Tuesday, August 20, 2013

GOD GIVES MEAT TO THE TOOTHLESS



Earlier this the year CNN Travel, a television magazine program watched by millions of travelers, voted Kidepo National Park the third best tourist destination in Africa.

While launching a new product last week, the Ik On Moru Engole nature walk Johnson Masereka’s the area conservation manager said, numbers to the park had spiked since the nomination.

The CNN Travel magazine described the park as “Uganda’s most beautiful, remote and least explored park …. Those who take the trouble to get here are rewarded with phenomenal wildlife sightings and a level of exclusivity that can rarely be had at any cost in neighbouring countries.”

Its main attractions they say are spectacular landscapes and great buffalo herds.

"The interesting thing about Kidepo is that its probably the least developed in terms of infrastructure. In fact visitors to the park report that it is a cause for more than worry when it rains in the area and churns the roads into a muddy morass, impassable by even the sturdiest offroad vehicles...

Kidepo is just one in numerous tourist attractions in this country, many of which we nationals take for granted and if  the inaccessible, park is being feted around the world one wonders what will happen when they see our other parks.

This kind of effortless endowment is at the heart of many of our problems. They say that God gives meat to those who don’t have teeth.

Country with not even a tenth of our natural beauty are drawing in millions of tourists who shell out billions of shillings a year.

In a recent survey of the most popular tourist destinations, 2013 by Business Insider magazine it had Bangkok at the top with almost 16 million tourists expected this year who will shell out more than $14b.

Not to downplay the country, but a religious attraction here and there and that exotic Asian appeal may account for its popularity among tourists. But how do you explain Riyadh, Saudi Arabia or Taipei, Taiwan or Shanghai, China or even Dubai? In terms of natural endowments all of these cities put together do not even come close to Uganda, yet all of them pull billions of dollars in revenues annually.

But we shouldn’t look too far for the answer.

Compared to these cities, Uganda is generally an inhospitable country for a tourist.

One thing that these countries have mastered is how to provide a likable experience for their guests. It goes beyond the toothy but sincere smiles we flash around as Ugandans.

Coming into Entebbe Airport after marveling at the approach over the shimmering lake, you are met by long lines at customs, a long wait at the conveyor belt before wading through unruly taxi drivers jostling for your attention.

"If you land at night you drive out on an unlit narrow highway, arriving in Kampala where the traffic laws as you know them count for nothing and there are no road signs to tell you where you are. If you are not a high flyer you want to live in a decent hotel, not the high end names, but there is no way of telling this unless you visit the hotels and test the taps and light switches for yourself. Then how do you get around this town? There is no bus service, no underground. And the taxis? You really don’t know whether you can trust them...

This before you try to get out to the parks and there are any number of tour guides and agencies operating out of hard to verify premises, it’s a miracle we haven’t had more tourist horror stories.

For us Ugandans we know how to maneuver through this mayhem, but for a visitor, on their first visit to Uganda it can be a testing experience.

A regular globe trotter would argue that this is not an unusual experience wherever they land, but the leading tourist destinations have institutionalized small things like updated city maps, road signs, information services, public transport to make these experiences as painless as possible.

How else do you explain that Singapore, a barren rock in the ocean, attracts 12 million people annually, about three times their population, who willingly divest themselves of $13.5b – or more than half Uganda’s GDP, while last year barely a million visited us?

It’s a scandal.

Word of mouth endorsement is more powerful than any million dollars spent on a dodgy tv ad campaign; if the tourists are happy here they will not only return but they will recommend it to their friends and relatives and they in turn will pass on the message.

"The billions we are planning to spend on an airline that will be dead on arrival, will be better spent improving the Entebbe airport experience, lighting our streets, improving the security, specifically in our towns and around the tourist attractions, generally working on making our visitors feel at home...

It is all very nice that Kidepo is top of the range but we need to move beyond just banking on our natural resources and invest to attract the tourists who are so attracted to our wonders --- but only from afar!

Monday, August 19, 2013

MAKERERE UNDIG YOUR HEAD FROM THE SAND


This week the university council closed Makerere University indefinitely. This was triggered by the lecturers’ demand for a doubling of their pay, a demand the university nor government, its main backer said was feasible.

This is yet another cross road in the history of the once hallowed institution.

It is possible that Makerere’s teaching staff are under paid. It is even possible that the government could cut other expenditures to meet lecturers’ demands many times over. And it is conceivable that the university can regain its former glory.

What is for sure is that the university is running out of goodwill and the unthinkable could happen to it if its leadership does not seat down, appreciate the challenges to its very existence and take the appropriate steps required to revitalize the once “Harvard of Africa”.

At one time Makerere was the go to university in the region. That changed with establishment of the Dar es Salaam and Nairobi Universities. In the recent past Makerere was the only university in the country. That changed with the liberalization of tertiary education.

Each of these and many other development in the education sector, including the  university’s fading glory means that its centrality to our education system is now in question at best, or a nostalgic myth at worst.

And if Makerere has not read the writing on the wall yet, let it know it’s not at the top of government’s funding priorities.

Of course the dons on the hill would vehemently disagree with this analysis and that would be unfortunate.

Appreciating these changed times would make them appreciate why the government seems reluctant to foot the bill for the elite institution and wake them up to the new, mostly painful changes, they will have to make to remain relevant.

Faced with less than finite resources, competing demands and a cold hard political calculation it is possible, even conceivable that Makerere can be left in limbo, privatized altogether or shut down and it’s valuable real estate apportioned to the usual suspects.

Makerere’s key problem is not a lack of cash but an inadequate management.

For an institution that is as asset rich in lands, intellectual property and good will, to even need to rely on government at all is a scandal that points to a management that cannot unlock the wealth on which it seats.

The best universities in the world get some money from their respective governments and student tuition,  but these are not the major sources of their income.

The UK universities from whom Makerere University derive its legacy, still rely on government sponsorship and student fees for the bulk of their funding. A model that is coming under strain as the UK government works to cut its contributions in the light of the recent global financial crisis.

Makerere should look to Harvard University, which has an endowment fund, the biggest source of operating income for the famous university monies. An endowment fund comprises of monies set aside for investment and the income used to run the university.

Tuition accounts for less than a fifth of the university’s income with about a half of its funding coming from research sponsors.

Obviously Harvard with its $50b endowment fund, the biggest of any university in the world,  has more muscle than our Makerere but the Harvard’s $2.4b operating budget similarly dwarfs Makerere’s $50m or so budget. 

They say the best time to invest is 20 years ago and the next best time to invest is today.

Makerere can start where it is, sweat its current assets, begin to build and endowment fund with a view to weaning itself off – or at least reduce its dependence on the central government, otherwise when the day of final reckoning finally comes it will throw up some very unpalatable alternatives.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

IT’S THE POLITICAL ECONOMY STUPID!!!!


 A fortnight ago South African minister Trevor Manuel was in town as a guest of the central bank.

He was the guest speaker at the Joseph Mubiru Memorial lecture and the subject of his speech was, “Unlocking Africa’s growth potential—Aligning decision making to implementation and delivery”.

Manuel is well suited to speak on the subject because at its center are the dual questions of how do you grow economies and if you can manage that, how do you distribute the spoils equitably? These questions vexed him for the 13 years he served as South Africa’s finance minister and continue to do so now that he is the minister of his country’s National Planning Commission.

Resolving the two related challenges not only requires an understanding but also a firm grounding in the politics of the economies one is looking at.

Amazing as it sounds but what makes the difference between the standard of living of one population as compared to another is the imaginary boundaries drawn in the ground that divide nations.

These boundaries are political constructs, which become very real in that they determine where one government or the others influence starts and ends.

It is the difference between whether there is regular mobile telephony in Bundibugyo versus eastern Congo; or whether there is loadshedding in Busia in Uganda or Busia in Kenya or whether the Katuna in Uganda is littered with plastic paper bags or not as is the case on the Rwanda side of Katuna.

For a long time now donor agencies have gone about their business dispensing with economic prescriptions while claiming not to want to acknowledge  the politics of the recipient nations.

The reason for this also is that the economists advising our governments by ignoring the political nuances of nations they are dealing with have often cut-and-pasted one prescription of one nation on another, with disastrous consequences.

The result of course has been that if you put all these billions of dollars in aid to a pure economic cost benefit analysis the results have fallen far short of any acceptable measure.


So a person like Manuel is a good guy to listen to.

Whereas his subject seemed like an economic challenge the theme running through his talk was the need for Africa to get its politics together if it is to live up to its full potential as an economic powerhouse.

As it stands now we are 50-odd countries, most of them unviable as standalone economies and all trying to jostle for position in the international arena.

Manuel suggests that the issue of sovereignty should be looked at again, as it is delivering little to nothing to improving the welfare of the continent’s multitudes, which is what politics is supposed to do.

Economically this makes sense.

But to unravel the patch work of interests by the various political elitists will take another kind of skill than calculus and econometrics.

As Libya’s former President Muammar Gadaffi learnt to his detriment. While understanding the necessity for a United States of Africa, Gadaffi clearly had not factored in the continents politics or thought he could just could just roll over them by force of will.

Manuel recognized the East African Community as being ahead of other regional blocks in its integration. It may help that there are enough people among our country’s political elite who benefitted as ordinary people from the original community, so it is not an abstract concept.

I think the starting point to forging a unified Africa is to improve the movement of people, goods and services around the continent, hence a need for cross border infrastructure investments.

Our colonial history means that our entire infrastructure is aimed at the nearest port within the former colony and beyond that we don’t have a very serious web of infrastructure to facilitate inter regional travel. Which explains why it easier to get to Mombasa through former British colony Kenya than it is from Kampala to Kisangani.

This essentially perpetuates the division between Britain and Belgium and has no place on our continent.

The reason this circus has continued decades after independence is because it serves our political elite to keep the continent fragmented, after all they do not share in our poverty hence no urgency to generate economic growth for all.

Once the infrastructure is place people move, trade ensues and there begins a mutual benefit for either party to remain stable at least and prosper at best.

But before all that takes place we have to paper over delicate egos and parochial interests while important are irrelevant to the greater good.

In the absence of the cold war ideological divide so we need to look again at our development experts and whether they are the best placed to advance the cause.

To paraphrase Bill Clinton, “It’s the political economy, stupid!”

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

EBYAFFE RETURN, THE END OF A LONG JOURNEY?



Last week the 20th anniversary of Kabaka Ronald Mutebi’s coronation was bolstered by a central government pledge to return the Kingdom’s properties to Mengo, Buganda’s administrative center.

Reports were that among the properties to be returned were the Kingdom’s official estates for the county (Masaza), sub-county (Amagombolola) and properties of chiefs.

"A contest of wills between Uganda’s then President  and Kabaka of Buganda Edward Mutesa II and his prime minister Milton Obote, led to the nullification of the 1962 constitution, the exiling of Mutesa, the abolition of Kingdoms and the appropriation of all Kingdom properties by the central government....

Following the restoration of the monarchy in 1993, the return of these properties as well as the 9,000 square miles, rental arrears accumulated by the government occupying Kingdom properties and the restoration of autonomy to the kingdom have been at the center of the often volatile relationship between Kampala and Mengo.

The government’s holding on to these properties has been seen by its critics as a means to keep Mengo in check. The resources that would come with the return would make Mengo a more credible economic force if managed properly and a counterweight to the central government’s will, they argued.

The history of these lands bestowed on the kingdom’s elite by the 1900 Buganda  agreement, whose restoration while a useful rallying cry by Mengo means that the cause has not gained real traction among the everyday Muganda.

However, the perceived threat of open revolt by the most populous tribe in the country, on whose lands at least seven in every ten shillings of this country’s economic output is generated, has been a useful club to hold over Kampala’s head...

It is suggested that the management of the relationship has cost several Kingdom prime ministers their positions in recent years and at the top of the new Katikiro, Charles Mayiga’s agenda must be a resolution or at least significant progress on the issue.

The latest developments therefore came at an opportune time for the Kingdom’s young chief minister and one would not be surprised if he claimed some credit given his long tenure as a member of the Kabaka’s cabinet.

It is not a done deal.

The nitty gritty of what, when and how will be decided over time.

One can assume in coming negotiations each side will look to extract maximum advantage; Mengo to get all its properties back and government to ensure that this economic base is not turned against it, used in the aid of its rivals.

You can be sure that both sides will be determined not to cede any ground or when all is said and done at least sell the impression that they have come out better off from the ordeal.

"If one was to hazard a guess it’s unlikely that negotiations will be finalized in a matter of weeks or even months....

The issue of restoring Buganda’s properties has hung like an ominous rain cloud over our lives for the last 20 years and it would be interesting to see how its resolution tints the political landscape in coming years.

Whichever way you look at it the conclusion of this never ending saga throws up interesting possibilities for the future.

While there may be fears that Mengo, emboldened by its new found wealth would look to settle old scores by sponsoring candidates against the ruling NRM, history of its tacit support for Reform Agenda and more recently the Suubi coalition would play into this thinking, events could turn out very differently.

A contented Kingdom preoccupied with unlocking the potential of its assets for the benefit of its people may not want to rock the boat and instead choose to maintain a status quo where its interests are guaranteed.

On the other hand fearing a complete whittling down of its leverage over Buganda, will the central government look to extract concessions that will guard against an unfettered Mengo falling in the with the opposition, maybe even not deliver all the Ebyaffe retaining something for future carrot and stick situation?

"One may question the viability of Mengo as a political force but  President Yoweri Museveni’s government seems to take the view that they would rather be safe than sorry....

Whichever way you look at it, this jostling for advantage is definitely a better alternative to the open hostility leading up to the storming of the Lubiri in 1966, whose consequences continue to reverberate down the ages and a situation all players seem wary to avoid.



Monday, August 12, 2013

KYEYO IS NO BED OF ROSES



From the UK last week came the chilling story of the alleged stabbing to death of Linah Keza by her estranged boyfriend David Nsubuga Kikaawa. According to reports neighbours were alerted to the trouble by the screams of Keza and when they investigated found her three year old daughter in a pool of her lifeless mother’s blood.

Also reported this week is that the UK government is stepping up its campaign against illegal immigration into the country. The “Go Home or Face Arrest” drive comes on the heels of a decision by her majesty’s government to introduce a £3000 (sh12m) bond which selected visitors from certain countries will be required to pay upon applying for a British visa.

For the time being the bond does not affect Uganda but that could change at the discretion of the UK government. Currently it applies to visitors from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nigeria and Ghana and the bond would be returned when they leave the country.

Both issues may be related, or not, as part of the larger picture of the strains our immigrants face abroad and the crazy lengths or driven to as a result.

First of all not all immigrants are illegals. Many are citizens or have valid resident status. But the pressures of being immersed in an alien culture, living far from home, with one eye still on developments at home with a hope of one day returning to the motherland – a hope that seems to recede with time, are generally similar differing only in degrees in depending largely on one’s station in that society.

Columnist Rudolf Okonkwo captured this schizophrenic existence in an online commentary “This American Life” in which describes landing in America with of living the fabled American dream. You quickly realize racism is alive, the almighty dollar can be in short supply, relationships are shallow, transitory and often mercenary and the pressures – self-inflicted or otherwise, to keep up appearances for the benefit of the people “back home” lead down a well-greased, slippery slope.

The years fly past, scarpering dreams and hopes, dashing ideas of returning home, the realization that those you left behind – some of whom had less intelligence, talent, beauty or whatever than you have in the tip of your little finger, have progressed steadily and surely making a worthwhile life for themselves. So after failing to reestablish yourself at home you slink back to the UK, US or wherever, if only so people can refer to you during kwanjulas and weddings as “a relative abroad who could not make it.”

We are seduced by the illusion as shown on the “reality” shows and soap operas on our TVs but the reality is different ball game.

Poverty, alienation, stress are more common than not and this can have a telling effect on anyone’s emotional and mental wellbeing.

Kikaawa’s trial is scheduled for January when the details of what transpired on that July night may come to light.

But one can expect that being abroad, away from longtime friends and family, hustling in a society in which you can starve in plain sight of your neighbor and in many instances knowing you have nothing to return to in your country of origin can do strange things to people.

This is by no means a justification of what Kikaawa might have done or not done, but should serve as a warning to intending immigrants – Kyeyos or otherwise, life abroad is not all it’s made out to be.  Immigrant-to-be,  be warned.

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