KENYAN CAPPING OF LENDING RATES, POPULAR BUT NOT NECESSARILY RIGHT

Last week Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta signed into law a bill that seeks to cap how much banks charge the public for credit.

The law, passed by parliament a few weeks ago will cap interest rates at four percentage points above the Kenya central bank’s key policy rate which currently stands at 10.5 percent.

The move has proved quite popular in the country and Ugandans are watching with bated breath for their turn. We can expect some noises in that direction in the near future given our own high lending rates.

"The move when effected will have some positive, negative and unintended consequences.
At the center of the equation of course are the banks and the question of how they set their lending rates....

At the bottom of it is the cost of funds, how much does the bank pay for the money it lends out, the interest it pays on deposits. Simple common sense dictates that if deposit rates are high lending rates will be high and vice versa. Also included is the cost of administration – salaries, property rents, fleet costs etc. This may also include the cost of provisioning for bad loans. The more defaulters the higher the lending rates will be to cover the losses caused by the defaulters. And finally the bank has to factor in its own margin.

The Central Bank Rate is a figure announced by the Bank of Uganda, in our case, which reflects their view on, among other things, the prospects for inflation. The CBR rises when inflation is expected and falls when there is little risk of inflation ahead.

The banks use it to benchmark their lending rates, pricing them a few points above this key policy rate.

It has been argued that banks don’t have to price their rates above the CBR if they can still make money. The disincentive against this being a reluctance to live money on the table, a practice shareholders – mostly foreign, would frown upon.

One can expect with the law in place in Kenya bankers are going to have to re-examine their pricing models.

"A trade-off is inevitable. There are many possibilities.  Either they are going to forgo some margin or slap on more transaction costs to bridge the gap or tighten their risk controls – read lend less to the public or slash their costs, especially lower labour numbers, shut branches and optimise the use of technology....

Of course it is near impossible to sympathise with the banks. They have been profitable year in, year out, repatriating most of their profits and generally doing the bare minimum in advancing the national development agenda or distributing the love locally.

On the flip side the government is treading on very slippery ground. They say what is popular is not always right and what is right is not always popular.

The problem of trying to short circuit the market is that distortions are introduced, which affect the smooth running of the economy. Those distortions come with a cost which will have to be paid for eventually and often times after the political actors who introduced the distortion have moved on.

"Imagine a situation where the economic realities dictate that an increase in lending rates is necessary but the central bank for reasons of its own – bureaucratic inertia for instance, does not move to raise the CBR what will happen?...

The banks will stop lending, diverting funds to other activities like currency trading and wait either for the central bank to move or for economic conditions to revert to where it makes sense to lend at the lawful rate. In the meantime there will be loss of economic activity.

It is true that the market while it is the best mechanism we have for growing wealth, it is a terrible distributor of the same wealth. The distributor of wealth is government, which provides physical and social infrastructure needed to raise the general welfare of the population after taxing the market players’ surplus.

In our countries, Kenya too, government borrowing has given the banks the excuse to keep lending rates high. Why if the government is borrowing at double digit rates should the banks not follow suit? 

After all government is the “safest” borrower.

"By passing the bill the Kenya government is abdicating its responsibility for the high lending rates and playing to the gallery with this political action....

The history of these political interventions has shown that while offering temporary relief, they eventually come back to bite you. 

TAX ALL LAND TO PREVENT ENCROACHERS

This week top clergymen form the Church of Uganda were nearly lynched by an irate mob while on a tour of land the church owns that has been allegedly encroached by hundreds of residents.

Soon after the harrowing incident, the church announced plans to lease out their land about 80 square kilometers dotted all over the country as way to prevent encroachment.

If ever there was a sign that things were getting out of hand it had to be this one. That residents can attack men of the cloth, pelt them with stones and threaten to send them to a fiery death, what more can be said?

"We take land for granted in Uganda because there is actually too much of it lying around. Believe it or not there is no land pressure in Uganda. Apart from the aforementioned unutilised land evidence can also be seen in how we build – mostly bungalows and how there is always idle land for encroachers to settle on....

It is a moot point but how a people handle land will determine their level of development. Because land is where all wealth is derived from. More directly it is where we grow our food, where we build our homes. Indirectly assets like shares are derived from companies, which seat on land to operate.

To the extent that your land property rights are not well defined is the extent to which you can or cannot extract value from the land.

Think of a person occupying land without a title. He will not build a permanent abode on it knowing that the rightful owner can come a long anytime and repossess. He will not cause developments like roads, water and power networks because his ownership is unsure. That means the value of the land is not rising, in fact it is depreciating since the illegal tenants are an encumbrance on the land.

In the event that the illegal tenant is foolhardy enough to invest heavily on the land, attempts to dispossess him will inevitably turn bloody as he has no recourse to the law to defend his “right” to the land.

We have somehow been blundering around with our unclear land situation for a while, but day by day issues are coming to a head as land pressures mount.

"The move by the Church of Uganda to lease out their land is confirmation of what I have always argued. That to put our land to productive use the landowners need to be compelled to do so. Church of Uganda has been compelled by the threat of encroachers to release the land to more productive entities, but I argue all land should be taxed – farm, residential, commercial and industrial...

As it is now landowners are content to live their land unproductive, even in the city center, as they raise funds to develop it. In the process denying people work and the society the benefit of the products or services that would be generated if the land was activated.

Tax all land so that the owners will scratch their heads to be more productive and pay off the tax or failing to do so lease the land to more productive agents – as the Church of Uganda is doing now.

Uganda is a big coffee and tea growing nation because the colonialists compelled the farmer, using the poll and hut taxes, to grow coffee. Our forefathers did not grow coffee out of some great consensual vision but by compulsion.

"But to tax the land we need to invest in identifying and registering all the land in the country. And we need to brace ourselves for the fight from landowners, whose honeymoon will come to a crashing end and those people – read squatters, who are benefitting from the current ambiguous state of affairs...

But the tax will benefit everyone concerned.

The land owner will make more income whether he puts it to use or leases it out. Tenant will have more secure tenure. The government will see an immediate spike in revenue collections. And the economy as a whole will benefit from greater productivity.

FREE PUBLIC INTERNET IS LONG OVER DUE

It seems like another lifetime ago.

In my initial days as a Reuters correspondent I had to file stories to our Nairobi office via fax machine (who remembers what that is?) On week days I would do this from the general post office, but on the weekend a company, Starcom, had bureaus in town from which I could send my stories.

So I would either type out the story or write it long hand, go to one or the other to fax my story. And when I was done I would wait by a phone there for a call in which Nairobi would confirm receipt of the story. The confirmation notification was not often enough. And if service was not good that day I would literally read the story down the line.

By the time I left Reuters seven years later I had a lap top and a modem, which I could jack into a telephone port and send stories down the line. Our phones were still the 2G variety so there was no internet. I might have texted a story to Nairobi during my time. This was before the dongle era – which has come and gone.

But even with the limited capability my productivity, judging by story output, was several fold higher than my early days. Other factors like experience played into this but the improvements in technology were key.

So last week when the government announced that there will soon be free public internet in Kampala, initially confined to certain hotspots but, which it can be expected with time will be rolled out to the whole city, I could immediately appreciate the benefits that will come with it for the general population. The free service will be from 6 pm to 6 am.

"A person, people or country is as rich as how accessible information is to the people. A qualification would then be that wealth comes to the extent that this information is put to use....

Put even more simply you are richer or poorer than the next person by virtue of what you know or don’t know.

Given the odds that only a small percentage of the population will utilise this information effectively, society should be better off having vast amounts of information available, so the small percentage can lift themselves up and hopefully carry everyone else along.

The World Economic Forum estimates that a 10 percent increase in broadband penetration leads to a 1.4 percent increase in GDP and that a doubling of mobile data can lead to 0.5 percent increase in per capita GDP. They say most of this comes from e-commerce and online advertising, it also comes from the savings that come with not making unnecessary movement or fewer phone calls or more efficient decision making.

It is preaching to the converted to enumerate the benefits that have come with greater connectivity, but we need to do much much more.

In western economies data bases are integrated so all my records – birth dates, parentage, career path etc are linked, this alone does away with a lot of bureaucratic red tape needed to open a bank account or travel or even shop.

With improvements in communications technologies payments too have been made much faster and credit more accessible.

"In his seminal book the “Origins of Wealth “, author Eric Beinhocker  deconstructed the concept of the wealth, going back to first principles before revealing that the source of all wealth is knowledge. The people who are more efficient in generating, storing, transmitting and analysing knowledge will be the wealthiest....

That is why to try and catch up to the west’s level of development is a pipe dream without tackling the basis of that wealth – communication systems, be they the traditional road, rail and air to the more current ICT networks.

While we are moving, there is evidence there is a narrowing of the digital divide in terms of devices used between the developed and underdeveloped world, the divide is widening, since the west is not standing still in not only consuming more bandwith but in finding ever newer applications for the information while we are behind the curve on the uptake of the latest technologies.

It is good though that government is beginning to put ICT nearer the front of its thinking on where this country is going and what will be the key drivers. Although I remember a presentation b y a UNDP consultant around the beginning of this century which identified ICT development as one of seven competitive advantages this country can develop. But then again government works in mysterious ways.

"An embracing of ICT can bring quantum leaps in efficiency and productivity in every avenue of life you apply it to. Given the need for urgency in raising the productivity of the economy, it is a moot point that ICT issues need to be taken more seriously than we have been doing so far....

Personally I would rather have government subsidise the private sector to perform the service, just so we benefit from private sector efficiency, but the government initiative is a good start and may very well open the door for private players to take it over and run with it.

OUR ACTIONS, NOT CONSTITUTION UPHOLD THE RULE OF LAW

In recent weeks the police and the judiciary have found themselves in a near death clench as each tries to assert its authority.

In one incident it is alleged the police is shielding one of their own, former Central Police Station commander Aaron Baguma from prosecution for his alleged role in the torture and eventual murder of businesswoman Dona Katushabe last year.

The police this week said Baguma would appear in court but this is only after Buganda Road Chief Magistrate issued criminal summons for him to appear before his court.

As if that is not enough, the Inspector General of Police Kale Kayihura is involved in a case where he along with several other police officers are being prosecuted by private lawyers for their role in the beating of members of the public, during the return home of opposition leader Kizza Besigye last month.

Besigye had been detained in prison on various charges since May and was released on bail in July.

On the day, last week, that Kayihura was supposed to appear before the Makindye courts, mobs in support of him disrupted proceedings.

The High Court ruled on Wednesday that the Director of Public Prosecution (DPP) should take over the case from the private lawyers.

"The happenings have larger implications for the nation and speak directly to the two principles, that no one is above the law and the separation of powers of government...

From a lay man’s perspective, for this country or any country to work there has to be an impartial adherence to laws on which the citizens have agreed and are willing to subject themselves to. The only way this will happen is if there is universal observance of the law.

A steep slippery slope is begun if discretion is seen to be shown to one group or another in regard to who follows the rules or not.

The police who operate under the cloak of the law, to enforce the very law should appreciate this more than anyone else. Without a law their legitimacy is called into question.

To the general public a perceived favouritism or breakdown in enforcement of the law can lead to mobs taking the law into their own hands leading to anarchy.

The recent events in the US serve as a good illustration of what happens when the police lose their legitimacy in the eyes of the public they serve.

This year 676 people have been killed by the police in the US according to a tally kept by The Guardian website. The backlash has been that more than 60 police officers have been killed during the same duration.

This is a situation that is not only unsustainable but is in danger of spiralling badly out of control.

That a country with more robust institutions as the US can be on the perceived brink of disaster should be a pointer for us here in Uganda.

Our constitution, which forms the basis of all our laws is barely 20 years old and has already suffered some stern tests. Which is as it should be, because its potential will not be fulfilled unless it’s tested.

"That being said it is not the constitution that is the guarantor of peace, but more our inherent good will. There are not enough law enforcement agents to peer around every corner of our lives to ensure we are towing the line. We are a peaceful society because we choose to observe the law. That however is not a permanent situation, especially when the new normal slides towards lawlessness...

In school they told us that the school rules are made for the “bad” kids, as the “good” kids don’t need to refer to them since they can tell good from bad behaviour.

The overwhelming consensus should be in that direction.

Good behaviour, with the law as a pointer, should be observed by everybody, especially those we look to for example.

POGBA AND THE QUESTION, WHAT IS THE VALUE OF YOUR LABOUR?

Last week the announcement was finally made that French soccer player Paul Pogba was rejoining Manchester United for a record $150m (sh525b) from Italian club Juventus.

Pogba, whose father went to France from Guinea almost fifty years ago, will earn £290,000 (sh1.3b) a week at Old Trafford. Pogba, 23, now the most expensive player in the world, left Manchester United a few years ago under a cloud after then manager Sir Alex Ferguson denied him enough playing time in his superbly gifted team. They sold him to the Italian side for $1.5m!

Old news!

But this sliver of news from last week – it was all about the Olympics, asks the fundamental question how much is a person worth or more precisely how much is a person’s labor worth?

"Off the top of my head there are two determinants of how much a person’s labour is worth, how skilled that person is in whatever he does and the size of the economy that person is operating in....

The market will play for the value it thinks it can extract from you. So a major challenge for anyone looking for a higher paycheck is to increase the value – real and perceived that the market sees in you.

The real value comes with increased knowledge, which may or may not come from a formal education and increase experience, which can only come with time applied in exercising your skill.

"The 10,000-hour rule popularised by Malcom Gladwell in his book “Outliers” and again in the book “Talent is overrated” by Geoff Colvile speaks to this idea of how to increase one’s value. The books which reported on research done on classical musicians, showed that to attain world class standards at whatever endeavour, one has to have practised for 10,000 hours. Broken down this comes to about four hours a day, five days a week for ten years of deliberate practice....

But that only allows you a seat on the high table. If we are to log Pogba’s footballing career from the time he started kicking a ball at his home on the outskirts of Paris as a four year old to the present, he probably has been playing football for at least twice as long.

So what is it that you do? Have you done your 10,000 hours?

But doing your time is not enough. Because you might be the most skilled person in your field but the market does not recognise or appreciate your mastery.

One of the best things that happened to Pogba was that his father moved to France from the small west African country of Guinea. With this single stroke he improved his son’s prospects exponentially.

There is no way a talented Pogba would have been paid full value for his skill in a country of 11.6 million people with a per capita GDP of $558. If you are world class you have to expose yourself to  larger more lucrative  markets to be fully appreciated.

Thankfully now with the internet, marketing oneself globally is not impossible, and it’s safe to say if you are world class and put yourself out on the internet you will be discovered.

But It may happen too that you have all the above in place but the market is unwilling to pay you top dollar. Either because you are the wrong skin colour for the target market or you are female or just have bad handlers, then an accumulation of 10,000 hours learning to negotiate may come in handy.

"The truth is though, that if you have served your 10,000 hours in disciplined practice you will be hard to ignore...

In the 1990s Majid Musisi was discovered and played a few seasons for French side Le Havre, interestingly a former team of Pogba too. It helped of course that he along with SC Villa had featured in continental tournament finals two years in a row, but anyone who saw him play knew Uganda or even East Africa was too small for his immense talent. Ibrahim Sekajja has followed suit and Stephen Kiprotich too. 

There probably are a few hundred Ugandan professionals around the world going toe to toe with the best in their fields. That’s another thing, when you are world class you spend little time trying to impress villagers.

The bottom line clearly is one has to put in the time and in the case of Uganda that may be even that much harder, because people around you are “excelling” on less than a few hundred hours so why bother?

MOBILE MONEY BANKING HERALDS A REVOLUTION

When I left university getting a bank account on one of the high street banks was out of the question as they had prohibitive requirements. To keep an account one had to maintain a minimum balance of sh100,000, this was one of those unfriendly requirements.

In addition banks remained open for a four hour window, between 9 am and 1 pm, all the branches were on Kampala road and there were no ATM machines. Then Greenland Bank came along scrapped the minimum balance option, operated until 7 pm in the night and opened on weekends.

In response other banks have become more flexible. Branches were opened in unthinkable streets and towns. Opening hours have been extended to all day. And believe it or not now every bank has a product that does not call for minimum balances.

A lot of these changes have come from increased competition but advances in technology have played a crucial role.

This week mobile phone company MTN and Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA) announced the introduction of a mobile phone banking service MoKash, the precussor of a revolution in financial services in the country.

With the service mobile money members can now get interest on the monies they hold on their accounts and in addition can get loans of up one million shillings depending on how much they have saved and how much they utilise the MTN services.

Kenya and Tanzania have already been ahead of us on this development and progress there is an indication of what we can expect.

In Kenya the Mshwari service, which was launched four years ago now boasts of more than 15 million clients, with an additional 12,000 signing on per day. The total deposits on the service amounted to $81m (sh250b) as of the end of March.

"In Uganda already 83,000 accounts have been opened this week, it is projected that sh21b in deposits will have been received by this time next year and that  four in every ten mobile money account users will be signed on during the same time...

Essentially that in three years there will be as many people in the service as the five million bank account holders there are today.

For the general economy and even the improvements in the welfare of individual households this number or development will be very significant.

The major challenge for development in Uganda is that too little of the money in circulation is in the formal banking system. This is a problem because money in your pocket is actually reducing in value with time, but beyond that it cannot be used by people with a genuine need for it.

In Uganda under 30 percent of money in circulation is in the formal financial sector whereas in more developed economies it is the exact opposite. One of the biggest benefits of this is the low lending rates they enjoy and the myriad of products the banks have because banks make money by lending. 

Going by the law of supply and demand the money they have seating in their vaults the cheaper it is to lend out.

With the use of technology we are now beginning to rope in this little monies that have been going unutilised. According to official figures about sh30trillion was transacted across all mobile money platforms in Uganda last year. A figure which jumped from sh18trillion in the previous year.

This money was not earning interest for its owners nor could they borrow against it.

"With this single stroke access to financial services – savings, loans, insurance and many others will be only a phone click away from the most down trodden of our numbers – the new service allows for deposits of as little as sh50 and loans of sh3000...

With time the service will not be the sole preserve of MTN and CBA bank, which is a good thing as competition can only improve the sector, the final beneficiary will be the masses.

For the general economy these huge untapped resources will inevitably have a seismic effect in the industry and for the individuals it will open a whole new world of possibilities.

BAILOUT DEBATE, ANOTHER CROSSROADS FOR THE ECONOMY?

The current debate on the bailout of private local companies signals a cross road in the management of the economy, which will have far reaching repercussions into the future, market players and observers say.

A few weeks ago a list of 65 companies and individuals allegedly seeking financial help from the government was published. The entities on the list argued that government policy and regional instability, none of which they had any influence over, had conspired to stress their business and they faced the real danger of collapse if government did not step in.

With memories of the most recent high profile bailout of businessman Hassan Basajjabala fresh in the public’s mind, the reaction to the recent development was loud, angry and averse to any help being extended to the businessmen.

In 2011 a parliamentary investigation heard that Basajabala was compensated sh142b to hand back the three markets he had taken possession of – Balikudembe, Nakasero and Shauri Yako markets. Previously he had got a sh20b bailout from government to salvage his hides and skins export business.

"Beyond the public uproar the lines seems to have been drawn between the government technocrats who argue that a bailout is uncalled for, unless for industries that have a strategic importance to the economy. Local businessmen and those who believe government should support the growth of indigenous capital are lined up against this thinking, arguing that they create jobs, pay taxes and earn the country much needed hard currency and it would be a mistake to allow them go under...

In 2011 inflation peaked at 30 percent, a 20-year high, due to regional food shortages, a falling shillings and an increase in money supply due to the just concluded general elections. The Bank of Uganda using its new Central Bank Rate signalled an increase in lending rates in the banking sector, which reduced private sector credit, loan defaults and subsequent collapse of scores of businesses.

Another round of lending rate hikes happened starting last year when the central bank again raised their key policy rate starting in April 2015. Because of the pre-emptive action – in April 2015 inflation was under three percent, inflation peaked at 7.6 percent and has fallen back to 5.1 percent in July.

The businessmen argue that the central bank’s anti-inflationary stance is central to why businesses are weighed down by unsustainable debt.

 “If you haven’t run a business, 28 percent is a nominal figure but if you are in business it’s a matter of life and death. It’s not a joking matter,” businessman Andrew Rugasira, said during the recent Joseph Mubiru Memorial Lecture hosted by the Bank of Uganda.

He said that the stressed businesses were symptom of wider structural issues in the economy and argued that monetary policy – the regulation of money supply, the central bank’s main mandate, on its own would not fix the problems of job creation, affordable credit and increasing production.

"The businessmen argue that to allow these businesses to collapse would be to set back the growth of a local capitalist class which has been growing for the last few decades and to affect the jobs they have created, the taxes they collect and other indirect and intangible benefits they bring to the economy...

“The young people look to us as people who through hard work are able to make it in this economy. If we go down they will see no hope in trying to do things the right way and turn to corruption,” said Kampala businessman William Kajoba, whose Hotel Sojovalo is under threat.

Kajoba, who started out as a spare parts dealer but has now branched out into commodities trading and real estate, said they are not even asking for free money.

“Let government talk to the banks to ease their conditions, to extend repayments for instance or government takes over the loans use our properties as collateral and we pay them off. We don’t want charity, “ he said in a recent interview.

Ashie Mukungu, who worked previously as an economist at the African Development Bank is squarely in Kajoba and his contemporary’s corner. However he argues that to narrow the debate down to the bail out of private businessmen is to miss the bigger picture.

“I don’t know where this bail out word came from. There is a general sluggishness in the economy that needs to be addressed and government has the power to address this. Let us not lose focus,” said Mukungu, who claims authorship of the “bailout” list.

He recommends that government pay off the huge domestic arrears, about sh1.3trillion, owed to the business community, recapitalise Uganda Development Bank (UDB) to open the option of long term money, inject some liquidity into the economy by buying back some of the government paper and create an agency to takeover distressed debt from the bank and restructure it.

But economic managers remain unimpressed and maintain that there is no real threat to the general economy.

“The evidence that high bank lending rates have caused distress among private sector companies is weak, for two reasons (i) the bank lending rates since the BOU began raising its policy interest rate in April 2015 has been relatively modest (ii) the non-performing loans of commercial banks are not currently out of line with historical trends, ” according to an internal official document the Business Vision has seen....

According to the research on which the document was based high interest rate was the last factor in accounting for bad loans in the banking industry. But at the top of the list was delayed government payments, cost overruns, diversion of funds and political instability in south Sudan were among other factors – in order of importance that accounted for bad loans in the industry.

In fact the research shows that only 0.3 percent of the bad loans above sh500m are due to higher interest rates. While six in every ten shillings of bad loans was due to delayed government spending, cost overruns or diversion of funds to issues other than the funds’ intended purpose.

Going into the wider issue of what can be done to jump start the economy one official said the issue of providing economic stimulus does not arise in Uganda’s case.

“You stimulate the economy, essentially inject liquidity into the economy when there is no growth but we are growing at five percent a year so the justification is not there,” said one official at the center of the debate, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He however said a case can be made for stimulus for the agricultural sector and pointed to the 

Operation Wealth Creation as a good initiative in this direction if managed well.

The offset of government arrears is a good idea, he said, “But who really knows how much government arrears are? Finance (ministry) has asked for verified lists and they pay and the responsible ministries are failing to provide these.”

The general tightening of money conditions in the economy has to do with the tightening of government expenditure in recent years.

“Two things have happened you are seeing all these corruption cases in public service and prime minister’s office? Those holes are being plugged and It turns out they were responsible for a lot of the liquidity around. Secondly with government’s emphasis now on infrastructure development the recurrent expenditure has shrunk in relative terms, that is where a lot of the leakage was...

Finance ministry permanent secretary Keith Muhakanizi alluded to reduced corruption in government when he was before parliament last month. He said greater efficiencies in the accounting system was key to his new trend.

He acknowledged though that outside the managing monetary and fiscal policy there is case for government being more proactive in developing the private sector, without any policy reversals.

“We should not be stampeded into doing the popular thing at the expense of the right thing, which is maintaining macro-economic stability for everybody not just a select few. Anything else we do should be within that context” he said.

In 1992 the finance ministry as merged with the planning & economic ministry bringing greater discipline to government spending which up to that point was out of control with the result that inflation had burst past 200 percent a year.

This reorientation also signalled the shift towards a more market driven economy characterised by liberalisation of produce marketing, foreign exchange and the privatisation of state enterprises. The change came after six years of intense debate on how the economy should be managed after the NRM came to power in 1986.

Government technocrats argue that this is now another key turning point in the economy.

"The debate has come back almost full circle to one between more government intervention in the economy versus a continuation of the liberal economics of the last three decades that has accounted for the country’s prodigious growth figures during the period....

“Every economy has a right to determine its economic path,” says Rugasira. He argues for more deliberate and systematic intervention by the state as markets are currently constrained and cannot be sorted out by monetary policy alone.

“We need to reorient the economy towards export. Start with agriculture improve credit terms to the sector, expand extension services and expedite land reforms,” said Rugasira who exports processed coffee to Europe and the US under his Rwenzori Coffee brand.

The technocrats advise caution.

“There is renewed debate not restricted to Uganda about the role of the state in the economy with the people pointing to what the US and EU had to do to pull themselves out of the recent global financial crisis. But in prescribing we should look at the respective contexts, what works for them may not work for us and vice versa,” a senior finance official advised.

Warning too, that once we open the “pandora’s box” it will be very difficult to shut it back again and will very well determine how the economy is run from here onwards for better or for worse.

OF THE OLYMPICS AND WHITE ELEPHANTS

By the time you read this we will have been enthralled by a beautifully choreographed opening ceremony of the 2016 Rio Olympics. For the next three weeks we shall marvel at the feats of speed, strength and stamina of the young men and women who have endured blood, sweat and tears to perform on the world stage.

Unfortunately the Olympics – except for the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, have proven to be a black hole for state resources and when the final finishing tape has been broken it has been difficult to discern the benefits to the hosting economy’s  of the quadrennial event.

"This is sad but not surprising. These extravaganza’s characterised by dodgy procurements and cost overruns have been proven to be what the resident technocrats need to finish their palatial homes or pay tuition for their pampered offspring. The promise of an economic boost or elevated global status often don’t materialise for the former and for the latter amount to 15 minutes of fame and not much else...

In fact hosting the Olympics in 2004 was at the heart of Greece financial woes a decade or so later. 

Borrowing heavily to spruce up infrastructure for the centennial games, after the games the Greeks were stuck with massive stadia that had little economic value once the show rolled on. But the debt had to paid. Like other developing nations the Greeks favourite past time is tax evasion so they were soon in a bind and almost found themselves out of the European Union when they were almost submerged by their debt obligations a few years ago.

The Olympics are great entertainment and I like most, will be watching with bated breath as the athletes tear down the track or the gymnasts tumble up and down the mat or the swimmers cut through the water. But I will be suspending disbelief because I know after the party will come the hangover.

To be fair all these lovefests should be hosted only by nations that can afford the subsequent losses.

Brazil is already staggering under hard economic times. The Olympics and the soccer World Cup of two years ago do nothing to raise incomes, improve services or improve the general wellbeing.

While it is the seventh largest economy in the world, just behind the UK, it has third world income inequalities. A Brazil has a gini coefficient – a measure of income inequality, of 0.505 with a figure towards zero being ideal and one towards one being disastrous.

"The estimated $12b or $60 per Brazilian, that has been used to host the event would have been better spent improving social services and more economically beneficial infrastructure...

"The Olympics are a white elephant for poor countries. A white elephant like roads to nowhere or overinflated power dams or unsustainable state owned airlines. And like all white elephants they are often dimmed necessary to increase the surface area for corruption and serve as an ego trip for powerful people. Unfortunately they are paid for by hard earned taxes....

I love the Olympics but one cannot help feeling that such events, are a racket by global elite to divert resources into theirs and their cronies’ pockets to the detriment of the rest.

Things would be very different if the bills for these events were footed by the companies, who now are the major beneficiaries of these events. You would have leaner, less extravagant effects which would still provide the entertainment value we have become accustomed to with little negative effect on the general public.

If wishes were horses.

They say that when businessmen lock themselves in a room together you know they are conspiring against the consumer.

So while I cheer on these young athletes achievements I will have at the back of my mind that we are being had – especially the Brazilian tax payer, and there seems nothing we can do about it.

Pass me the popcorn

IS MUHANGA OUR MARIE ANTOINETTE?

Prior to the French Revolution, which begun in 1789, Queen Marie Antoinette when presented with the complaint that the peasantry was being racked by famine and had no bread to eat responded with a toss of her royal curls, I imagine, “Let them eat cake.”

With that statement she became the poster child of all that was wrong with the ruling elite of the day. How so out of touch they were with the plight of the everyday man.

There are doubts that she actually made that comment but it has stuck and for most of us we would rather not let the facts get in the way of a good story.

On Tuesday the honourable MP for Buryaha County Margaret Muhanga went before parliament to explain her role in the irregular sale of UBC land a few years ago. When she was asked how she raised the sh10b she put down to buy the 23 acres of land in Bugoobi, in 30 seconds of video footage that has gone viral, Muhanga’s eyes widened as if in disbelief that she could be asked such a question then, “I sold cows, goats and everything,” she answered.

This kicked off a firestorm on social media for the next 24 hours, with all and sundry rolling in the aisles more at the incredulity of the answer and her attitude towards a serious issue of obvious asset stripping of a public agency.

"It was not her finest hour. She may never live it down. This may even be, like Marie Antoinette, how she is remembered if public outcry against government poor service delivery and corruption, in the future, snowball into worse...

Muhanga’s transaction may very well be above board but it raises more questions than answers about the way our public affairs are conducted and the sensitivity of our public officials to the plight of the everyday man.

Right now the man on the street is grappling with issues of how to make his income – if he has one,  carry him through the month, expensive health and education services, because the public system is irreparably damaged and how to better himself generally given his training and the opportunities available in the economy. But at every turn he is coming up empty handed.

So when public officials are suspected or arraigned before the courts or parliament to answer to allegations of impropriety we explain the lack of credible answers as a sign of impunity – they never thought they would have to answer so they never got their story straight; we explain the obvious nonchalance as evidence that this was business as usual and suffer headaches when we try to wrap our minds around the sums involved.

Jokes aside the stability of nations depends on the equitable distribution of that country’s wealth.  

Disparities in income and wealth will always be there, and are even healthy in motivating hard work and innovation, but too much disparity is a recipe for social instability. The resentment of these disparities is even worse when there is a hint that some people are getting ahead for reasons other than diligent work.

We have said it many times, the challenge of this country is not that we do not have resources but that our resources are not being fully exploited and even when they are, are not being exploited for the benefit of the majority.

"How do you raise incomes and create wealth for the majority?..

You build the social and physical infrastructure that allows them to not only discover their full potential but maximise it for their own benefit. A good education and health system ensures that we develop better quality workers who can demand higher income from the market; we lay down good laws and regulations and enforce them objectively and transparently across the board, this ensures security of person and property the cornerstone of strong economy; we lay down the roads, railways, telecommunication networks to allow easier access to resource centers and markets, which allows the private individuals to thrive.

A handful of people can subvert this by for example diverting resources for their own personal gain and the ensuing dysfunctionality manifests itself as widening inequalities in the general society.

"Widening inequalities lead to hopelessness which quickly leads to desperation and eventually social disruption and instability. Think about it...

WILLIAM KAJOBA, IN THE EYE OF THE BAILOUT STORM

On an evening talk show early last week Kampala businessman William Kajoba came out strongly in favour of a bailout of local businessmen, who are struggling through the current economic hard times and are staggering under the weight of the growing debt load on their businesses.

A few weeks ago a list was published that listed a number of prominent businessmen who had approached government to assist their struggling businesses. The reports have caused a public uproar, with the loudest voices against any bailout of private businessmen.

Kajoba, who started off as spare parts dealer but has now ventured out into the commodities trade and is the proprietor of the Hotel Sojovalo, argues that many of the businesses are distressed out of no fault of the individual businessmen.

“I can speak for myself. I borrowed money, a seven year loan in 2010 at 16 percent but within a year because of the raising of the CBR (Central Bank Rate) my monthly payments to the bank doubled,” he remembers.

“Imagine you are supposed to be paying sh30m monthly in loan repayments and then suddenly you are asking for sh100m? You can’t survive.”

As a result Hotel Sojovalo is on the brink of going under the hammer.

"And for many businessmen they dug themselves deeper into the hole by accepting overdraft facilities to not only run their day-to-day operations but to go towards paying off existing loans...

“Using short term money to pay for long term loans. It made matters worse once the initial relief had passed, “ Kajoba at his Mengo office.

Kajoba while he has a ready answer for the critics of the bailout, he understands the public sentiment.

“Such noise is not only here but everywhere in the world when you mention bailout, people start jumping up and down,” he explains, throwing in the Luganda saying “Teri ayagaliza ya munne kuzaala ndusi”

He is riled by charges that the distressed businesses pushing for bailouts are poor businessmen, blowing their capital on high living.

“I am the one who started pushing for this but there are many, many businessmen large and small suffering. Many of whom have run successful enterprises for years. Are you saying we all don’t know what we are doing? All these years what have we been doing?,” he asked with a dismissive wave.

He puts the blame squarely at the Bank of Uganda’s feet.

“So you are preventing inflation but burying businessmen, where is the sense in that?”

Responding directly to the count that these businessmen have just been caught with their pants down after years of lavish living during the good times and when the hard times came they were exposed.

“No one complains when a person who earns sh50m a year buys a sh20m car, so if a business man earns a billion shillings a month what kind of car or house should he have?”

He acknowledges that what may have passed as business bailouts in the past may have been messed up.

“But when you are driving to Masaka and you hit the humps unknowingly on your way back aren’t you going to be more cautious?,” he asked. Let us not mix things up, he urges, this a real issue that demands a solution.

“This is a disaster. When a disaster happens you cannot say there is no money,” adding that he wants no doubt to be left that we are seating on a ticking time bomb.

"He makes the now well-worn argument that he employs 150 workers who may have a few more dependents down the line so if or other businesses go down they do not do so alone. He doesn’t understand why the virulent critics don’t factor this in their arguments...

“People are just shouting because they don’t like you they don’t have a real point,” charged a visibly agitated Kajoba.

So what should be the nature of the bailout?

“People think we want free money that’s why they are jumping up and down. But no. In my thinking government should impose on the banks to ease loan repayments but we keep our properties, after all they are the ones that will help us pay off the banks,” Kajoba said.

He suggested too that maybe the government can take over their loans with the properties held by government as collateral, maybe such an arrangement could happen through Uganda Development Bank with a grace period worked in to allow them reorganise.

“They will get paid. There is no free money. But something has to be done first to ease the current situation.”

BAILOUTS ARE OPTIONAL, ECONOMIC STIMULUS IS NOT

To bail or not to bail out our local businessmen is the story that has been burning the wires this last week.

"A clever communication trick slanted the narrative towards “bailouts”, was a message guaranteed to raise temperatures, with previous billion shilling bailouts to connected businessmen fresh in our minds. The public’s knee jerk reaction on the matter should not have come as a surprise...

The other night I was watching “The Godfather” – a must watch for any serious student of leadership and power.  In the film, derived from Mario Puzo’s classic novel of the same title, a rivalry between the Mafioso families is threatening to blow up and Michael Corleone, the godfather, is being urged by his nephew Vincent to take pre-emptive action against the other families.

“Never hate your enemies it affects your judgement,” Corleone tells his spirited charge.

The idea that a handful of fat cat businessmen will be getting “bailouts” from government is clouding judgement and diverting from the real issue, that there is a problem in the economy that needs to be addressed.

In fact the discussion should be shifted from talking about bailouts to one about stimulating the economy – which may or may not include bailing out businessmen or sections of the economy.

"The evidence is there for all to see. While the economy remains on a growth path it is not growing as fast as it should, which is around seven percent annually. The economy grew 4.6 percent in the last financial year and has not touched the magic number since the 2010/11 financial year when it came in at 9.7 percent, since then growth stayed stubbornly under five percent...

Many reasons have been advanced for this underperformance not least of all are the delay in oil production, the loss of South Sudan as a trading partner, the depreciating shilling and reductions in foreign direct investment of aid over the last five years or so.

At personal level this has seen slower rate of job creation, lowering of incomes in real terms leading to less demand for goods and hence business closures and back into the vicious cycle.

In short the economy needs a shot in the arm – a stimulus, to jump start it again.

Suggestions have been made, whose net effect would be to inject cash into the economy. Among these clearing of all domestic arrears owed by government to its suppliers. The auditor general says these amount to at least sh1.3 trillion. A capitalisation of the Uganda Development Bank by at least the promised sh500b to allow business men access much needed long term credit, a buyback of some of the sh8 trillion in government paper from the market. 

These measures and others aimed at a wider stimulation of the economy would have an effect on the general economy and not only a few businessmen.

However we cannot get away from the issue of compensations to businessmen who were not only affected by events in the South Sudan but also the Kenyan post-election violence and even the Burundi’s recent descent into chaos.

As it is now and related to South Sudan the list of claimants is being compiled and agreed upon. Once this is dome it is expected that a memorandum of understanding will be drawn up that shows what the Juba owes Ugandan businessmen. It is then suggested that Uganda takes up this obligation and pays our businessmen and South Sudan will owe the government.

We cant ignore too the issue of the mounting bank loans that our businessmen are staggering under. A suggestion to create an agency that would take these off the books of the banks and either work at recovering them or reconstructing these assets has been suggested. This is important because the bad debts seating on the banking industry’s books is eating into their capital, constraining them from lending more to the public.

Those are all short to medium term measure that would give some short term relief to the economy. 

"But we need to think harder how we can increase the general productivity in the economy over the long term. This will require a further lowering of the costs of doing business through improved infrastructure, policies and their implementation...

Arguably government has cut its own throat with the blunderous bailouts of yesteryear, but those mistakes should not stop us from doing what is necessary to jump our economy now.

In the meantime let us steer clear of hate because it is judging our judgement.