MAGUFULI, THE SOCIAL MEDIA PRESIDENT

Last month Dr John Magufuli took office as the President of the Republic of Tanzania after a hotly contested campaign against Edward Lowassa, a defector from the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.

Whereas some observers held out that Lowassa had a real chance of overturning the CCM’s half a century hold on power, Magufuli beat him handily polling 58 percent of the votes.

Sworn in as president on November 5, Magufuli lost no time in making his presence felt. Days into his presidency he visited Muhimbili Hospital, a major referral hospital, and finding it in a deplorable state fired the administrator and gave the staff days to get some vital equipment up and running or risk going the same way as their boss.

He was not done yet.

He then slashed the budget for a celebrations for MPs and used the savings to buy beds and mattresses for that same hospital.

"What some might have dismissed as kasigiri and thought would burn out as soon as it erupted were sorely disappointed...

Magufuli then took an axe to foreign travel trips for officials, dictating that Tanzanians embassy staff will represent the country abroad. The savings for this he has earmarked for social services.

Unfazed by the grumbling of government bureaucrats, Magufuli questioned the wisdom of the paying public servants allowances for work they were supposed to do anyway.

The coup de grace – until the next one, Magufuli scrapped this year’s independence celebrations which fall on 9^th December, wondering how the country can spend millions on these celebrations when cholera is running amok in some places. He has directed that instead Tanzanians will engage in public cleaning of their surroundings.

And oh yes! He has also stopped the sending of Christmas cards by government offices staring this festive season.

They may look like tokenism, even grand standing from afar, but h they have succeeded in setting the tone of his presidency and sending out the message that it will not be business as usual with the good doctor of chemistry.

Two things have managed to swing the regional and international spotlight on Magufuli.

People who know Magufuli are unsurprised by the devout Catholic’s willing ness to overturn the status quo but even they express surpise at the speed and extent of what he has done.

He has held several ministerial briefs under his predecessor Jakaya Kikwete, including the lucrative works ministry, where some of his contemporaries vouch for his clean reputation.

Magufuli is no political novice, after all you do not capture for yourself the leadership of the CCM by being a wall flower, but the explosion in social media means that his exploits were being broadcast in real time to networks of thousands even millions finding its way across the world before the TV bulletins, something that was impossible even five years ago.

"Of course it helped that he served as breath of fresh air into an ossified political landscape and played to an audience – around the region, used to government fat cats living  first world lifestyles amidst their dehumanising poverty...

If anyone had any doubts about how social media can be a game changer the Magufuli phenomenon has to have put those to rest.

Two things can happen.

Buoyed by the groundswell of support Magufuli can ride it to do a much needed clean-up of Tanzania’s politics and carry the momentum to introduce other unpopular measures, like the complete opening up to the East African Community and the unlocking of this sleepy giants full potential.

Or he can succumb to the blow back from the rattled beneficiaries of the status quo, who are undoubtedly burning the midnight candle to subvert his “people’s revolution” and return things to business as usual.

On a purely sentimental basis I hope Magufuli beats back his detractors and continues on his pro-people crusade, but I fear that the inertia of Tanzanian bureaucracy, which is the slowest in the region anyhow, will bring the bulldozer – a soubriquet he earned while for his indomitable spirit in the face of obstacles in his previous ministries, to a grinding halt.

In the latter case I would love to be wrong. Time will tell.

UGANDA’S SUGAR INDUSTRY IN DANGER OF IMPLOSION

The El Nino rains and cane poaching are expected to affect Uganda’s sugar production, the latter issue will also affects the long term viability of an industry which has made a remarkable recovery after years of neglect. Uganda last year produced 438,000 tons of sugar way above the local demand…

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THE POWER OF CONSISTENT CONTRIBUTION

Last week the New Vision Staff Savings & Credit Cooperative commemorated ten years of its existence.

What started off as a lunch time discussion has blossomed into a company with more than a million dollars in assets and a net asset value of a billion shillings.

Those numbers look like nothing compared to the biggest tax payers in the country (The New Vision SACCO also pays taxes) but it has taken a decade to grow the business with our own resources. Even more noteworthy is that members who did not have two cents to rub together at its inception have accounts that run in the millions of shillings.

At the event the Dunstan Kisule, the CEO of the Y-SaveSACCO, which inspired the New Vision SACCO, gave us a snapshot of what they have achieved in the last 16 years, which was enough to snap us out of our complacency at what we have achieved so far and give us new targets to aim for going forward.

"Cooperative organisations in their various permutations are a powerful tool for pooling resources and deploying them in direct response to the societies that they serve...

But the even more powerful lesson from the Cooperatives is they debunk the fallacy that we do not have the resources amongst ourselves to cause local development. By employing the time and proper organisation we can achieve more in time than we can ever believe possible.

My best SACCO story is the Wazalendo story, the biggest SACCO in Uganda, whose members are the officers and men of the UPDF.

After a decade of operations the 73,000 strong organisation reported total assets of sh130b ( $36m) and shareholder equity of sh67b. This is all the more remarkable because we all know that our soldiers are not the best paid members of our society.

This organisations are formed with a social mission at the center of their raison d’etre but they all make profits, so profits and social responsibility are not mutually exclusive. In fact businessmen are coming around to the fact that revenues and profits are only a by-product of providing a service to society.

And we are not reinventing the wheel. SACCOs dotted the countryside for years, only disrupted by our turbulent past, they are still there trying to make the best of a difficult situation. But their mobilising resources nevertheless, putting to shame people who think there is no money in the rural areas.

"It is a well worn cliché but whose wisdom is irrefutable that when there is collective action the sum total of its effect is more than the sum of the individual parts. They call it synergy, one plus one is not two but eleven...

Decades of donor dependence means that every time we have a need we look outside ourselves, be it as individuals, communities or even nationally when if we put our minds to it most of the resources we need we can mobilise domestically.

But beyond that SACCOS if run soundly take advantage of what Albert Einstein called the eighth wonder of the world – compounding, essentially that benefits (in this case interest) beget benefits begets benefits.

So if one saved a million shillings in year one and there was say a five percent interest on that money every year, it would take fourteen years to double that figure. But for a saver who is consistent adding a million year for those fourteen years a rough calculation suggests they will have accumulated about sh21million – sh14 principle and sh7m in interest.

And we have not even begun to look at the capital gains from the increase in value in members shareholding in the coop, which if the costs are kept down and profits retained aggressively can grow multiple times faster than the savings.

Across the border from us in Kenya where SACCOs have gone largely undisturbed at least since independence, the hundreds of SACCOs peppered around the country control savings of more than $20b or the equivalent of Ugandan economy. But the Kenyans have moved to the next level and are now forming investment clubs with as much vigour as they did the SACCOs in the years gone by.

The SACCOs when well-run serve a useful social service but beyond that as a force for transformation of societies where access to finance is restricted.

They do not need hand-outs, though money injected in well-run SACCOs can produce prodigious returns, what they need is advisory services on how to run them properly and build their capacity in sustainable ways.

REGION SORELY NEEDS POPE’S CALMING PRESENCE

The more things change the more it seems they stay the same.

The last time a Pope visited Uganda a genocide was bubbling under the surface in Rwanda, an intractable war continued in South Sudan, and in Somalia Mohammad Farrah Aidid was trying to strengthen his grip on a country which was in the throes of implosion after the overthrow of Siad Barre two years previously.

Fast forward to today and Pope Francis is visiting a troubled region grappling with civil war, disease and poverty.

The Somalia peace process flatters to deceive, South Sudan is squandering its promise, Burundi is on the edge of the kind of wanton violence, a throw back to Rwanda two decades ago and in the Central African Republic --- Pope Francis’ final stop on this tour, the center is failing to hold as marauding gangs make the country ungovernable.

In the interim Uganda has fashioned itself into a regional enforcer with campaigns in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central Africa Republic, South Sudan and Somalia. It has participated in peace missions further afield in Liberia.

Uganda sees itself as a peace enforcer than peace keeper, holding the ultimate sanction over warring parties a mission that evolved out of the disgust at the sterility of UN peace keepers during the Rwanda genocide.

"Pope Francis, which name he chose in honour of Saint Francis of Asisi, who famously yearned to be an instrument of God’s peace, may agree on the general principle of seeking regional peace but may disagree with Kampala’s methods...

He will complete the second year of his papacy in March next year, a papacy which has done more to change the perception of his office through his message of compassion and his humble demeanour, than any other Pope since Pope Paul  VI.

Pope Paul VI whose 15-year papacy came to an end on his death in 1978, created more dialogue with other religions and opened the mass to a personal appreciation by millions by allowing the use of local languages. Previously the high mass was said in Latin.

He comes at a time of charged emotions as Ugandans rev up for a crucial presidential election next year, yet another cross roads in this country’s political journey.

A campaign loaded with vitriolic, coloured by past slights and painted with character smears which while we giggle at the name calling we know we are fast reaching a place of no return where resolution will be a zero sum game. And we are only two weeks in to the campaigns.

The main antagonists President Yoweri Museveni, KIzza Besigye and Amama Mbabazi have suspended their campaigns for the duration of the successor of St Peter’s trip, before they go after each other with hammer and tongs again.

"It would be an important interlude during which we as a country can reflect and even take St Francis of Assisi famous prayer to heart, if only to banish our turbulent past and the foreboding signals ahead....

Lord, make me an instrument of Your peace.

Where there is hatred, let me sow love;

Where there is injury, pardon;

Where there is doubt, faith;

Where there is despair, hope;

Where there is darkness, light;

Where there is sadness, joy.

O, Divine Master, grant that I may not so much seek to be consoled as to console;

To be understood as to understand;

To be loved as to love;

For it is in giving that we receive;

It is in pardoning that we are pardoned;

It is in dying that we are born again to eternal life.

UGANDA: POPE FRANCIS VISIT A WELCOME RELIEF FROM CAMPAIGN FEVER

Pope Francis visit to Uganda, a trip steeped in history, at the end of this week, threatens to bring much needed relief to a country in the throes of its most competitive presidential campaign in decades. Pope Francis will be the third Pope to visit Uganda when he touches ground…

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WHAT I WANT TO HEAR DURING THE CAMPAIGNS

Last week I spent a day at the inaugural Nordic East Africa Summit, the plan is this will be a forum for businessmen from the region and the Nordic countries to link up, understand each other and hopefully cut deals.

As proceedings at the Nordic Business Association’s  organised event went along It was interesting to notice how many times these cross cultural interactions have people talking at almost cross purposes. It is not difficult to see how that may be.

For one the Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are a $1.1 trillion economy with a combined population of about 30 million people. There are more than 50 companies from the Nordic countries on the Fortune 500 list – the definitive list of the world’s largest companies.

Our lesser developed business class does not match up, which has real implications beyond the wealth disparities, issues of business practice, of general appreciation of business people and systematic and strategic government support for the private sector.

"In addition to the passage of time you have to wonder how 26 million people, a quarter of the population of the East African Community (EAC) can generate the kind of demand that will build 50 multi-billion dollar companies...

Which brings me squarely to what I want to hear my candidates on the campaign trail talking about.

Increased growth of the business community is the silver bullet to sort out all our problems – political, economic and social and I am sorry I am not hearing enough about what our candidates will do for business.

We should not let our cold war hangups get in the way of economic logic.

The private sector – oftentimes despite the official barriers thrown in its face, is what creates jobs, pays for our general security, infrastructure and social services. To the extent that the country has a viable business community is the extent to which the people will enjoy a good standard of living.

For starters I want to hear our campaigners talking about how they are going to improve the ease and cost of doing business in Uganda. In the most recent Doing Business survey Uganda was ranked 122 out of 189 countries. While this was an improvement from last year’s 135 ranking, being in the bottom half of the index is nothing to write home about.

Measured against a broad measures of indicators relating to licensing and regulations government would do well to focus more on ease of pay taxes, registering property, trading across borders and protecting minority interests in businesses are the measures against we not only fell back but rank poorly.

Interestingly against the measure of getting credit Uganda improved by 86 positions, while we still have high lending rates the introduction of competition in the sector must account for this improvement.

The pricing of credit like any other good or service is subject to supply and demand. It would therefore follow that our lending rates are high due to a shortage of lendable funds. One way to increase lendable funds would be for government to amend how much of workers’ salaries goes towards social security. Currently workers are supposed to save five percent of their income adding just one percentage point would mean a few more hundreds of millions a month going into the banks. 

A figure that will grow as more and more employers sign up.

"That aside government can invest in and encourage business advisory services for businessmen, especially small businessmen. The knee jerk reaction when businessmen are asked what there biggest challenge is to complain of access to finance and the cost of finance. But given how the majority of our businesses do not last past their first birthday however well capitalised they are, suggests a more fundamental inadequacy...

At the Nordic East Africa summit it came through too that finding business partners with a culture – adequate book keeping, strategic processes and operational systems foreign partners could decipher or fit in with, was one of the major deterrents of linking up with local partners.

One participant lamented that because many local businesses are diversified it is difficult to get a true picture of their books, often times an investor buys into a company only to find some hidden liabilities included in the companies valuation they were unaware of.

Sometimes we are just our own worst enemies and we don’t know better than to behave like this.

So yes I want to hear our candidates being more specific on how they will help lift our businesses to higher heights, avert a quick death or getting started on a solid foundation.

THE PARIS TERROR ATTACK, RELEARNING OLD LESSONS

Last Friday a coordinated terror attack on French capital, Paris left more than 120 people dead its wake and the world reeling with shock and groping for answers.

The Islamic State (IS), fighting for control of the parts of Iraq and Syria claimed responsibility for the attack, in retaliation for French operations against them in the aforementioned countries.

"IS as a terror organisation is so brutal in its methods that even Al Qaeda, responsible for the September 2001 attack on the Twin Towers in New York, retch at their methods....

But unlike Al Qaeda which relied mostly on a shadowy network of financiers to fund it’s nefarious enterprise, IS has control of oil fiends in Syria and Iraq that continue to pump fuel and find ready buyers on world markets.

At one point it was estimated that IS was selling as much as 10,000 barrels a day, shipping it out of its territories in kilometre long convoys in to Turkey and then further afield.

This development is disturbing on many front. The two issues that immediately jump to mind are how are they able to produce any oil – it’s not as if you go around the house with a bucket and come back with oil? And secondly how are they able to sell any of it to anybody in this totally connected world?

Uganda is jumping through hoops to get its oil fields ready for production. When all is said and done it will cost as much $20b in infrastructure development in the Albertine region and beyond. And when we are done one probably be able to see from the moon that we have oil fields in western Uganda never mind that at full production only about 60,000 barrels will see the light of day daily. Nigeria can do about 2.5 million barrels a day currently.

So how is it possible with all those high-tech jets wheezing around the middle East that the IS can continue churning out enough crude to actually run a welfare state in many of the places under their control? Reports have it that public workers are leaving their jobs to  go and fight for IS because it not only offers better pay checks but as part of the benefits pays allowances for wives and children.

When the Africa’s “world war” was raging in the early part 2000s, western do gooders came together to ban mineral exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo on the irrefutable logic that it was fuelling the conflict and causing untold suffering for the everyday person in mainly eastern Congo.

The truth be told the campaign merely dented the trade but at least they went through the motions.

Campaigns to restrict these oil exports do not seem to be gaining as much traction as the campaign to shut down export of illicit gems from Africa.

The truth be told, Oil is an essential commodity and normal rules don’t apply to it. But then we find ourselves in a catch -22 situation, on the one hand we want to shut IS down while on the other we can’t wean ourselves off their oil.

"It is not a stretch of logic to say we are actually financing terrorists’ attacks against ourselves by refusing to muster the moral will to clamp down on their oil...

Of course it would be a lot easier if this was only a moral equation. The interconnectedness of world markets means that who is to say that oil from IS is not landing on the bottom lines of some of our most respectable oil traders? And for the sake of profit everyone is pointedly looking the other way?

It is a scary not altogether farfetched scenario, which not only means no one is innocent but also raises the spectre of increased, seemingly random terror attacks around the globe in coming times.