THE ISIMBA HICCUP, WHAT IT SAYS ABOUT THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR

Last week the power station at Isimba dam was flooded forcing its shutdown and the subsequent loadshedding that has been experienced since.

"They say that, you will know who was swimming naked when the tide goes out and this incident did not only raise questions about the dam and its running but also whether the electricity sector is being run as it should....

Reports have it that the flooding was due to human error but it is also suggested that there were some structural concerns about the 183 MW dam.

On one hand it shows how far the sector has come when a major plant can be shut down and there is no total black out. The public annoyance with the lack of constant power outages was understandable as we have become used to uninterrupted power. It is no longer a privilege but a right, for the two million or so consumers on the grid.

On the other hand, the incident highlighted how far the sector has to go in ensuring consistent power. In a way its fortunate that this incident happened now, than if it had happened in the future when we would be talking about billions of dollars in lost economic activity.  This incident, minor, seen against the bigger scheme of things, is a wake up call the industry’s overseers need to heed to avert future catastrophe.

Since the major load shedding of the early 2000s that ended with the commissioning of the 250 MW Bujagali dam in 2012, the country has more than doubled its power generation capacity to almost 1000Mw dominated by hydropower but also including a mix of thermal and solar power.

Against a peak demand of about 500MW it came as a surprise that the country found itself in a crisis with the removal of Isimba’s 183MW. We made the painful discovery that there is a difference between installed and effective generation capacity.

Of all our installed capacity between 850MW and 957 MW depending on who you talk we have an effective generation capacity of between 550MW to 710 MW. The electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) reports an installed capacity of 1237.49 MW as of October2020.

Effective generation capacity is lower because, among other things, power losses, it is not prudent to run your turbines a maximum capacity, you also have to allow for down time due to maintenance but also because you have thermal plants, which are only switched on in emergencies or when the other plants are down for repair or maintenance.

So, horror of horrors, we do not generate as much power as we think.

Energy minister Ruth Nankabirwa said as a way to bridge the deficit they plan to import 60 MW from Kenya. Industry sources were however skeptical of the practicality of this as they thought Kenya was unlikely to commit that kind of power given the delicate situation they are in, following the recent general elections.

Uganda Electricity Generation company Ltd (UEGCL) turned on the Namanve thermal power plant but as of writing this Electromaxx, which operates thermal power plant in Tororo has not be caused to switch on their generators.

"With increased industry, the issue of power reliability is no longer an issue of pacifying heckling, middle class consumers but has a huge bearing on economic production. It can not be business as usual...

Relatedly, while the Karuma dam which is almost four years behind schedule, original commissioning was for November 2018, will bring 600 MW online, we are long over due to begin construction of another dam.

Due to our red tape, it takes between five and seven years to take a power project from inception to commissioning. With the continued growth in demand, it is conceivable that by the time all the turbines at Karuma are commissioned next year it won’t be long before the grid is living on the edge as it has been in the last two weeks.

As inconceivable as it looks if the energy sector does not grow beyond lurching from one crisis to another, we will find ourselves back in the days when we had day long loadshedding.

 South Africa, which has an installed capacity of 52,000 MW has forced power utility Eskom to enforce loadshedding of up to six hours daily. This disaster has been coming for the last 20 years. A failure of planning and run-away corruption has taken the great industrial nation to the point we were in the early 2000s.

The problems of our sector go beyond one dam. The industry overseers, in the energy ministry and at ERA, need to get back to the drawing board yesterday.

There is a silver lining to this tragicomedy. After dropping the ball in precipitating the current crisis UEGCL engineers as of writing this had brought back 45.7 MW online at Isimba and were working around the clock to restore full capacity. This may very well be a much-needed stress test for UEGCL, which is set to take over operations of Nalubale and Kiira dams next year.