

An amendment of the NSSF law currently winding its way through parliament has served to stoke the flames of the debate.

In the original amendment bill mid term access was restricted to access to funds for mortgage, medical, education and unemployment. But the committee that is working on the amendment has proposed that in addition people above 45 years or who have saved for at  least 10 years should be allowed to withdraw some of their savings.

No sooner had the dust settled on that discussion than it was proposed that NSSF be turned into a pension fund from its current status as provident fund. 

The difference is to shift away from a lump sum payment to workers when they retire to a monthly pension for the remainder of their lives.

The shift to a pension fund is likely to be an unpopular one. 

"For most members the expected payout at retirement is the most money any of them have had at one time. The mentality is that when they get their money their money problems will be done for good....

Unfortunately the numbers don’t support this feeling. According to NSSF eight in ten of its members have nothing to show for their money after two years following retirement.

The horror! You retire at 55 and probably have twenty years of life ahead and you have gone through your savings in two years.

But that shouldn’t be surprising.

If you get your current savings with NSSF and divide it by your annual salary, it is unlikely it can last you five years at your current standard of living..

 

I was amused to hear one person say that the people who wipe out their savings are only those with small take outs. That those who withdraw sh100m and above are doing well.

I would put my money on it that it’s the other way around. It’s the ones with big cash outs that blow up their savings and are back on the street looking for a job within two years.

"We seem to think that to improve our financial literacy we need a lot of money and we will be fine. And that is the problem....

If you can not manage the little you have, a lot of money will only serve to magnify your indiscipline with money. Hence the reason why the people who get the most money blow their money faster than the smaller savers.

So

a shift to a pension fund would actually save us from ourselves....

The compromise would be for members to be allowed to withdraw between 30 and 50% of their savings in a lump sum with the remainder being paid out as pension over the remainder of their lives.

There are other reasons why the turning NSSF into a pension fund makes sense, not least of all the anticipated massive payout in 15 to 20 years from now, when the majority of the current members seek to cash out, but keeping members living in dignity for the remainder of their lives has to be at the top of the list.

In the new law there is a provision for voluntary savings. While this is targeted at the informal sector it would do wonders for those in the formal sector, who can save over and above the mandatory 5% stipulated  by law. This allows one to have a bigger pool of cash from which to draw at retirement.

I expect the conversion to a pension scheme will be an unpopular one, but it will be the right thing to do, just as government compelling workers to save with NSSF 35 years ago was the right thing to do.

I can bet that even then people argued against handing over their monies to NSSF, arguing that they should be allowed to save how and where they wish. 

The figures again show that easily for nine in ten savers their NSSF stash is the biggest asset after years of hard work and squandering the remaining 95% of their income.

NOW GIVE US MONEY NOT POSHO

In starts and fits, government has been distributing maize flour and beans to the vulnerable populations of Kampala and Wakiso.

The program that has been in motion since the beginning of April is still ongoing, despite earlier plans to complete in two weeks.

Apart from a few questions of quality, most recipients seem to have been grateful for the handout.

As the government slowly lifts the lock down, it will have to contend with the economic debris left behind.

The lock down, the restriction of movement and congregation, was intended to slow the rate of infection, which for all intents and purposes we have done very well.

At the time of writing this the number of recorded infections was shy of 300, about two months since we recorded our first case. Going by the rate of infection elsewhere we should have crossed the 1000-mark by now.

The lock down’s secondary reason was to allow government improve its capacity to test, track and treat eventual infections that will occur.

 " With the lifting of the lock down infections will rise and time will tell whether government was ready enough...

The lock down also brought economic activity to a near standstill, the net effect of this is that many businesses will shut down and jobs will be lost as we try to come to terms with the after effects of the lock down.

 

We are opening up to world where there is a lot of idle capacity but little demand to take this up.

So the New Vision for instance has seen its sales fall to below 20,000 copies a day, but the machinery and people to produce the paper are still largely in place.

Ideally what should happen is that as soon as people get back on the streets our sales jump back to pre-covid-19 levels immediately. That is unlikely to happen.

This scenario is being replicated across the economy, across all industries (except the telecommunications companies maybe).

During the global financial crisis that happened about a decade ago, western economies grappled with how to handle the situation.

The US sought to bail out its giant companies in industry and finance, the argument being they were too big to fail. That if they did fail, the ripple effect across the economy of lost productivity and job losses would be catastrophic.

Europe did a bit of that but emphasised more shoring up the social security net for its people.

The result,

while the US on paper came out of the slump faster, wealth inequalities widened and the most vulnerable people in that society were badly affected...

Europe was still in recovery mode by the time the Corona crisis came around, but recovery was more spread out among the population.

Given the experience of the western economies, it seems obvious that Uganda will have to thing deeper about social security if it is to come out of this crisis with some hope of future prosperity.

This week the US, through their USAID office here announced it will be handing out cash – sh92,000 a month for three months to a few thousand people around the country.

The money is supposed to help these vulnerable people get back on their feet during these hard times.

From a purely humanitarian standpoint it  is hard to argue against helping the least of our brothers.

However, plans to do this have come against two roadblocks. One, isn’t this a sure way to encourage dependency among our people. And secondly, how long can such programs be sustained.

Thankfully we need not go on guess work. The government has been running a pilot unconditional cash grant to the elderly, SAGE (Social Assistance Grants for Empowerment) for the last decade.

The government gave people over 65 were being given sh25,000 monthly in a program that expanded to 57 districts from less than 20.

A study done by UNICEF showed that these grants had had far reaching benefits not only to the recipients but their respective communities as well.

The benefits  included more employment, improved school enrollment and better feeding.

Its an expensive endevour to carry out all year around, that’s why government has raised the age requirement to 80 to spread the initiative across the country.

Beyond the feel good factor of helping the most vulnerable members of the society there is some hard economic sense for government to be making these handouts, especially now.   

"Most welfare programs in the western economies took off after the second world war. It was a way not only to aid the people but also to jump start industry, what is the point of manufacturing all those bicycles or shoes or plates if there is no one to buy them?....

So by helping the common man back on their feet they were creating a market for industry.  

The spillover into economic growth is quite obvious. There are studies which show such grants have a comparable return on investment as infrastructure.

Thankfully the tools to make direct payments have already been tested and explored under SAGE so delivery shouldn’t be a problem if we committed to the program tomorrow.

So instead of a handful of people benefitting from government relief aid more people will benefit.

You are giving me maize and beans,  thank you very much but I might need soap or charcoal or medicine more urgently now. If you give me money I will make those decisions for myself much more efficiently.

The question though, how is government going to afford it? Given the anaemic state of our coffers now there is no doubt that government would have to borrow to support such a program, but given that these monies will be used to support  local business it would have to be considered a good spending of tax payers money.

I HAVE A BUSINESS…WHAT DO I DO AFTER LOCK DOWN?

In the last seven weeks or so economic activity has come to a standstill as a result of the lockdown.

The restrictions and movement and congregation has meant businesses have been forced to shut down and the more vulnerable businesses, those in dying industries or carrying too much debt will not survive.

It will be brutal.

Tips gleaned from several businessmen and all over the place suggest this need not be the death knell for our businesses.

Here are some tips for businessmen to survive an even thrive when the lock down is lifted.

1. Call in the goodwill you have built, if any

The biggest problem for all businesses to begin with is working capital, in simple terms are you making enough money to pay off your day to day bills.

Revenues collapsed to zero or near zero in recent weeks, while liabilities – rent, salaries,  utilities continue to accumulate.

"No doubt you are going to have to take a panga to your costs to match this new reality. But that might not be practical all the time. 

Say for example you have a workforce of 10 people to run your shop, factory or whatever business you have and to service existing contracts you need all hands on deck, laying off people may not be wise, may even be detrimental to the long term health of your business.

This when the goodwill you built up over the years with your landlord, bankers, suppliers and even workers is going to come in handy.

The hard conversations have already begun. Can the bank allow you not only a restructuring of your debt but also a facility to improve your working capital? Can your landlord allow you to pay your rent arrears over a longer period of time? Can your suppliers give you goods on credit for longer periods than previoulsly? Can your workers take a pay cut, allow daily allowances rather than a pay check, unpaid leave or work longer hours for less pay?

What about your shareholders, can you go back to them and ask for more money. Based on the returns you have been giving them will this be like detoothing a leopard?

All these negotiations will depend on what your relationships have been like in the past. If you have accumulated enough good will, people will give you the benefit of doubt, trusting that you will make good somewhere down the line.

2. Cashflow is not everything, its the only thing

The say profit is an opinion, cash is fact. Given the challenegs outlined above you have to hit the ground running. Sales have to start happening on day one.

"The key to increasing sales is communication. Do people know you are even open for business? Do they know what you are selling? Do they know why they should buy for you?

Invest in improving the communication around your good and service. If no one knows about you, who will buy from you.

Good customer service before the lock down will ensure word of mouth endorsments. But that is not enough.

When things were good you did not need a marketing and advertising budget, now your survival may very well depend on it. This will what will drive revenues, bring in the cash that will improve your working capital position. 

3. Your people are your business

When things are good it i strue you may have become overstaffed. A lot of dead wood hanging around. So the temptation to look at payroll as the first way to start cutting costs is a tempting one.

But this should not be done in isolation of an understanding of your core business. The lady at the till may look like an easy target but her customer service (her smile?) maybe what brings in the paying customers. Removing low margin goods from the shelf may backfire because they are what draw the customers in to buy the high margin stuff. The administrative assistant may seem useless (we all type our own letters these days) but he maybe the one who holds everything together, allowing the rest on you to focus on the “important” stuff.

"Your people are the frontline of your business, you treat them shabbily they treat your customers shabbily  and that will be the end of your business...

4. Back to basics, the business gets paid first

When you are starting a business everybody – the supplier, the banker, the workers, gets paid before you, the owner gets paid.

As things got better you started earning more from the business. These are not normal times we are  literally back to square one. A mindset adjustment will be needed.

Chinese billionaire Jack Ma said in this year the purpose of every business will be to survive. Grandiose schemes of growth and expansion are secondary, at worst, will have to wait.

"Its back to basics facilitate sales through marketing, watch your costs  like a hawk, build up reserves by taking less out of the business, all the while maintaining a long term perspective. ..

5. If all else fails ....

In respect to that last observation this lockdown  has thrown up some painful home truths. 

Maybe you may have to consider a complete reorientation of the business, your business model doesn’t work anymore. 

You may have to attract new investors into the business, never mind its a business that has been  in the family for generations.

You may have to forgo that prime location for a cheaper  one to stay alive.

And if all else fails you may have to shut down the business, take your losses and look to other things....

This list is by no means exhaustive or in order of priority but it should offer some food for thought.

Clearly survival of the your business will depend on how well run it was before the lockdown. 

Secondly, how quickly you can face up to the new reality and respond effectively and efficiently.

OF NSSF AND BEING THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

As the lockdown has dragged on and cash become increasingly short it was inevitable that National Social Security Fund (NSSF) would come under attack.

NSSF is the single largest financial institution in the country, its muscle drawn from the savings of its two million members.

At last count the Fund has sh12trillion in assets.

According to the current law that governs NSSF, the Fund can only pass out money to its members under five circumstances, when they hit retirement age -- 55 years  old, if they hit 50 and are out of work for at least a year, if they are incapacitated and can’t work any more, leave the country or join public service, which has its own pension scheme and finally if they die, god forbid, their next of keen can claim their savings.

So under the current law there is no place for NSSF to dish out money to members as a result of the current crisis.

"That is not NSSF being mean with our money, that’s the law...

In August last year when an Amendment to the law that governs NSSF was tabled, the public was  more fixated on the proposal that benefits will be taxed at collection, at retirement or whenever, than at the point of contribution.

As it is now URA taxes your gross pay and then NSSF carves off its five percent, which in effect means your contribution has been taxed and hence you suffer no tax when you are collecting your savings.

In the amendment it was proposed that mid term access be allowed for members but under certain prescribed circumstances. The mid term access would be allowed to cater for medical, education, mortgage or unemployment.

"This amendment will better reflect NSSF’s role as provider of social security to its members....

Debate  on this bill has been going in parliament since September.

NSSF management were among the first to present to the relevant committee and were reported as being in support of the bill and the mid-term access provision in particular.

 What really got people’s knickers in a twist recently, is a leaked letter in which NSSF boss Richard Byarugaba was responding to a querry from the finance ministry about the feasibility of releasing 20 percent of member savings to help them get over this corona crisis.

The lockdown that started at the end of March restricted movement and congregation of people and has led to a collapse in economic activity. As a result jobs have been lost and it is expected there will be a lot of business collapse.

So the argument for relief for your everyday man is impossible to deny.

In his letter to the ministry Byarugaba pointed out that this release would cause an out flow of at least sh2.6trillion and an additional sh800b, which are the budgtted payouts to retirees and other claimants.

He argued that this would force NSSF to liquidate its assets at forced sale value, disrupt and even jeopardise the business irreparably.

"NSSF has assets of just under sh12trillion, but, this is not cash stashed away in the basement of Workers’ House...

Most of this money is held in treasury bills and bonds, company shares in and outside Uganda and real estate. To cash these out will take time and lead to a loss to the Fund and members. 

Byarugaba also argued that because they are biggest holders of government paper, issued to stabilise prices, the shilling and support the budget, the ripple effect of such an action may have a detrimental  effect on the wider economy.

In response to this analysis several people have come to refute the Fund’s advice to the minister. 

They argue among other things, that there are instruments available that can spare the Fund losses, that the Fund is abdicating its role to provide its members’ social security and that the Fund should stop investing abroad because it is developing other countries and not Uganda.

"There really is no contradiction between NSSF’s support for mid-term access as proposed in the amendment bill and it’s technical opposition to release within the next few weeks of a third of its assets to consume....

The key issue really is what can NSSF do within the law that governs it. Byarugaba may wish this, that or the other but is it legal or put another way what can he get away with, without doing a illegality, to help his members?

The finance minister has the right to cause a statutory instrument to effect some changes in the way NSSF works, but for him to make such a far reaching change he would need to consult widely. This is not Idi Amin’s1970s’ Uganda.

The people who feel so strongly about inserting such a clause can have their MPs make the proposals in parliament. Thankfully government is in the middle of amending the NSSF law.

Byarugaba’s experience has been in banking and it probably turns his stomach to hear the clamour to use long term savings to cover short term needs. That is the surest way to poverty.

No doubt that in coming weeks and months we are going to experience financial stress as only the generation that was here pre-1986 can relate to. Those who can appreciate this are less than 20% of the population.

But raiding the Fund is not the way to resolve the issue. What happens when they release the monies and they run out, will we blackmail NSSF to release more?

IMPROVE YOUR CUSTOMER CARE OR DIE

The other day I ordered a delivery. I ordered it early in enough in the moring and thought by midmorning I should have taken delivery. Hours came and went and nothing happened. Calls to the supplier were met with deafening silence.

Eventually they turned up, after 5pm. Long stories about failing phone battery and having to walk all the way from Nansana ensued.

The icing on the cake? Could I pay him extra because he would have to take a boda boda to beat the curfew?

 

The reality of the corona crisis is that nothing is going to be the same again.

 

For eons us poor customers have suffered terrible customer service from our suppliers.

Forget about going the extra mile, just the basics of courtesy, cleanliness and timeliness are alien to our businesses, and then they complain that the economy is doing badly!

After the lockdown with cash at a premium, we will not tolerate just anything for our kamoney, which has survived corona. Here below are a fast and ready list on customer service that may alleviate the plight of us the long suffering clients, while keeping your till ringing.

1.Mean what you say, say what you mean

Nothing is as annoying as buying a good or service and it doesnt work as advertised. There are a few of us who will give you an earful for doing us wrong, but there is also a big a number who will not say anything and you will never see them again -- nor their friends or relatives.

It is a cliche in business that it is cheaper, and therefore more profitable, hanging on to existing clients than getting new ones. Believe it.

Competition is real if you have a client he is yours until he finds a better provider, why allolw him to have his head turned?

2. We dont owe you anythinig

So you opened your shop at 6 in the morning after being open till 11 pm the previous night. You have a flooding problem, anti the rain so we should bare with you wading through the aisles, you will mop later. That we should have waited for you  to come, since you were held up somewhere and couldnt open shop at the usual time.

Because what? Because you are the only one doing what you do? Because you have been a round a long time we should only buy from you? Because .... Sorry it doesn't work like that.

 In a world of infinite choices, things to do and places to be, we want convenience not have to do mathematical probabilities.

We dont owe you anything, after all we are paying.

3.You are not alone

The beautiful ones are not yet born. You may be the flavour of the month now but that may not be for very long. You need to invest in you and your business. My favourite  businessman, I have said before is Charlie Lubega. When he took over Ange Noire Discotheque he was literally the only game in town. But regardless he made a concious and visible effort to regularly upgrade his venue, be it improve the music, the deco, the cleanliness. And all this he did when there wasnt any real competition on the horizon.

 

He effectivley raised the barrier to entry, 

sending many a discotheque to their graves before they had gained traction. Ange Noire was the gold standard. Is it any surprise it is the last man standing?

 

Thats how you need to be thinking about your business. Essentially take the long view, invest in improving the customer experience and we will repay your with our loyalty and our kamoney left over from corvid.

4.Around noon doesnt cut it

The story of the money who turns up for a meeting at noon. When reminded that it was scheduled for 11 am he retorted. "It is around that time!"

 

Keeping time is not a mzungu thing. Keeping time, is the courtesy you extend to your partner. It says you value their time and you will not waste it. It says you are grateful and grateful to be given the opportunity to meet . Keeping time says you are reliable and can be trusted with lesser things like money and responsibility.

And if you can't make the appointment call ahead, preferably before the alloted hour to say you are running late.

5. Talk to us

Related to the last point we understand things don't always go accordning to plan and you cannot deliver as expected. We will be chaffed but give you the benefit of doubt if you keep us abreast of progress. We would rather you underpromise and overdeliver than the reverse.

I dont know anyone who likes excuses. Just get the job done. But if you can't, let us know in good time, because we too are managing the expectations of our clients and significant others. 

6. The extra mile

Those are the basics and when you have ticked them off, you can't rest on your laurels. You dont want contented customers, you want customers  who will champion your cause. And the truth is it doesnt take very much to keep your customers singing your praises. Technology can help.

Now with more and more people using debit cards and mobile money, your customers need not be nameless individuals who stream in and out of your shop. You have their name, their phone numbers and record of how regular they are to your shop and what they tend to buy.All this data can create an intimacy that can be capitalised on. 

It bogles the mind that not more supermarkets have loyalty cards. Which offer bonunses or discounts for repeat customers. Eben the shops that have them are too mechanical, leaving the task to the machine adn not introducing a human touch to the process.

Imagine theplesant suprise it would be if a call to regualr customer who is in the habit of buying curry powder oncec amonth is made around the time they normally do. I know a regular client of a supermarket who now swears by them because they offeredt o deliver her shopping during the lock down. A service they do not normally do, but because she had accumulated a ton of bonus points they would go the extra mile for her.

THE LOCK DOWN WILL END, WHAT TO DO?

It was an initiation ceremony. A rite of passage. Call it what you may.

It involved getting all the S1 boys to jump from the diving board into the pool about seven meters below.

For swimmers this would not be a problem, but for the senior boys lying in wait in the water, whose intention was to “dunk” the new entrants to the school when they hit the water.

I can not forget the feeling of running out of breath as they kept my head under water and the relief when I was tossed to the side of the pool sputtering, coughing and spitting.

Watching a video recently of covid-19 patient struggling for breath, reminded me of that time more than 30 years ago when I was fighting for breath underwater and yet there was none to be had.

Of course,

people with respiratory challenges know this reality all too well. I left mine behind in the school swimming pool.

I have no intention of repeating that experience in my life time, nor would I wish it on anyone else, except for … but that is a story for another day.

As we approach the lifting of the lock down that  memory is what keeps me in check. Social distancing will be key. Shaking hands, out. Hugs? How do you spell that? 

Knowing what we know now after more than two months of bombardment with corona virus messaging, we should not need anyone to tell us how to behave.

"President Yoweri Museveni when he does eventually lift the lockdown, most probably in phases for months to come, will be making a general prescription but we have an individual responsibility we can not abdicate to him....

While as a country we have been spared the health effects of contracting the disease – we have had 126 covid-19 cases at time of writing this, we have not been spared the economic downside.

A report released last week by the organisation Financial Sector Deepening, Uganda (fsd Uganda) showed that four in five of us could not maintain their normal lifestyle after just 15 days of lockdown.

I almost laughed the other day when someone said lifting the lockdown will mean we have survived the virus. As long as there are cases around the world a reopening of our borders and airports mean we will risk infection sometime in the future.

With the best estimates for the development of a viable vaccine seen late next year, it is clear we will live in fear of the disease for at least one more year.

A sharp spike in the infection rates may see the imposition of other lock downs in future.

"Unlike the other viral infection that sends chills down our spine, HIV/AIDS, if you contract Covid-19 you can spread it to your loved ones with not so much as a sneeze in their direction. Which makes personal responsibility even more urgent.

I fear that our low infection rate during this first wave has bred a complacency, which is setting us up for a higher infection rate during the second wave.

The Spanish flu of the early 20th century, which laid waste to western Europe, had a more fatal second wave because people came out jubilating in the streets after the lock down was lifted then.

We will have to restrain our relief and jubilation.

 

From a health perspective it is safe to say we have passed the first test, but that will count for nothing if infections increase rapidly and wipe out the gains of this first struggle.

The critics of the lockdown are loud but not overwhelming. As a society we have had to measure the risk of opening up versus the health risks.

Which brings me to another point. Madagascar has been helping all and sundry with their home made remedy for the disease, I hear they are going to start charging for it.

"The conventional health industry have threatened to laugh them out of town, as snake oil salesmen and worse. But the portion is in high demand on the continent, with countries as far afield as Guinea and  Mali signing up...

Given the circumstances a more appropriate reaction would be to study the drug’s efficacy in Madagscar and if found to have some promise, research its component parts to see what works or not.

But we know the huge investments made by the pharmaceutical companies can not allow for some home remedy to steal their thunder, unless it is promoted by themselves, of course.

I say give Madagascar’s concoction the benefit of doubt. This as I reach for my own concoction of honey, ginger, garlic, lemon and Mululusa all mixed in hot water.