Jack a SACCO member from Soroti, remains unimpressed by the latest lofty figures issued by the finance ministry.
“GDP grew by 6.3
percent… the shilling is the most stable in Africa… we’ve climbed two places on
the Human Development Index…”.
Jack, who runs a small grain aggregation
business and is still paying interest on his loan, just shook his head. “Sounds
nice,” he muttered, “but who’s this economy working for?”
The Minister’s
statement was full of shiny numbers.
"The economy’s size has grown to Sh226 trillion. Per capita income is up. Inflation is low at 3.8 percent. Exports have surged by 64 percent. Uganda’s HDI has improved farom 0.550 to 0.582, pushing us up from 159th to 157th globally. Life expectancy is now nearly 69. And fewer Ugandans are officially poor. On paper, we are making progress.
But for many
ordinary Ugandans, that progress feels like it’s passing them by.
To paraphrase the Bible, man was not made for the economy, but the economy was made for man
. If rising GDP doesn’t translate into shorter clinic queues, more school meals, working street lights and clean water in Kyenjojo or Bukedea, then the numbers are just decoration. The true test of an economy isn’t how much it grows but who it lifts.
Uganda’s economy
is rising, yes. But it is also concentrating. Growth is increasingly captured
by the urban elite, the formal sector, and those already connected. Meanwhile,
the boda rider in Kamwenge still can’t get a working health centre. The teacher
in Adjumani still spends half her salary on rent and sugar. The graduate in
Nebbi is still unemployed three years on.
The Minister
pointed to falling income inequality—measured by a drop in the Gini coefficient
from 0.413 to 0.382. But inequality has a way of hiding in plain sight. We see
it in who gets government contracts. Who lives near a tarmacked road. Who has
electricity. Who qualifies for financing without collateral.
And inequality
isn’t just an unfortunate side effect—it is an indictment. An indictment of a
government that still collects too little revenue, misallocates too many
resources, and often fails to deliver value for money.
It is one thing
to secure credit for roads, dams and hospitals. It is quite another to ensure
those roads are pothole-free, the dams functional, and the hospitals staffed.
Better distribution of the benefits of growth will only come when government
projects are implemented more efficiently—by minimising corruption, for one,
and prioritising actual delivery of public goods.
You see the
disconnect in credit. Yes, private sector lending has grown to nearly Sh24
trillion. But ask a cassava farmer in Kumi how many banks are competing to
finance her operations. Most of that credit flows to the same old sectors: real
estate in Najeera, trade in Bugolobi, construction deals in Nakasero. The new
economy is expanding, but too many are still locked out of it.
Even the
celebrated fall in poverty—from 20.3 percent to 16.1 percent needs context. One
bad harvest, one illness, one funeral, and a household can slip back.
Development isn’t just about moving people above the poverty line, it’s about
building buffers so they stay there. And that requires investment in things
like universal healthcare, decent education, rural roads, and low-cost
electricity not just GDP growth.
The diaspora sent back $1.4 billion last year. A lifesaver. But it’s also a warning sign. If the economy is rising, why are so many Ugandans still fleeing to wash dishes in Dubai or guard malls in Doha? Remittances are helpful, but they should be a complement—not a crutch.
The Minister did
mention the Parish Development Model, Emyooga, Uganda Development Bank (UDB)
and other wealth creation funds. Good tools in theory. But ask a youth group in
Nwoya how long it took to get the money. Ask a SACCO in Pallisa how many times
they were sent back for new documentation. For these programmes to work, they
need to be streamlined, depoliticised, and corruption-proofed. Implementation
is not a footnote. It is the difference between transformation and tokenism.
The macro numbers
may be humming, but the micro reality is often grim.
Of course, we
should be proud of our achievements. Uganda is growing. But growth without
equity is a recipe for disillusionment, social strife and political instability.
If we want a $500 billion economy by 2040, we must build it on a foundation of
inclusion—where prosperity isn’t gated in Munyonyo but visible in Masindi,
Kabale and Kitgum.
Because in the
end, economic growth that fails to reduce injustice is simply inequality in a
suit.
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