GETTING COVIDEX OUT TO THE MASSES

A fortnight ago the National Drug Authority (NDA) gave the greenlight for Covidex to be distributed as a supporting treatment for Covid-19.

While the public had already caught on to the usefulness of the drug, Jena Herbals Ltd the producer of the drug, still had to cross some Ts and dot some Is with the NDA.

In a an interview aired last week, Dr Patrick Ogwang said he is confident of the drug’s efficacy – it worked for him and several other people he tried it on, and was working to scale up production from the current 30,000  20 ml bottles daily.

"Going by Ogwang’s expertise and experience it is safe to say the science is proven, the trick now is to scale up production to get the medicine into as many hands as possible, which is where business management comes in....

The first order of business is for Jena Herbals to lock down the intellectual property that surrounds the formula for Covidex. 

Intellectual property is a real asset on a company’s books. Like any other property this can be sold, leased or mortgaged to generate income for the company. And like any other property needs to be protected from people who want to steal or abuse it.

"Given the real need around the pandemic – there are currently  at least 12 million active cases worldwide, the covidex intellectual property needs to be secured internationally....

 The enormity and cost of this task is such that the government needs to  be involved, if only as a way for creating global market access for the drug.

Already President Yoweri Museveni has pledged that his government will help with funds for expansion.

The business acumen surrounding Jena Herbals will determine whether they can – as their founder wishes, provide this good to the widest public.

It is safe to say that Jena Herbals was unknown to most people until now. The challenge of scaling up production to even a million doses a day will invariably require more resources – financial, human resource and even land and a dramatic improvement in management. It is one thing to run a 30,000 bottle a day production line and quite another to run multiple production lines in multiple locations around the world.

Of course if they secure the drug patents they can license bigger pharmaceutical concerns –CIPLA comes to mind, to help in the wider distribution of Covidex.

Beyond what government is willing to provide financially, which is a drop in the bucket, to tap into the trillions of dollars of funding sloshing around the world a restructuring of the company to reflect this new reality is imperative.

There are basically two kinds of financing that can take  Jena Herbals to the next level – debt and equity financing. Each has its pros and cons and its likely that Jena Herbals will need to use a combination of both to further its ambitions to get its treatment into every covid sufferer’s hand.

In the wider world there are people specialised in financing pharmaceutical developments and these maybe the best to help, not just any Tom, Dick and Harry with a few billions shillings.

In both cases, given the huge funding they will require they will need to convince funders that their ownership of the relevant intellectual properties are ironclad – would make no sense to put money in the business and then the next day the most valuable property is pulled out from under their feet, that they can indeed ramp production of the drug and finally that the investors will see a return on their investment.

On a national strategic level, government needs to secure supplies of the trees responsible for the active ingredient of Covidex. A statutory instrument banning the cutting down of the tree may a good start and incentivising tree farmers to start planting the valuable tree may be another. It was good to hear though that Jena Herbals is working on regenrating the active ingredient using tissue cultures, that would spare the widespread cutting down of these trees. While its only the bark that is required in some cases, don’t put it past us to hack down whole trees to harvest the bark.

"It also make sense to raise the secuirty status around the plant and the Dr Ogwang himself. Billions of dollars have been sunk into the Covid-19 fight, which money may go up in smoke if Covidex gets wider acceptance....

BOOK REVIEW: BUILT TO SELL

AUTHOR: JOHN WARRILLOW

Why do most people go into business? To earn an income or t o increase their income. For the latter type the business is a side pursuit to their job. What happens when the business makes more money than you have imagined in the first case or gets in the way of your main job, in the latter case? This is the beginning of the end.

In the former case the owner pushes up his living costs at the expense of the business and in the latter case the business owner decides in favour of keeping his job and the certain income that comes with it, and folds the business.

In “Built to Sell” author John Warrillow suggests an alternative, What if you built your company in such a way that you could sell it? That would mean for our first business owner, when he starts making too much money there is a process of investment of those additional funds to increase the value of the company and make it more sellable or in the second case the businessowner can sell his side hustle rather than just fold it.

"If we learnt how to build our businesses for sale – even if we never want to sell them, it will also ensure their sustainability and longevity....

The number is that barely one in a 100 companies in Uganda live to see their fifth birthday. But someone pointed out to me that is never the end of the business owner who just goes ahaead and opens another business. No wonder we are among the most entrepreneurial country in the wolrd.

So the author using a fictional narration a la Rich Dad, Poor Dad, begins with the businessowner who is stressed out and wants to sell his business. Unfortunately despite having buit it for five years, the way in which it is structured, with him as the center of gravit of the business, means it is worth nothing. A business is not the buildings, cars and machinery but the systems that take labour, capital and land and convert them into saleable products, that’s what investors are buying. 

The book therefore is how he restructures his business to make it saleable.

If there is only one quote to take away from the book it is “You should always run a company as if it will last forever, and yet you should also strive constantly to maximise its value, building in the qualities that allow it to be sold at any moment fro the highest price buyers are paying for businesses like yours.”

If you building it to live for ever you are unlikely to raid the till every Friday evening and to maximise its value the author urges that you focus  your offerings, build a sales force and a management team. Essentially build a company that can go on with out you. Think about it, no one wants to by a business where the star of the team is living, the value is that the functions of the company have been institutionalised, that you can place anyone in charge and the system will still work, that is where the value is.

Think of any business and the trouble they go through in the transition from the original founder to the next generation. The figure was that there was only one company with indegenous founders that has transitioned from one generation to the next in the last 50 years. This was true ten years ago and is probably still largely true.

What we are talking about  is a mindset change from subsistence, working to support your family and you to commercialisation, where you build a business to take advantage of market opportunities in a sytematic way...

 Easier said than done. It requires business owners to not see themselves as working in the business but rather working on the business. How do you tell the carpenter, who built his workshop from the ground up to stop working on the workshop floor with the th other carpenters step back, cretae a sales generation system, build and manage a team, who in turn manage the carpenters? You can say the same for the butcher, the farmer or the florist.

"We are still a very agrarian society where hard work is measured more by the sweat on your brow and the dirt on your hands. This book is saying business owners need to shift towards creating the intellectual property that is the business...

The book is a must read for every one in business, those going into the business and those who have been burned by a prior business but what to get back into it. It encourages a major mind shift which if achieved could reduce the attrition rate of our businesses. 

Of course the everyday challenges of business mean that not every thong will go to plan, but it does not hurt for businessmen to have a basic business model on which to overlay their experience, at least it will offer them a better chance than before at success.

As it is now even the MBAs among us blunder into business and hope for the best. This book might help in reducing that uncertainity.

Available on Amazon.

CASH BETTER THAN POSHO AND BEANS ANY DAY

Last week Prime Minister Robinah Nabanjja announced that this time around the government was going to give cash hand outs to the most vulnerable, unlike the last lock down when the government dished out posho and beans.

This was a welcome announcement in light of how shoddily the food distribution happened last time, but also because it makes good economic and dare I say, political sense.

Social security payments really kicked off after the second world war in Europe. A lot of Europe’s industrial base was flattened and needed to be revived quickly to give those economies half a chance of getting back on their feet.

Aid from America under the Marshall plan worked, helping to restore Europe’s industrial base. England only recently paid it off in full. However, the mass market that was needed to sustain these industries was not there as most were out of work or barely getting back on their feet.

Government’s then decided to design social safety nets, which catered for among other things unemployment benefits.

"With money in their pockets people went out to buy products, allowing industry to expand and employ more people. Despite greater affluence the social security nets have stayed largely in place to ensure “no one is left behind”...

During the pandemic cash handouts were seen in the US and Europe too.

The same logic should apply to support the cash hand outs to the most vulnerable during this lock down in Uganda.  

From the start one might be in need during the lockdown but it may not be for food. I might have access to my gardens or other sources of food and therefore my challenge is not feeding my family and I.

But also it has been shown that at the bottom of society’s pyramid, people are more likely to spend for consumption than to invest.

So the billions that would have been paid out to a handful of connected posho and beans hawkers, would better serve the economy if they were put in people’s hands. If a person got his sh25,000 handout he would run out to buy soap, charcoal, salt or even food from the nearby market, which money the shopkeeper will use to order more stock, pay his workers and utilities and on and on it would go. A real trickle down.

However, the big distributors who were paid last time were paid through the bank and probably kept their earning in the bank and since the banks were not lending that money got stuck there. Or even if they went out and made some purchases of a new car or a house or land, you can not compare the ripple effect to that of giving your tom, dick and harry hard cash.

In the former case a minute section of society benefits, while in the latter case you can have society wide benefits.

The prime minister also announced that they were contemplating paying the money by mobile money. Which came under a lot of criticism from the usual suspects. 

"It is actually a very efficient, transparent and traceable way of not only determining vulnerability, but also getting the money to those in most need...

Of course not everybody has a mobile phone, but with this one method you will have got to a significant number of people, for a fraction of the cost of sending trucks laden with beans out into the country side. For the others the LC networks can be employed as have other networks like the Social Assistance Grants for Empowerments (SAGE), a government program for aid to the elderly.

Most of the critics shook their heads at the suggestion because they know what happens when government technocrats come into contact with funds meant for the poor, or any funds for that matter. And they will not be wrong. But better to have a system which has a better chance of making real change than one, which does not but the funds will still be stolen anyway.

But staying on the subject of social safety nets, the high cost of intensive care has come into sharp focus in recent weeks. People who have never been admitted to hospital for anything worse than childbirth, are in shock at the millions of shillings they are being forced to fork out to settle their bills. Worse still if the patient dies.

Government has focussed on providing basic health care – and not very well, and done little to nothing in the way of providing  nationwide intensive care.

Government will protest that last part, but the proof is there for every body to see. There is no way the private hospitals would get away with the charges they have been asking, if government had enough capacity to counter these price gougers.

"It was all ok as long as the big shots in government could fly out at will and have their bills paid by the taxpayers – per diems and all, but now the chicken have come home to roost...

Hopefully now we will take a sharper look at our health system. It is not by accident that Cuba has a better health system than even the US, a decades long embargo of the small Caribbean island made it necessary.

As for those hospitals that have deliberately taken advantage of this crisis to fatten their margins unreasonably, the lightening that will strike you down is still doing press ups.

OF THE EURO 2020 AND COVIDEX

Ever since the World Cup in 1982 I have waited with bated breath for the soccer’s biggest bonanza’s brought to us live on TV.

First it was only the World Cup and Africa Cup of Nations then the Euros, the Olympics and now the Copa America.

With age of course my enthusiasm has waned. But this last week I found myself back in that mode with the European football championships, UEFA Euro 2020, because of the new lock down.

As a result of the Covid-19 pandemic this year’s Euro 2020 are not only unique for coming a year later than scheduled, but also because it is being played across 11 countries, unlike in the past when one country hosted the whole tournament.

The stadium crowds are back, depending on which country the match is being played in stadiums are nearly full or up to one third full. And horror of horrors in some of the stadiums there are people not wearing masks.

I kind of worked out that in those countries its possible most if not all their nationals are vaccinated.

"According to online statistics by earlier this week in the European Union at least 74 percent of its population has received one of two jabs of the Covid-19 vaccine. The UK alone has vaccinated all its population and then some, at 109 percent for the same measure....

The  equivalent figure for Africa was 3.47 percent and for Uganda an even more dismal 1.82 percent.

Which brings me nicely around to the controversy surrounding  Professor Patrick Ogwang’s Covidex “cure” for Covid-19.

Two weekends ago the word went around that the aforementioned drug was available in specific pharmacies around the Kampala. Serpentine lines, often reserved for certain churches, were suddenly seen outside some of the pharmacies, with stocks running out as soon as they hit the shelves.

The National Drug Authority (NDA), which is charged with regulating drugs in the country, came out days later to disown the drug arguing that it had not gone through the necessary authorizations to be made public, effectively banning it.

In the context of the desperation that had come with the spike in Covid-19 infections, the NDA can be forgiven for being behind the curve. It did not help their case in the public’s eye that Professor Ogwang is a respected researcher in herbal medicine, having developed several herbal remedies in the past that had been cleared by the NDA.

That brings us to a new term that has entered our language along with “social distancing” and “flattening the curve”, which is “vaccine nationalism”. Richer countries, which incidentally were worst hit by the pandemic last year, booked millions of doses of vaccines from several that were still in development. Their prescience paid off this year, hence allowing them to manage the massive roll out as described above within months of the vaccines going into production.

The challenge is that many of these countries – England for instance have the first right to purchase enough vaccine to cover their own populations many times over. This has the unhappy effect of leaving the poorer countries without chance of vaccinating their populations adequately soon –  the earliest by 2024 by certain accounts...

We have seen in Uganda that our initial one million doses are done and next week we start with the 175,000 doses that came in last week, with preference for those who already had their first shot.

In light of this, the case of professor Ogwang can not be treated as business as usual. While we may argue about why Professor Ogwang did not go through the stipulated procedure as he knows he should, there is a strong case for fast tracking his and any other drug under test. That does not mean allowing it through, but making sure it meets the minimum criteria to be rolled out to the population, especially since the claim is it has preventative qualities as well.

We will not be the only ones doing it. Western government fast tracked the production of vaccines against Covid-19 last year, while countries like China and Russia have developed their own vaccines, which while all not cleared by the World Health Organisation (WHO) seemed to have brought the pandemic under control there.

The reason the Covid-19 vaccines were rushed out is because the west was hit particularly badly by the pandemic. We have lived with malaria, TB and diarrheal diseases for ages because they do not command the same attention in the west.

This should be a lesson for us. We have to develop our own capacity to research and develop, not only drugs but other appropriate technologies for ourselves, because no one else will do it for us.

Mask up. Social distance. Wash your hands. And go get vaccinated.

PROOFING OUR BUSINESSES FOR THE LOCK DOWN

As you read this we may be in another hard lock down or not. However even the limited lock down calls for businesses to be more prudent and customer centric.

Taking lessons from the last hard lock down and from the last 12 months, here in no order of merit are some tips for business to stay afloat. 

1. Payment systems should be up and running

The idea is make it as convenient for your customer to pass their money to you. Having a registered mobile money payment option or visa point can make the difference between clients doing business with you or not, especially as they may be doing it for home because of the lock down or for fear of getting covid-19. They do not have hard cash but they can pay. And by the way, studies have shown people spend more off electronic payment systems than if they were passing on cash. Not to mention that holding cash now more than ever carries with it some serious health risks. So be smart and get your payment systems up and running. 

2. Invest in delivery service

This should be a no brainer by now, offer your clients the option to deliver to their door. Either you link up with networks that are providing this service or better still invest in it so as to provide a personal touch to your clients. And we the clients will gladly pay extra for the service, because we may have spent that amount or more to drive out to you. With little to no walk-in traffic this is where the  smart money is headed.

3. Know where your customers are

Related to the last point, know where your customers live. Sometimes we are home and want some thing but forgo it because of the hustle of going out to do it ourselves.  But if our favourite shop can deliver to our door with out the pain of having to direct them it would be such a relief. Assuming you have been building relationships with your best people get their physical addresses, dedicate a phone to taking delivery requests and your clients may very well kiss the ground on which your shop is.

4. Invest in smart phones

Again related to the last point, get your delivery people smart phones and go a step further and teach them how to read google maps. This business of the delivery man needing directions to your home because he can not follow the directions to your location is not on. This will also mean an extra cost in data and chargig services but look at these as investments rather then just costs. I now have a healthy interpretation of map reading in these lock down times, I thought it was obvious to all who had been to school, but clearly not.

5. Mend fences with your banker

Your bank maybe the difference between you going under or staying afloat in these hard times. If you have been banking with your banker for a considerable period, he has a good idea of your cashflow situation and can provide some working capital facilities that can tide you over some rough patches. A business can have full shelves and open every day but close in an instance, because the time between getting paid and meeting your obligations – delayed payments from clients versus immediate payments to your suppliers, can not allow you to operate.

6. Cut costs to the bone

My favourite American Warren Buffett says that cutting costs should be like breathing, it should be unconscious behaviour. There are two ways to spend money, eating it with no chance of return or to invest it with hope of return sometime in the future. In business terms it often means reinvesting profits or passing them on to the owner to blast away. The businesses that have shown resilience are those that have invested in themselves and built up reserves over the years. It may be too late to build reserves, but to give yourself half a chance of survival you need to take a microscope to your costs and hack away at any excesses mercilessly. The trick is not to hack costs that affect service delivery – often labour costs but to cut those that take away from the business – your girlfriend’s credit, for instance.

Believe it or not however bad the covid-19 situation gets there will be businesses that survive or even thrive. Chances are they may be the minority, why not give yourself a chance to be in that winners’ circle by focusing on your clients and keeping your cashflolw situation healthy?

NRM CEMENTING THE WOMEN VOTE

By the time of writing this parliament was in its final day of approving President Yoweri Museveni’s 80- person cabinet.

This cabinet will prove a landmark in coming years especially because we have women filling in the positions of vice president and prime minster, Jessica Alupo and Robinah Nabbanja but also because women booked  four in ten of the ministerial positions, a first in Uganda’s history.

This is a high point in women’s politics, which while we had women ministers in previous governments, the flood gates of women ministers were flung open in the last 35 years.

The critics of the NRM would not like to hear that, and for good reason.

Historically, not only in Uganda, patrilineal society has shut women out of politics. That is why in the 21st century the US is celebrating their first female vice president.

The nature of the NRM’s bush war however made it impossible to ignore the women’s contribution and hence rig politics to ensure they got a place at the table.

When you are in guerilla struggle it is literally all hands on deck, every body counts, you do not have the luxury of recruiting only men in your ranks. Women finding themselves in the rebel ranks would have been dead weight weren’t they able to make themselves useful.

Secondly,

in order to swell its ranks when it came out of the bush, the NRM sought to incorporate groups previously marginalised...

In 1989 the NRM introduced the women’s female district representative position which added a 39 new seats to the National Resistance Council (NRC), the parliament of the time.

While some people criticised this as tokenism, the  women saw it as a foot in a door and have guarded it jealously ever since.

Other initiatives like the affirmative action for women joining university, has ensured that there is a continuous pipeline of women into politics.

As a result, a female politician does not draw double takes from a population who now see women as real contenders in politics.

And why the critics of the NRM do not like this, the ruling NRM has all the cards in its pocket. It can do some political grandstanding by appointing women to cabinet, has the most district women MPs and can appoint women to any number of high offices in government, the opposition does not have as much leeway. 

"The double benefit to the NRM too, is that most women appointed have performed well, even when more has been expected of them than their male colleagues... .

So its very easy for the NRM to portray itself as the champion of the women vote.

Against the background of the NRM’s dismal performance in the Buganda region in the last election, you can see how the importance of women constituency almost overnight.

The political calculation is that by elevating women to positions of authority, women around the country may see the NRM as the only party that can speak to their issues, if not fully but better than the others.

And its not that NRM has been a good benefactor, in private many women think they are just being used, but its that the ruling party has given them a real chance of effecting change. While the sexists may see it as window dressing, they underestimate the power of example and the possibilities opened up to the millions of young girls around the country in seeing women in power.

Beyond the opposition being unable to make such high profile appointments,

"this political sleight of hand speaks to two political acts we are holding our breaths for – the 2026 presidential elections and the Museveni succession issue....

For the second, the constitution is clear that in the event the president can not carry on, the vice president can takes his place. This may take added importance because no one thought Edward Sekandi had a chance of ascending to the helm of Ugandan politics. Whether Alupo has a chance or not, is less about her and more about the women’s lobby who would be easier to mobilise nationwide than any other constituency tribal or religious. The example of Tanzania’s female Samia Suluhuh Hassan is useful, but not as powerful as the thinking, now ingrained in Uganda that women can get the job done.

As for the 2026 presidential elections, what this cabinet list may very well show in coming years is that the NRM and Museveni in particular may have caught a second wind. 

Assuming the now powerful women execute their duties to the letter, not only will the NRM benefit from a job well done and hence ride on the success of these women but there will always be a feeling that the NRM will al ways do right by them.

Of course the NRM need be aware that when you give them an inch they will take a mile.

"The women of Uganda will not settle for a reversion to the old ways they will always expect to be represented meaningfully at the high table of this country’s politics, as is their right as the more populous of the genders...

Barring any disasters this cabinet may have sealed the 2026 presidential election.

TO BELIEVE OR NOT BELIEVE THE BUDGET

In last week’s budget we heard that the economy grew by 3.3 percent in this financial year compared to last year when the economy grew by 3.0 percent.

This is pitiful given that, prior to the covid-19 pandemic it was projected that this year the economy would grow by more than 6.0 percent.

During the Absa Bank Uganda post budget forum held on Friday it was interesting to hear various experts note that while the economy had been badly hit it was still showing growth, which has a lot to do with the way our economy is structured.

"It helps of course that we can feed ourselves as a nation. Despite the restrictions on movement and congregation the agriculture sector kept us afloat in this important aspect...

But beyond feeding us our farms also produce our biggest tradables among ourselves and in the region.

Commissioner General John Musinguzi who was a panelist at the Absa Bank forum, which was themed “Implications of the budget proposals on trade and manufacturing” said the two sectors accounted for just over half of the revenue collections.

While both sectors took a hit in the last year they still dominate the revenue collections, which suggests that it was wise for government not to restict the movement of cargo, never mind that truck drivers caused us a lot of grief in hte first pandemic wave.

While Absa mananging director Mumba Kalifungwa along with others were glad to hear governmnet maintained its commitment on the infrastructure development, Damalie Ssali, coutry director at Trademark East Africa however, pointed out that we also need to improve the roads within the country.

She reported that

Uganda loses $1.5m (Sh5.2b) daily from cars idling in Kampala traffic...

They are all connected – agriculture, higher trade volumes and manufacturing revenues and the traffic jams of Kampala.

The losses due to traffic are not just numbers, somebody has to pay for them. Beyond the increase in hypertension among drivers,  its the poorest who bear the burden of these losses in terms of poor service delivery. Because that is money that is disposable income that would have gone into buying goods and services, increasing demand for our products, keeping people in jobs or creating more altogether.

I suspect even the $1.5m daily loss is understated.

The finance ministry’s director of budget Ken Mugambe in speaking about the parish development model said at least sh5trillion has been earmarked for the programs, flowing down to the 10,000-plus parishes. While there are seven pillars of the model, government will focus on three – financial inclusion, beefing up the parish administration structures and data collection.

On one hand people see this as an attempt o byass the middlemen and get resources nearer the household, the critics however, point to the inadequate administration structures as the loophole, which will not only frustrate the program’s inception but also provide an avenue to enrich a few bureaucrats who take advantage of the confusion.

Other critics wonder whether the same work can not be executed through existing government structures and that the parish development model may be a duplication of functions.

"The intention is good, it may be failed by the implementation...

In the parish development model among other things they have provided for extension services, irrigation and bulking of products, which are useful if we are to bring agroindustrialisation into reality.

The truth is

while we can feed ourselves as a country, we do not produce enough surpluses to sustain a robust agro-industrial complex....

Production in the agricultural sector has to make quantum leaps before agorindustrialisation and its benefits of improved farmgate prices, higher export receipts and job creation can be a reality.

Increased agricultural production can increase jobs by more than the million jobs government looks to create by building industrial parks and free trade zones.

Increased production requires a market to absorb it. The East African Community now account for about a quarter of all our trade and the promise of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area look set to snap our increased production. But Uganda Manafacturer’s Association (UMA)  executive director Daniel Birungi, worried that if we do not have robust trade dispute resolution mechanisms as we have seen wth our dealings with Rwanda, where our common border has b een closed for two years, what hope is there for trading efficiently with countries far afield on the continent?

"So while we are feeling the pain of the covid pandemic in our pockets, continued macro economic stability, the improved business environment due to infrastructural improvements and the promise of increased agricultural productivity give us hope for the future....

Time will tell.