PRESCRIPTIONS FOR UGANDA'S NEXT 38 YEARS

Last week we commemorated 38 years of the National Resistance Movement (NRM).

There is a lot to be proud of. No less a figure than Singaporean former leader Lee Kuan Yew speaking in 1998 did not give Uganda a chance in 100 years to get back up on its feet. At the time the NRM was two years in power having inherited a country that was barely functional and an economy that had regressed to pre-1970 levels...

To add salt to injury there were insurgencies in the north and east, which were taking priority of the meagre national resources.

The rebellion mostly in the north, which lasted into this century, served as a lodestone on economic progress, as almost one in five of the country’s population was not producing or consuming meaningfully.

The end of the war on Ugandan soil from around 2002, meant northern Uganda could reenter the productive economy and the results have been telling.

Uganda’s per capita GDP has jumped almost four-fold to $934 at the end of 2022 according to the World Bank, from $241 in 2002. Interestingly per capita GDP fell back to 2002 levels from $253 in 1986.

One can argue that by 2002 a growth momentum had set in, from earlier reforms that liberalized the economy, but it is hard to discount the effect of the reentry into the economy of northern Uganda and West Nile.

However, an argument can be made that we have underperformed given the human capital we have, the natural endowments and the peace the rest of the nation has enjoyed.

That being as it is I would like to look to the next 38 years to see how we accelerate the development trajectory.

1.       Root out corruption

The recent Auditor General’s report reports a continued trend towards more and more waste in government. Its not that our officials are clumsy and letting valuable shillings disappear into thin air, more that they are keeping more and more of our tax shillings for themselves. This is affecting service delivery, concentrating resources in a few connected people’s hands and even worse, distorting markets by overinflating asset prices and underpricing genuine businessmen. Not only is this trend grinding the economy to a halt but also poses a serious threat to national stability and security.

2.       Leaner government

Relatedly we need to cut back on the cost of public administration, especially because the bloated public sector has increased the surface area for corruption with little attendant improvement in production. Leaner government would allow government to focus on what its supposed to do which is facilitate the private sector to produce and equitably distribute the ensuing growth. Leaner government also means government not succumbing to the temptation to go back into business...

3.       Greater emphasis on human capacity development

A few years ago an argument was made in the The Economist magazine that given a choice between human capital and infrastructure development, the smart money is on improving the quality of the population. The argument was that once the people are better educated and healthy they will find a way around the infrastructure deficits. However, if the quality of the people is wanting all the infrastructure in the world will count for little as they will not be able to exploit it to improve their living standards. School enrollement has to continue to rise but more importantly we need to reduce the drop out rate, about 1.4 million a year the last number I saw. We must increase access to quality health services. We must increase opportunities by improving the business environment to absorb all these quality Ugandans entering the job market.

4.       Continued infrastructure development

While we have made significant strides in infrastructure development – except rail transport, we are far behind what our ambitions require in road, energy and social infrastructure. Using roads as an example we have about 16 km of paved road per square km, which is well below what an average middle income country which is around 80 km per sq km. We have all seen in our various suburbs how much new economic activity is generated when a tarmac road is laid. The same deficiencies are seen in everything from electricity generation and consumption, to health center and school facilities to housing. Infrastructure is what unlocks the latent economy.

Invest in agriculture extension 

A recent study showed that for sub-Saharna africa to make its biggest gains in agriculture investing in agricultural extension services and irrigation are your best bet. we have been seating on our laurels for too long, to thepoint that our agriculture is still using means of pre-agricultural revolution times. Extension workers who will improve the productivity of our small holder farmers is critical. It is a scandal that while agriculture provides the livelihood of seven in 10 Ugandans it acocunts for less than 30 percent of GDP and has not enjoyed double digit growth in any one year in the last 40 years, hence the prevalence of poverty in Uganda.

 

5.        Export led growth

And finally, we need to focus on producing for export rather than import substitution. As the Asian tigers showed focusing on export led growth improves the quality of products and creates more jobs. Import substitution benefits a few connected people, does not improve quality standards and generally lowers livings standards by condemning the population to endure substandard goods. The evidence is all around us the export targeted Lato has better quality products, in adequate quantities and changing the socio-economic status of farmers in Ntungamo than their local competitors who are content to serve the Ugandan market.

 

This is by no means a comprehensive nor original list, the challenge for the next 38 years is the execution of these ideas. Hopefully we will look back in 38 years and we would have far exceeded our expectations.

FOR GOD AND MY COUNTRY!

 

A RETURN TO SAPS IS A REAL POSSIBILITY

In his latest report the Audit General drew a painful picture of how our domestic arrears are doubling every five years with no effective action to slow down this accumulation or pay them off.

The Auditor General John Muwanga in his report of the year that ended in June 2023 said domestic arrears continued to mount by 16 percent annually, inexplicably and illegally.

“Some accounting offices are concealing domestic arrears and paying for arrears which previously were not disclosed nor budgeted for,” Muwanga reported.

“In other instances, the arrears disclosed are not properly supported by evidence of goods or a service. I further observed that some entities have entered in to multi-year commitments without parliamentary approval.”

In simple English officers are paying for ghost products and services, hiding legitimate claims on government while paying the fictitious ones and committing government to debts without proper approvals.

The net effect of this, is that what government owes to suppliers has nearly tripled to sh10.5trillion in 2022/23 from sh3.335 trillion in 2018/19, with no corresponding growth in revenues. During the same period URA collections grew by just over 50 percent to sh25.2trillion from sh16.6trillion. Just by that simple calculation it is inconceivable that government will ever fully pay these domestic arrears.

The worst offenders are Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) who in the last year’s domestic arrears jumped almost tenfold, followed by the works ministry, prisons and the finance ministry. That is ironic because the finance ministry is supposed to be overseeing and implementing the discipline around accumulating domestic arrears.

This is a scary situation than is being acknowledged by the government.

So I have a friend who does business with government. They owe him a few billion shillings for work that has been done and certified. His business is on its knees because between government not paying him, URA is baying for his blood, as is his bank. To survive he has been forced to regress into informality. He has adopted two sets of books, cut back on his official payroll and basically insists on being paid in cash and not through the formal financial system.

It does not take a rocket scientist to see what will happen if his methods are replicated across hundreds or even thousands of companies.

URA will huff and puff but will find little love in the private sector. That is not a threat but a promise.

It is so bad, that many banks are refusing to discount government invoices. Previously if a business man won a deal he could take an invoice he had made to government and borrow against it in the bank. Now banks don’t want to touch that “counterfeit” paper with a ten-foot pole. Businesses are slowly grinding to a halt.

This is an unsustainable situation. Our taxes come from private companies and individuals. With businesses struggling they will close down altogether costing jobs in the companies and among its suppliers.

What the Auditor General was describing up there was corruption in very many words. Despite a policy and new blood in the ministry the interest groups around this racket are so firmly entrenched they can openly defy Ramathan Goobi’s best efforts to bring some sanity to the system. Isn’t it just a matter of time before he throws up his hands in defeat or joins them anyway?

"There is even a scarier scenario.  That these interest groups that are a law unto themselves, have actually captured the state...

Ebola is particularly dangerous parasite because it feeds off the host and when they die abandon them for a new host. When it is feeding off the host it has no thought of coexistence, it just feeds off the host in disregard of the hosts continued life.

That is what the Auditor General is reporting is happening in the Uganda government. That the corrupt are feeding off the state without regard for whether it will continue to exist. In fact when every one else is tightening their belts, these leeches are accelerating their eating and to hell with everything.

This cannot end well, especially if good people decide to join in the plunder.

While it may sound drastic you just have to look across the border to Kenya to see what happens when a rapacious clique takes over the state and bend it to their own over the national intersts. For all intents and purposes, they are going back to Structral Adjustment Programme (SAP) -- raising taxes, cutting subsidies and privatizing public enterprises to qualify for much needed cash.

All this because revenue inflows have long been surpassed by government expenditure. If corruption was tackled decisively you would be shocked how dramatically government expenses would collapse.

And this is not just macroeconomics. As a proxy of economic activity mobile money transactions in Kenya last year for the first time in 17 years. The small man is feeling the pain in a very real way.

God forbid that we find ourselves back in SAPs because of our indiscipline. But how improbable is that given what we know?

THE ATIAK SUGAR DEAL LEAVES A BITTER TASTE IN THE MOUTH

We all know someone like this. You come together as group to contribute to a business venture, but they despite their initial enthusiasm for the project, are reluctant to contribute to the endevour. The rest of you get it off the ground with the little you have managed to put together and what in patient hope for the coming of their contribution.

It doesn’t come and there is always an excuse why. It is beginning to get on your nerves because the defaulting member is benefitting from the project disproportionately to his contribution. You could have let them freeload – after all we are all friends, but the sheer injustice of the situation is beginning to poison the friendship. And the freeloader seems totally unbothered by the situation he has put you people in, oblivious to the risk of jeopardizing the project all together.

Last week the Auditor General released his report for the year that ended in June2023. Wading through the inane stuff that included air supply in local governments, our ballooning public debt, ghost works in government I happened upon a report about our interest in Atiak Sugar Company.

"If lack of capital is a reason for most business failures in Uganda there is no way, absolutely no way, Atiak Sugar Company will collapse...

The project is located in Amuru district, northern Uganda and has the potential to process 1650 tonnes of cane daily for a production of 66,000 tonnes of sugar annually on the 7,900-acre plantation.

 They have struggled to get off the ground, with production being pushed back from 2016 before limited production begun in 2020, but had to be shut down in 2022 for lack of cane to run the plant following a burning of 3000 acres of their fields. Observers think it won’t be until 2025 when they resume operations.

Industry players in private are not surprised by the teething problems the project is suffering as the promoters thought they would circumvent certain key processes in setting up an operation as they had envisaged.

For a project of this magnitude to take almost a decade after its initial commencement to take off is mind boggling.

But maybe not.

Over the last six years government has pumped sh459b into the project in equity and loans through Uganda Development Corporation (UDC). But also an additional sh69b has been received from NAADS (National Agricultural Advisory Services) for such things as slashing, weeding and planting.

But to break it down even further these monies at sh14m a classroom, build about 40,000 classrooms or almost 6,000 primary schools. This would  put a dent in our horrific number of more than 1.4 million kids dropping out of school annually....

These funds, which are more than were allocated to the manufacturing and tourism sector – sh491b, in the last budget, is five times more than government’s commitment to the project. Government is a 40 percent shareholder in the project for which they were supposed to contribute sh80b.

But it gets better.

John Muwanga the Auditor General reported on government’s partners in the project, Horyal Investment Holding Company (HIHC), “There was no evidence to confirm that the private shareholders had provided their capital contribution to the company.”

All I could say was, Wow!

But not only has government given HIHC a blank check to set up this financial black hole, but also was not adequately represented on the board. Government has only one instead of two board members. This kind of negligence is criminal.

To simplify several of us got together raised money and then handed over the money to the one among us who has not contributed to the business and we are not bothered what he is doing.

Where is the incentive for Atiak to work?  The promoters are already being paid hand over fist before the project starts, why suffer with staffing and operations, when we can just be paid for twiddling our thumbs?

I would love to be wrong but it is not rocket science to see what is going to happen.

"The promoters will throw their hands up in the air in defeat, walk away, government will take over the project to make a show of trying to recoup their investment and eventually give up as well, let the bush grow back and let the machines rust away....

It goes without saying that this country cannot afford this kind of waste on such an industrial scale.

Government actions in this project make one wonder whether they really wanted the project to succeed. If they really wanted it to succeed, the obvious thing to do would be to contract someone who has experience in this business, pay them probably a tenth of what they have already shoveled into this doomed project and just maybe we would have sugar from northern Uganda within a finite time.

And now its on to the next scandal.

 

 

 

THE USE, UGANDA’S OPEN SECRET

If you are to get a quick idea of a person’s financial health, look at how they spend their money.

There are only two ways to spend your money, either you consume/eat it or you invest it. Consumption needs no definition, but investing means committing money with the hope of a return in the future. The returns on investment can come as cash-on-cash returns – you earn cash from the investment or as capital gains – you invest in something and its price rises after you have invested.

Going by this, your financial health is dictated by the balance of how you spend your money. If you consume more than you invest you are not very healthy financially and the opposite is true. Essentially

your financial health is determined by how much of how much you earn you keep.

Shifting the balance is a process done over time and often begins with a shift in mindset, unless you are forced to save like many workers do with the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) in Uganda.

But many of us are at loss on what to invest in. As a result of this confusion, we follow the bandwagon into farming, real estate or business. For those who can not muster the monies to go into the above, they fall back on eating their kamoney, until they get a “big deal”.

Is it any wonder that corruption is in our DNA?  In our endevour to hasten the big deal we end up dipping our fingers in the till.

For the everyday man there is a way to sock away small sums, which over time can grow into huge investments.

The answer is the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE).

At the USE for as little as sh10,000 – National Insurance Corporation (NIC) shares are selling for sh6.5, one can begin on their investment journey, while they wait for the big deal.

They say the best time to start investing was 20 years ago and the next best time is now...

But don’t take my word for it.

If you invested sh10,000 in each of the 11 locally listed shares on 2 January last year, by year end you would have registered a return of sh4,400 according to share monitoring firm Simply Wallstreet. This was in dividends – a share of company profits,  and share price increases (capital gains).

While that may not be enough to whet your appetite, the devil is in the detail.

Of the 11 companies listed on the USE, all but three showed a positive return last year.

Of the eight winners, five of them showed double digit returns, with the lowest being Bank of Baroda at about 19 percent by the end of November and the highest being Stanbic Bank at about 73 percent, according to investment bankers Crested Capital. And among these winners, three of them their dividends accounted for between 25 and 50 percent of the gains.

Interestingly for two counters – MTN and Uganda Clays despite a slide in prices, the dividend payouts more than compensated for that to show a positive total return at year end.

Basically, that you can still win on the exchange even if the share prices dip, if the company is fundamentally sound and can afford a dividend payout...

In an ideal world if a company is doing well – revenues, profits and net asset value are growing, the share prices should follow suit. It doesn’t always work that way especially on the USE where trading is very thin – up to November turnover was only sh61b, with one counter Umeme accounting for almost half of this volume.

Trading is thin because most shares are held by institutional investors, who often buy to hold rather than trade. As a result price movements across the market are subdued.

So, while you can get some credible dividend yields – how much dividend you get compared to what you paid, the history of the USE is that it is rather sleepy in terms of price movements.

But there in lies a huge opportunity for long term players. If company profitability continues to grow while prices are indifferent, it means the shares are becoming increasingly good value for money.

Imagine you bought your house at sh100m ten years ago and were initially charging one million shillings a month in rent but ten years later rent has doubled to sh2m, the value of your house has gone up, at least twice, beyond the initial sh100m you bought it at. Even if no one knows until you decide to sell.

Before telecom company Airtel started trading at the end of the year, while profitability of the listed companies was up 24 percent, prices on average had only moved up  6 percent. Meaning prices had some way to catch up to earnings.

It is a no brainer. As long as companies’ earnings continue to outstrip price movements, it’s a mathematical certainty that somewhere down the line prices will begin to rise to reflect this reality. Next week? Next month? Nest year? Who knows but it will.

Historically the best returns for your money come from owning businesses. The USE is offering pieces of some of the best run companies in Uganda and the region – there are seven Kenyan companies selling shares on the USE, for a few shillings.

And we have not even talked about the treasury bonds and bills trading on the exchange with double digit returns.

So why isn’t the above not widely known? Wealth is silent.

KENYA’S CAUTIONARY TALE FOR UGANDA

My driver Stephen reflected the attitude of many Kenyans to the current rise in the cost of living in our eastern neighbour. He thought it had long gotten out of hand and could cause instability in the region’s biggest economy.

"In 2023 since the ascendance to the top job by President William Ruto, Kenyans have seen their cost of living soaring with the removal of fuel subsidies, increases in consumption taxes and fall of the Kenyan shilling to historical lows....

The Kenya shilling crossed the sh150 mark against the US dollar in October and peaked at kShs156 before Christmas.

But these are just the symptoms of even more fundamental weakness in the economy.

For example, that the export receipts were down in the 12 months up to October despite the shilling depreciating 19 percent during the period. A weaker shilling should see higher export earnings in Kenya shillings even if they just exported the same amount of goods as a comparable period in the past. The fact that export earnings suggests that the economies productivity is also falling.

It could not have come at a worse time. Next year the $2b Eurobond principle comes due at the end of June and they need all the hard currency they can lay their hands on.

So, it makes sense that the government is scrambling every which way it can to raise these funds, including overtures to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ease the pain.

The weakening shilling of course not helping matters as the shillings weakening added Ksh810b (sh19trillion) in interest payments in the year to October according to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK).

How did they come to this? An ambitious infrastructure expansion first during the Mwai Kibaki presidency, which paved way for a questionable expansion drive during the time of Uhuru Kenyatta era, mostly funded by debt, is coming back to bite.

There are questions whether the $2b Eurobond, contracted in 2014, was actually used for its intended purpose, with reports that the proceeds found their way into private pockets.

Few can argue with paying for infrastructure development with debt. Infrastructure should ease doing business in an economy, leading to more taxes making it affordable to pay off the debt. But if the infrastructure developed does not come with an attendant increase in economic activity, then trouble begins.

The ambitious Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) which cost $3.6b and whose loan grace period expired in 2021 is putting great strain on the Kenya treasury, especially since revenues from the SGR operations have not yet caught up with costs.

Industry watchers have said the only way the project can have a chance of viability is if it is linked to Kampala and its rich hinterland. That has not happened as the project is in limbo, having stopped in Naivasha.

There are other things that are conspiring to stress the Kenyan economy – corruption being at the top, and now the bitter pill of economic restructuring has become inevitable.

"We were there in the 1980s and 1990s when revenues were anemic and loans were falling due left right and center. Increased taxes and liberalization of the economy helped us pull out, but the pain still traumatizes a generation....

We hear similar noises in Kenya from what was here then, with the arm chair commentators complaining that the economic moves the government is taking – raising taxes and restructuring the economy, were a sell out to the west.

The net sum of this contrary view, is that the Kenya government should continue with business as usual and somehow things will sort themselves out.

This kicking the tin down the road prescription was tried by the Uhuru government and means the pain of restructuring will be that more painful.

Kenya unlike us in the 1990s have a robust commercial sector and even if there are reports of massive capital flight, one should expect they will come through eventually. The key is the government, does it have the cojones to do what is needed to do or will it only tweak around the edges and hope for the best?

Do the necessary maybe politically expensive, but if they get down to it now maybe by the time of the next election in 2028, the economic pressures will have eased with the greater efficiencies created and the William Ruto adminstration may very well have been forgiven by then.

The current Uganda government cash squeeze, a result of a growing debt servicing bill – it jumped 50 percent to $722m in 2022 from $480m in 2021 and growing, is cause for concern. Thankfully our revenues continue to grow as do our export receipts. The hope is these will continue to grow despite the strain on the private sector, which government owes sh8trillion and shows little willingness to settle – in this budget sh200b was provided towards retiring this debt, but maybe a case of us burying our heads in the sand.

With our politics in transition, it is unlikely that the government can take the hard decisions, like it did in the 1990s to get the economy back on track. The trick is to not to dig ourselves into that hole or take the initiative in cutting down the cost of our public administration before someone comes along and forces us to do it.

Happy New Year!