NRM CEMENTING THE WOMEN VOTE

By the time of writing this parliament was in its final day of approving President Yoweri Museveni’s 80- person cabinet.

This cabinet will prove a landmark in coming years especially because we have women filling in the positions of vice president and prime minster, Jessica Alupo and Robinah Nabbanja but also because women booked  four in ten of the ministerial positions, a first in Uganda’s history.

This is a high point in women’s politics, which while we had women ministers in previous governments, the flood gates of women ministers were flung open in the last 35 years.

The critics of the NRM would not like to hear that, and for good reason.

Historically, not only in Uganda, patrilineal society has shut women out of politics. That is why in the 21st century the US is celebrating their first female vice president.

The nature of the NRM’s bush war however made it impossible to ignore the women’s contribution and hence rig politics to ensure they got a place at the table.

When you are in guerilla struggle it is literally all hands on deck, every body counts, you do not have the luxury of recruiting only men in your ranks. Women finding themselves in the rebel ranks would have been dead weight weren’t they able to make themselves useful.

Secondly,

in order to swell its ranks when it came out of the bush, the NRM sought to incorporate groups previously marginalised...

In 1989 the NRM introduced the women’s female district representative position which added a 39 new seats to the National Resistance Council (NRC), the parliament of the time.

While some people criticised this as tokenism, the  women saw it as a foot in a door and have guarded it jealously ever since.

Other initiatives like the affirmative action for women joining university, has ensured that there is a continuous pipeline of women into politics.

As a result, a female politician does not draw double takes from a population who now see women as real contenders in politics.

And why the critics of the NRM do not like this, the ruling NRM has all the cards in its pocket. It can do some political grandstanding by appointing women to cabinet, has the most district women MPs and can appoint women to any number of high offices in government, the opposition does not have as much leeway. 

"The double benefit to the NRM too, is that most women appointed have performed well, even when more has been expected of them than their male colleagues... .

So its very easy for the NRM to portray itself as the champion of the women vote.

Against the background of the NRM’s dismal performance in the Buganda region in the last election, you can see how the importance of women constituency almost overnight.

The political calculation is that by elevating women to positions of authority, women around the country may see the NRM as the only party that can speak to their issues, if not fully but better than the others.

And its not that NRM has been a good benefactor, in private many women think they are just being used, but its that the ruling party has given them a real chance of effecting change. While the sexists may see it as window dressing, they underestimate the power of example and the possibilities opened up to the millions of young girls around the country in seeing women in power.

Beyond the opposition being unable to make such high profile appointments,

"this political sleight of hand speaks to two political acts we are holding our breaths for – the 2026 presidential elections and the Museveni succession issue....

For the second, the constitution is clear that in the event the president can not carry on, the vice president can takes his place. This may take added importance because no one thought Edward Sekandi had a chance of ascending to the helm of Ugandan politics. Whether Alupo has a chance or not, is less about her and more about the women’s lobby who would be easier to mobilise nationwide than any other constituency tribal or religious. The example of Tanzania’s female Samia Suluhuh Hassan is useful, but not as powerful as the thinking, now ingrained in Uganda that women can get the job done.

As for the 2026 presidential elections, what this cabinet list may very well show in coming years is that the NRM and Museveni in particular may have caught a second wind. 

Assuming the now powerful women execute their duties to the letter, not only will the NRM benefit from a job well done and hence ride on the success of these women but there will always be a feeling that the NRM will al ways do right by them.

Of course the NRM need be aware that when you give them an inch they will take a mile.

"The women of Uganda will not settle for a reversion to the old ways they will always expect to be represented meaningfully at the high table of this country’s politics, as is their right as the more populous of the genders...

Barring any disasters this cabinet may have sealed the 2026 presidential election.

TO BELIEVE OR NOT BELIEVE THE BUDGET

In last week’s budget we heard that the economy grew by 3.3 percent in this financial year compared to last year when the economy grew by 3.0 percent.

This is pitiful given that, prior to the covid-19 pandemic it was projected that this year the economy would grow by more than 6.0 percent.

During the Absa Bank Uganda post budget forum held on Friday it was interesting to hear various experts note that while the economy had been badly hit it was still showing growth, which has a lot to do with the way our economy is structured.

"It helps of course that we can feed ourselves as a nation. Despite the restrictions on movement and congregation the agriculture sector kept us afloat in this important aspect...

But beyond feeding us our farms also produce our biggest tradables among ourselves and in the region.

Commissioner General John Musinguzi who was a panelist at the Absa Bank forum, which was themed “Implications of the budget proposals on trade and manufacturing” said the two sectors accounted for just over half of the revenue collections.

While both sectors took a hit in the last year they still dominate the revenue collections, which suggests that it was wise for government not to restict the movement of cargo, never mind that truck drivers caused us a lot of grief in hte first pandemic wave.

While Absa mananging director Mumba Kalifungwa along with others were glad to hear governmnet maintained its commitment on the infrastructure development, Damalie Ssali, coutry director at Trademark East Africa however, pointed out that we also need to improve the roads within the country.

She reported that

Uganda loses $1.5m (Sh5.2b) daily from cars idling in Kampala traffic...

They are all connected – agriculture, higher trade volumes and manufacturing revenues and the traffic jams of Kampala.

The losses due to traffic are not just numbers, somebody has to pay for them. Beyond the increase in hypertension among drivers,  its the poorest who bear the burden of these losses in terms of poor service delivery. Because that is money that is disposable income that would have gone into buying goods and services, increasing demand for our products, keeping people in jobs or creating more altogether.

I suspect even the $1.5m daily loss is understated.

The finance ministry’s director of budget Ken Mugambe in speaking about the parish development model said at least sh5trillion has been earmarked for the programs, flowing down to the 10,000-plus parishes. While there are seven pillars of the model, government will focus on three – financial inclusion, beefing up the parish administration structures and data collection.

On one hand people see this as an attempt o byass the middlemen and get resources nearer the household, the critics however, point to the inadequate administration structures as the loophole, which will not only frustrate the program’s inception but also provide an avenue to enrich a few bureaucrats who take advantage of the confusion.

Other critics wonder whether the same work can not be executed through existing government structures and that the parish development model may be a duplication of functions.

"The intention is good, it may be failed by the implementation...

In the parish development model among other things they have provided for extension services, irrigation and bulking of products, which are useful if we are to bring agroindustrialisation into reality.

The truth is

while we can feed ourselves as a country, we do not produce enough surpluses to sustain a robust agro-industrial complex....

Production in the agricultural sector has to make quantum leaps before agorindustrialisation and its benefits of improved farmgate prices, higher export receipts and job creation can be a reality.

Increased agricultural production can increase jobs by more than the million jobs government looks to create by building industrial parks and free trade zones.

Increased production requires a market to absorb it. The East African Community now account for about a quarter of all our trade and the promise of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area look set to snap our increased production. But Uganda Manafacturer’s Association (UMA)  executive director Daniel Birungi, worried that if we do not have robust trade dispute resolution mechanisms as we have seen wth our dealings with Rwanda, where our common border has b een closed for two years, what hope is there for trading efficiently with countries far afield on the continent?

"So while we are feeling the pain of the covid pandemic in our pockets, continued macro economic stability, the improved business environment due to infrastructural improvements and the promise of increased agricultural productivity give us hope for the future....

Time will tell.

DON’T LET THE FACTS GET IN THE WAY OF A GOOD STORY

I am a sucker for the happy ending story, especially about businessmen who started from scratch and made it big. But like the next guy I can not help but have my head turned by hot money tales.

The tales of people striking “deals” – often by being paid a bribe or illegal commission for “work” done.

Here a few of my choicest not in any  order of preference.

1. Money in the boot. The procurement deal had gone down as planned with the official responsible set to collect his several hundreds of millions as a result. On the appointed day the official called the seller to his watering hole near the top of one of Kampala’s hills. They shared a few beers before the official said he would like to leave. The seller sent his two hanger-ons to go transfer the money –packed tight in carton boxes from one car to the next. A fellow patron looking out of the washroom window counted 6 boxes shifting from one car to the next. On return to his table he made a rough calculation that assuming sh50,000 bundles stacked six high, two across and eight along the length each box had at least sh480m. Do the math!

2. The driver with a home in Munyonyo. During the height of the Public Service  corruption scandal the story that threw me for a loop was the arrest of a driver whose job it was transfer money from point A to point B. They arrested him as he drove out of his gated home in Munyonyo area, driving his less than five years old Toyota Hilux double cabin car.

3. Christmas comes early. It had been a long weekend and a good stiff drink would do before he went home. When he checked at the ATM in addition to the sh237,564 he was expecting there was a 10 preceeding the figure. He checked in three other ATMs in the vicinity and yes he had ten million more than he expected and it was only March. All was soon revealed when on Monday he got a call from the accountant at work ordering him to route nine million of the money to another account. Christmas did not come early for him again because the accountant in question was fired soon after, but apparently the racket had been going on for years.

4. Changing X5s like underwear. They had known him from when he was just out of O-Level. He was helpful around the club and several of them can claim to have helped him pay his way through university. Through connections at the club he got a job at a leading multinational in the finance department. The rumours begun – he had built himself a house with a pool, he had hundreds of millions of shillings invested on the stock exchange, his breakfast daily cost sh50,000 delivered from a high end restaurant. But the straw that broke the camel’s back was when he totalled his new BMW X5 and before they could commensurate with him the next day at the club he drove in, in a new X5.

5. What a million dollars looks like. He was literally sweating from the experience. His friend had had a briefcase delivered to him with the equivalent of a million dollars in it. Wads of a hundred dollar bills stacked four by two by 12 – okay that was $960,000 but he said he got a million dollars maybe the $40,000 was in his coat pockets. The challenge was how to launder the money, pass it through legitimate businesses to hide its source and justify his coming into such an amount. At the corner of your neighbourhood there is a block of apartments going up at record speed, could that be him?

6. What goes on in the basement? The call had come in to organise a $700,000 payment within hours and the management was in a frenzy, cobbling together the figure from several of their branches. The client came in at 12:53 – its the kind of detail you remember when you are passing on such amounts of money. A senior executive had come down to the front office to personally supervise the transfer, maybe get a tip for his “effort”.  The client came in picked up the money, stuffed it in a sports bag. He was escorted to the basement where he had parked his car. He walked to a car opened the passenger door placed the money on the floor below the dash board and walked off. But not before the beautiful lady in shades, short skirt and heels had been seen.

Whenever I hear these stories I wonder how we can be breathing the same air with people carrying around millions or billions in their boots.

If you hear another one please share – the story, I mean.

WHY IS UGANDA A DIFFICULT INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT?

In the last two weeks we have witnessed the swearing in of President Yoweri Museveni and the 500-odd MPs of he 11^th parliament.

We await the announcement of the new cabinet with bated breath, not least of all the business community.

The Uganda National Chamber of Commerce & Industry (UNCCI) president Olive Kigongo and businessman Patrick Bitature in these pages have called for a private sector friendly house.

They appeal to the politicians because while the strength of any economy is dependent  on the viability and vibrancy of the business community, the politicians are the ones who lay down the rules and ensure their enforcement, or not...

Enforcement of the law is important because it provides a predictable environment in which investors – local and foreign, can make  educated calculations on how to invest in the country. If there is uncertainity investors – local and foreign, stay away or adopt a wait-and-see attitude and don’t invest as much as they should. that’s common sense. Even if for love of country I would not put all my eggs in this basket when I am not sure I can keep my eggs leave alone produce more eggs.

Amidst all the political high drama of the last few weeks, some news fell between the cracks.

At cigarette company BAT’s annual General Meeting last week the country boss Kirunda Magola complained that there is an increase of smuggled cigarettes in the country, which are easily identifiable as they do not carry the statutory required warnings on their packets.

This suggests that not only are they not paying taxes and are allowed to sell in our shops despite being obviously contraband, but they are also dampening BAT sales hence denying us much needed revenue. It also means that we may be letting in substandard products that we have no control over.

That is bad enough, but it is also  affecting our neighbours because the country has become a conduit for this illicit trade, affecting legitimate businessmen in the region.

And BAT are not the only ones complaining of government’s inability to enforce its own laws.

A few years ago a major fuel company pulled out of Uganda because, while they were enforcing all the standards required by the law at their stations, at great cost to their margins, other players were flaunting these with impunity, undercutting the major players and in the process turning Kampala into a fireball waiting to happen.  

We are shooting ourselves in the foot.

"Government officials can talk all they want how the country is a good investment destination with double digit returns on investment, widening market and liberal policies, but businessmen listen more to their fellow businessmen and know better than to swallow wholesale everything the government tells them....

Then net effect of this is that legitimate businesses steer away and the more unscrupulous types come calling.

They have their local backers in high places who, for a few dollars more, ensure government looks the other way, the genuine businessmen be damned.

In defending the illicit trade they appeal to some false nationalism -- “Its our people eating at least” but the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

What we are doing as a country is nurturing organised crime and the networks that feed them. The networks that are used to smuggle cigarettes or fuel or batteries are the same networks that are used to smuggle guns, drugs, facilitate human trafficking, the movement of terrorists and assassins.

"Very soon, if its not already happening, these organised gangs coopt government officials into their nefarious schemes and we could very soon become a gangster state....

It has happened before.

In Montenegro, to go around UN imposed sanctions on the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s they leased their ports to cigarette smugglers. When things returned to normal the cigarette smugglers – by this time they had branched out into prostitution and gun running, did no t go away and the new government could not make them.

It got so  bad that Italy at one time put out an arrest warrant for former prime minister Milo Djukanovic for his or his government’s alleged role in the cigarette smuggling business. 

The last elections showed that government needs to urgently create millions of jobs by the time this political cycle ends, we can not do that by letting tax dodgers take root in this country.

THE KABALAGALA MAN

There is this gentleman who sells kabalagala – the small pan fired delicacies often made using ripe bananas and flour, by the roadside. That would not be anything to write home about except that this young man is often neatly turned out in a tie and often in a suit.

His kabalagala is polythene rapped in packs of five, which cost a convenient sh1000. He is respectful, always has change and he is joy to buy from, especially when you are stuck in traffic.

Unfortunately I havent talked to him at any length about his business but I notice every time I pass by he is doing brisk business from his box which I estimate contains more than 500 kabalagala when full.

Last year’s lockdown must have put the brakes on his progress but I see he is back at his slot serving with a smile.

We have said before in this column that for most of our businessmen its not about the economy failing them, but because they just have bad customer service...

Contrast the young man above with the lady who serves out of a restaurant I frequent. I have happened upon her sleeping at her station and often have to be prompted for service when she is awake. On occasion she doesn’t have change and when you leave your change with her , the impression is that you might as well say good bye to it. She is in business because she has a captive market, but she could do so much better if she improved her body language around her clients.

Or the other day I go to get my second Covid jab and the health center is a mess with no order, people milling around you could not tell who had come for the first or second jab and therefore who should be given priority. I jumped the queue --- there was no line to speak of,  on account of my graying pate. But it was no thanks to the young nurse who was standing on the verandah a bowl of fruit in her hand, chomping away at here fene. I had mistaken her for a fellow vaccinate. Wen I asked what the procedure is she said I should just seat  and somebody would come around to attend to me.

Yeah right. I ignored her and headed for a more elderly doctor who seemed to be actively trying to get us vaccinated. Now if she had been more helpful I may have found it in my stone cold heart to fork out a tip on my way out. A shilling saved is a shilling made.  

"It is easier and cheaper to grow the business off your existing customer base than to go out looking for others. Poor customer service means this can not happen and your business is more invested in roping in new hapless clients who would rather not do business with you if they had known how you behave...

I am sure there is a study somewhere that has n ailed down how much business lose due to poor customer service but I am guessing it must be a  huge number. I am willing to bet people would more than double their revenues if they brushed up on the way they treat their clients.

And I am probably understating it.

Imagine you have a clean place of business, so on first impressions you are ahead of the game. Despite constant entreaties since childhood not to judge a book by the cover we all do. Then your front line workers if they are in clean uniform, ready with a smile and seeming dedicated to meeting your every need you are making significant strides.

This is probably a good argument for treating your staff better. You treat the well they treat your clients well and they keep coming back.

Taking it a bit further what if this same front line workers are schooled in every aspect of the business, so for instance they know why six inch nails should be used for the job you want not the four inch ones you had ordered, they move from just pushing things down your throat to being consultants. Have you ever been to a restaurant and somehow haven’t decided what to eat but the waitresses can recommend something for you and tell you why? Pure bliss.

And then the actually delivery of the service has to be live up to the foreplay. If there is a delay come back and inform us of progress. There is nothing that makes me want to pull out my hair in frustration than a waiter who after a lot of clapping and whistling – I have found that “Gwe!” works best, than they turn up at your table and tell you what you have ordered is not available, 30 minutes later.

In brand building there are four basic components that need to be addressed; awareness, if no one knows your brand its not a brand and then associations, when people think of your brand do their think of dependability and quality or shoddiness and crap. Then the experience people enjoy or suffer interacting with your brand. If you can tick off positive attributes on those first three then the fourth, loyalty will follow.

What good customer service does for you is improve the association attributed  to your brand and the customer experience. Funny thing is if this a good, by word of mouth awareness increases and loyalty follows.

Last week an AfriArena study showed that Uganda is doing badly in attracting start up capital.  According to the report in 2020 Uganda only managed to attract $11.3m (about sh40b) compared to neighbours Kenya who did $305m. Even smaller economy Rwanda bit us to the post accounting for $11.6m in startup capital to the continent.

UI am sure there are many high sounding reasons for this state of affairs, but i am willing to bet that because of our poor customer service we are unable to scale up or show the ability to scale up our businesses to the point that they are attractive for outside investment. That is a saddening thought.

REBECCA KADAGA, THE END OF AN ERA?

This week Rebecca Kadaga made way for her successor Jacob Oulanya after weeks of acrimonious campaigning, that was brought to a decided close when the National Resistance Movement (NRM) top organ nominating Oulanya as the party flagbearer in the race for speaker.

After her Sunday snub by the Central Executive Committee (CEC) Kadaga opted to break ranks with her party and run as an independent the next day.

"Only the romantics thought Kadaga had a chance in a house firmly in the grip of the NRM. President Yoweri Museveni, filling in for the Chief Whip made personal calls to key members to ensure Oulanya took the day...

The drama that preceded the count however masked another interesting story, that Kadaga is one of a pioneer group of politicians that benefitted from the NRM’s overhauling of the country’s politics.

When the NRM took over Kampala in January 1986 they were the most formidable fighting force but were politically weak on the ground. Were elections to be held within the next 12 months they may very well have been sent packing back to the bush.

To their credit they could have decided not to bother with politics, like Idi Amin before them but they decided they need to create a political base. They did this by suspending political party activity and allowing people to run for office on individual merit.

The first change froze the parties in place and the second allowed budding politicians to jump the party queue and compete for office, an opportunity that may not have turned up soon give the party processes of the time, where a small clique of men decided who run or did not.

Not only did Kadaga benefit from these two moves but also the introduction of the women’s district seat in the 1989 National Resistance Council (NRC), another initiative that ingratiated the NRM with the woman vote and expanded their political base even further.

Apart from the Constituent Assembly, where she did not participate, Kadaga has been the woman MP of Kamuli District since 1989.

"Kadaga was the last man standing of a crop of politicians that included former vice presidents Specioza Kazibwe, Professor Gilbert Bukenya, former prime minster Cosmas Adyebo and a motley crew of ministers like Victoria Sekitoleko, Francis Babu and Aggrey Awori who maximized on the NRM’s initial political machinations...

It is arguable that while in their individual rights they may have climbed through the original party structures and enjoyed some success, it is probable that they would not have risen to prominence as quickly.

And the trend has continued. Of all the MPs that were in the last house only three in ten managed to make it back to the house. Individuals in the constituency do not have to pledge allegiance to the party structures there to present themselves as would be the case before.

The trend is particular pronounced in the ruling NRM where in some constituencies dozens can show up to try and win the party flag.

Initially, as stated above it was a way to build a political base, for which it has proven extremely successful. Today it continues to renew the party at every poll. As an example the only ministers from the original cabinet in 1986 there remains only Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda, who is ex –officio. Kahinda Otafire, who has only just returned to the house after an electoral loss in 2016 and General Moses Ali.

"One of the better legacies of the NRM will be that they flung open the doors to political office like no one before them. The party has remained coherent despite the regular bloodletting and it is not expected that Kadaga’s exit will change that...

That being said high profile politicians like Kadaga and Kazibwe before her have shown, especially young women, that politics is a field in, which they too can aspire to and perform in.

That may not be a stated legacy of the Kadaga two decades in the Speaker’s office but it is one that will reverberate down history.

Her ouster while not a hard departure from the past, is a useful marker of when the Movement made a final break from the old parties and now runs largely on its own steam, with leaders who have been nothing but movement or even have known no other party in their life time.

Me thinks it also marks another interesting milestone in the NRM project that will be revealed in the fullness of time.

THE PRICE IS WHAT YOU PAY AND VALUE IS WHAT YOU GET

My favorite American, Warren Buffet says price is what you pay and value is what you get. Value for money is when you pay as little as possible for good value.

This is at the core of his investment philosophy but it is really common sense, or not. If it was common sense Buffett would never have become the richest investor in the world.  He has made his billions from the lack of common sense of other investors.

He looks to buy companies – whole or off the stock exchange, that are selling at a discount, hence representing good value and holding them “forever”. Benefitting in the short term from their dividend payouts and in the long term from their appreciation.

Interestingly his company Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t pay a dividend, it paid out once in the last 50 years and Buffett thinks he must have been in the bathroom when that happened.

Not the subject of this discussion but why he doesn’t pay dividends is because he argues that his shareholders will be better served by him reinvesting the dividends for them as there is no better investment vehicle on the horizon. A share of Berkshire Hathaway, at the time of writing this was trading at $431,421.70 (about sh1.55b).

Buffett and his investment philosophy we shall shelve for another day.

If you took his quote and flipped it around it would read something like, how much you get paid is commiserate with the value you deliver to the market.

I got to thinking about this when I passed a driver who had broken his seat, was sleeping, feet on dash board as he waited for his boss.

And I thought this guy has one of the most valuable commodities in the world hanging loosely on his hands – Time.

Then I wondered what could he do with his time to increase his value to his boss or in the job market or to the general economy?

If Buffett is correct the more value you deliver the more you get paid.

"You are not being paid enough (who is?) either because you are not of much value or the market does not see your value. So the question for everyone who wants to get paid more is, how does one increase their value and have the market recognize that value?

This probably is a whole course unit, or should be, in some university somewhere so we will be only be scraping the surface of the subject in the 700-odd words that we are allowed here.

To begin with value is determined by the market and not by you. You can go to Harvard and master in rocket science and come back to Uganda, you may die a pauper despite the high price of your education and the sophistication of the subject you are a specialist in. If you stayed in America you are more likely to be paid better, especially now that the private sector is sending rockets to the heavens.

On an individual level you increase your value by increasing your knowledge and experience, that’s why a university graduate would be paid more than a S4 dropout. But an S4 drop out can study and become an accounts technician and by the time his contemporaries are off to university will have a job and by the time they come out after three or four years, he could have got his ACCA and be more valuable to the market than his graduate friends.

A combination of experience and marketable qualification will make the difference.

If you are in business the value of your company will increase to the extent that you can develop a competitive advantage – develop production processes that cannot be replicated that produce a quality good that many want. Again you would have to invest in the knowledge of your people and processes and develop the competence that only come with time.

Back to the driver dozing in his boss’ car what would he do to increase his value to the market?

Going back to school is not practical, in the traditional sense, but maybe he can use his smart phone for more than just Facebook and premier league scores. He could improve his English, learn business administration, acquiring the skills of a personal assistant – in addition to his driving skills, and become more valuable to his boss.

If he used those same skills to start a business, he would serve more people than his boss, immediately increasing his value. There in is a major trick, to make more money you need to serve more and more people. And to do this successfully you not only have to have built in yourself or business, value but communicate it to the market. It will not serve you to have the sweetest rollex around when no one knows about it.