The event of the last few weeks took me back 20 years and a reminder that there is nothing new under the sun.
At the turn of the century we were gearing up for the second presidential race since 1986.
In 1996 President Yoweri Museveni won 74.2 percent of the vote beating Paul Ssemogerere into second with Kibirige Mayanja coming a distant third.
"It was not clear that Ssemogerere was going to run again, which raised the specter of an election where Museveni competed against himself. The NRM is rabidly averse to such a scenario. They don’t want 98 percent wins in the polls....
At around that time Nasser Sebagala – may his soul rest in peace, was back from the US where he had been convicted for passing forged checks. Before the conviction he had just become the mayor of Kampala but on his return he made it clear he was going to run for the highest office in the land. The Kampala elite smiled into their beers.
But a curious thing begun to happen. When Ssemogerere would try to have a rally it was preempted by security, but Sebagala aka Seya was running around the country holding rallies, drawing crowds and seemingly gaining momentum.
In trying to make sense of this I asked around. “We want a race. Ssemogerere is no competition so we need someone else to bring some excitement to the polls, but we know we will win them anyway” an insider told me.
In the back of my head, I thought my friend was reading too many Robert Ludlums.
I had to rethink this a few weeks later because Colonel Kizza Besigye threw his hat in the ring. To confirm my friend’s statement Sebagala’s campaign went out like a light, but not before questions were raised about his academic credentials, which had not been a problem until then.
Sebagala failed to get nominated to run for the presidency and he quickly fell in with the Besigye campaign. He of course, found time to win back his mayoral seat.
"I will be forgiven with this background in mind to look at the Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine campaign with a jaundiced eye....
The National Unit Platform (NUP) tell the public they are a young a party – barely months old, and recent flops in the special interest group elections are down to their newness. And then without missing a beat they claim they will be the ones to run the NRM out of town, when they don’t have a presence in half the country.
These are facts for all to see not least of all the government and its security agencies.
So then how do you explain the constant “harassment” of NUP/People Power? The narrative being sold is that the government/NRM is quaking in its boots at the growing popularity of the Reds.
Hillarious.
There are no miracles in politics. There are no spontaneous movements that upset governments at the polls or overthrow them all together.
"Below the surface of successful movements is huge organisational structure working furiously but quietly – not unlike the duck paddling furiously under water while remaining calm above the surface. This doesn’t need to be in offices and wheezing around in big four wheel drive cars. In today’s increasingly connected world the phone has taken over from other analogue technologies.
The Ayatollah Khomeini returned from 15 years exile to a hero’s welcome in Iran, shutting down the largest cities in the country. Two weeks prior to his return the ruling Shah had fled into exile himself, overwhelmed by the resistance to his CIA backed rule. This groundswell of support was far from spontaneous. Khomeini’s supporters distributed tapes of the Ayatollah drumming support for an overthrow of the Shah for years prior. The voice of the Ayatollah could not be stopped or resisted.
The point is there is a lot of work for NUP to do if it is to be in with a shout of even getting more than 22 percent of the vote in the next election.
Twenty two percent is the urban population according to the latest census.
Urban populations are known from being disproportionately loud for their size, wherever they are. And in countries, even on the continent where entrenched parties have been shown the door, it has been in countries that are more urbanised populations.
Uganda’s mostly rural population is where the action is now – the rate of urbanisation is changing that, and the one with the network to reach all of them -- boots (literally or figuratively) on the ground, will win.
"NUP are romantic, rabble rousers, rebels with a cause nevertheless, but they will quickly learn that its dangerous to read your own press clippings....
Said another way, in the words of the 1990s band Snap, “Don’t believe the hype, It’s a sequel."
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