UNLOCK UGANDA'S TREASURE CHEST

It came around the corner to face us head on. There was no room on the road for both of us, so one of us had to give way. Our guide was very helpful, providing the detail that in the Murchison Falls National park, the biggest elephants weigh up to 10 tonnes!

My natural instinct was to shift the mini-van into reverse and move as far away from the lumbering hulk as I could.

Our guide and driver counseled that it would be suicide and proceeded to stop the van and rev the engine. After about a minute or two, which seemed like hours, the elephant stopped in its tracks and veered off into the bush.

At some point in the 60s and 70s, there were more than 16,000 elephants in the Murchison Falls National Park alone. The instability of the last 30 years, however, saw that figure fall to below half - but is now recovering.

Hippo, buffalo, giraffe, zebra and a variety of other game abound. The Madhvani Group is looking to take advantage of this revitalisation of Uganda’s largest national park with the opening of their new Chobe Safari Lodge, a $13m investment along the River Nile. It joins Para Lodge and Mweya in Queen Elizabeth as part of the group’s portfolio.

“A fusion of local materials blended with modernity has created a signature luxury safari style that is unique to Chobe Lodge. We are confident this will become the gem in Uganda’s tourism crown and one of East Africa’s top holiday destinations,” said the group’s director of tourism operations, Mani Khan.

On a boat ride up the Murchison falls, one could not help but wonder at how under-exploited our natural resources are. The Government’s role in the realisation of our full potential needs to be re-examined.

Through the privatisation of state enterprises and liberalisation of the economy, it was hoped we would be able to attract private capital and unlock local entrepreneurship.

The policy has worked in the context of the circumstances in which it was applied, but given that we continue to sleep on billions of dollars of unexploited natural potential, one has to wonder whether we have not hit a ceiling with that policy.

A U-turn to the day when the Government was involved in business in ways we knew should be discouraged.

That leaves us with the challenge of understanding the investor mind and providing the enabling environment that will attract them.

Nirvana for the businessman is a low cost environment with a growing market for their products and services.
By keeping costs low, profitability is almost certain an ever-increasing demand coming with the promise of business growth. The Government has a critical role in making both these conditions come through.

Lowering costs would involve guaranteeing safety of life and property, eliminating corruption, improving transport, energy, education and health infrastructure.

There also has to be extra efforts to market the country beyond sending delegations abroad and hoping for good press.

The quality of the people will increase their capacity to earn, and therefore, improve the effective demand of our market.

By focusing on lowering the cost of doing business, enterprises will thrive, jobs will be created, taxes collected and these, directed back into lowering the cost of doing business. All very obvious textbook stuff, you say.

The development of nations follows a simple formula: that your expenditure should shift increasingly towards investment and away from consumption.

It cost us sh500b at last count, to host CHOGM, a four-day event that benefited a small group of people and therefore a loss to the nation. That same money would have had wide reaching benefits if we had for instance, offered to carry the exchange risk of our industries and service providers.

As a country, we are not unlike the poor man who sleeps on a chest of gold, refusing or unwilling to open it because of some strange fixation with it remaining closed.

DELAY IN OIL EXPLORATION WELCOME

Last week our very own locally produced soap opera went into an ad break.

The show which trickled into our collective conscience as a rumour at the beginning of the last decade of oil finds in western Uganda, steadily gathered momentum three to five years ago as front page headlines of oil finds literally rained on us, this was proof of billions of barrels of oil under our very feet. We were rich!

But the plot begun to falter last year when oil explorer Heritage opted to sell their interests in the oil fields, after all they are an exploration company and their job had been done.

Hollywood could not have conjured the cast of characters – bickering government officials, Italians dressed to the nines offering a deal we could not resist, a motley crew of journalists dizzy from being bounced off one side or the other and a hodge podge of do-gooders; MPs, environmentalists, NGOs all also trying to muscle in on the action.

Tullow made a last ditch offer and paid $1.5b for Heritage’s stake in the oil fields to snatch it from Italian firm ENI.

This Kinauganda production would have ended there – and we would have all bumped off (potholes) into the sunset were it not for the small little issue of $404m in taxes Uganda felt was due from the transaction.

But wait a minute.

Heritage who were liable to pay tax had already fled,

“Having offloaded its stakes in the Lake Albert fields, Heritage declared it would not be paying $404m capital gains tax due on the deal. (Heritage CEO Tony) Buckingham … cleared his men out of Uganda with military precision,” the Financial Times wrote this week leaving Uganda empty handed and Tullow holding the bag.

Like a slighted lover Uganda lashed back repossessing the most lucrative oil fields from Tullow and hinting that since she did not recognise the transaction between Heritage and Tullow even one other oil field’s fate was up in the air.

That is the current state of play.

Oil was supposed to be gushing out of our wells, its proceeds sealing our potholes, furnishing our primary schools and stocking our hospitals in 2009. The latest is that the earliest we can expect to see those miracles

In hindsight we see that Uganda was truly out of its depth and the current impasse, which has put pause to progress is blessing in disguise. Maybe now we can take a step back and re-examine ourselves – what do want to achieve and how do we want to achieve that, set up the necessary conditions before we can jump back into the fray.

Of course people in the know argue that Uganda has a very progressive oil policy (which somehow did not work as seen above) and that we will not know how ready we are until oil production begins. The suggestion being that we should jump into the pool and find out whether we can swim once inside.

"Abraham Lincoln once said that if he was given eight hours to fell a tree he would spend the first seven hours sharpening the axe. Uganda should do likewise...

The risk that we can go the way of Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea or any number of countries that have squandered their natural resource in a blaze of corruption, consumption and white elephants is a very real one for Uganda regardless of what our government says.

To begin with let’s look at how much money will accrue to Ugandans, as it stands now taxes and a few shillings on the side seem to be all. But that need not be the case.

In the Middle East and Asian governments negotiate a stake in the oil producing companies so that beyond taxes they can also benefit from retaining a share of the profits. At a later stage these same stakes can be floted on the Uganda Securities Exchange so regular Ugandans benefit too from the spoils of the land.

The government’s insistence that a refinery should built in the country is a laudable one and one that should be supported by all of us. Refining our own oil rather than expect crude oil can spawn beyond the oil refining, ferterlizer, pharmaceutical and other petrochemical industries.

The feasibility of this endeavour is still under review but commonsense dictates that we extract maximum benefit from our own resources.

But because even our billions of barrels will run out sooner than later, that’s why we need to plan assiduously for this resource. The lull in excitement – until the next episode, is time we badly need to prepare.

Warren Buffett's 'business gene' built an empire that changed history

As he celebrates his 80th birthday, Warren Buffett shows no sign of slowing down. Stephen Foley looks at the secret behind the philanthropist's global success.

Warren Buffett has never revealed when he had his ego surgically removed, but it must have been at a very young age. As he turns 80 today, the billionaire investment guru remains as cheerfully good-hearted, funny and self-deprecating as ever – so much so, in fact, that it is easy to miss just how significant a figure he is in the history of American business. He has been lucky beyond his dreams, he said in his more recent letter to shareholders in his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway. He and his business partner, Charlie Munger, were born with "a 'business' gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to that experienced by many people who contribute as much or more to our society's well-being". Indeed. His net worth of $47bn (£30bn) makes him the third-most wealthy person on the planet, according to Forbes magazine.

Forgive the highfalutin claims (Mr Buffett would choke on them), but while other corporate legends might spend their 80th birthday surveying a long career that peaked decades before, Mr Buffett celebrates his at the height of his powers, with a reputation that is stronger than ever, and cementing a legacy that will live for generations. Why?

He has created the fourth-largest company in America

Berkshire Hathaway is the name of a small Massachusetts textile firm that Mr Buffett acquired in the Sixties. By that time he had already been investing for half his life. The son of an Omaha stockbroker and politician, he had first expressed that business gene in his teens by installing pinball machines in local venues. By the time he alighted on Berkshire, he had established a strong local following for his investing nous, using principles he learned at the knee of Ben Graham, the father of value investing, who tutored Mr Buffett at Columbia University and gave him an early job.

While Berkshire itself eventually failed along with most of the US textile industry, Mr Buffett had long since turned the company into a mini-conglomerate, adding businesses in insurance and retail, and stakes in all-American staples such as Coca-Cola and McDonald's. Today it is one of the world's largest reinsurers and owns the largest US railways business, and has a market value of $200bn, eclipsed only by Exxon-Mobile, Apple and Microsoft. General Electric, the icon among American conglomerates, is worth only $160bn.

He has educated generations of investors

Mr Buffett is a teacher, by explication and by example. His homespun investment philosophy delivered in pithy bon mots – "Rule No 1, don't lose money. Rule No 2, don't forget Rule No 1" – and his determination to avoid the investment fads of Wall Street and the business school crowd won him the moniker the Oracle of Omaha and inspired a whole industry of Buffett-watching. You can find dozens of books from "How to build a business Warren Buffett would buy" to "The Tao of Warren Buffett".

But his own legacy will be those annual letters to shareholders, where he teases out the difference between short-term accounting tricks and long-term value, and makes good jokes. Meanwhile, a record 40,000 Berkshire shareholders now attend the annual meeting in Omaha, for a one in 1,500 chance of getting an answer from their guru to a question.

He proves that human relations matter in business

Author Andy Kilpatrick – whose contribution to Buffettology is Of Permanent Value: The Story of Warren Buffett, which runs to 2,000 pages over three volumes and was described by the man himself as "puny, but at least it's a start" – says Mr Buffett's winning personality is a key to his financial success.

"You can't help but be attracted to him because of the way he speaks and the way he writes. His sense of humour is what makes him different from other brilliant businessmen. It gets him in a lot of doors.

"And he can judge people well – he can look and someone and size them up – a lot of his deals are handshake deals, done by looking someone in the eye and judging whether they just want the money or whether they really want to run the business at Berkshire. That human factor has become very important, and if you look at the top of Berkshire, seldom has there been any firings, or even anyone leaving. Buffett is the glue that holds all these human relations together."

He helped saved the world economy

Under-appreciated is the role that Berkshire played in keeping the world economy from the brink during the panic of 2008, in the weeks after the failure of Lehman Brothers. "We poured $15.5 billion into a business world that could otherwise look only to the federal government for help," Mr Buffett pointed out, in a single reference in his 2009 letter. "Berkshire was a supplier of liquidity and capital to the system, not a supplicant."

Berkshire pumped $5bn into Goldman Sachs and $3bn into General Electric when they were desperate for funds. He extracted a price, of course, but Mr Buffett's vote of confidence helped stave off disaster for two companies whose collapse would have had unthinkable consequences.

And now he is raising the bar for philanthropy

A century ago, John D Rockefeller, after a pioneering life in business, was revolutionising philanthropy, establishing the modern principles for targeted donations and well-endowed foundations. Mr Buffett's friend Bill Gates (with whom he has long tussled for title of world's richest man) has retired from Microsoft to concentrate on his own foundation. Since Mr Buffett does not plan to retire ("I plan to work past 100," he said this weekend), he is blazing a trail in philanthropy in a different way.

In 2006, he pledged to give 90 per cent of his wealth away to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. With typical absence of ego, he said that the organisation was already doing more effective work in areas of health and education than any foundation with the Buffett name on could hope to achieve on that scale. "What can be more logical, in whatever you want done," he asked at the time, "than finding someone better equipped than you are to do it?"

Now, he is exhorting other billionaires to pledge similarly to give away a majority of their wealth, and has induced 40 of America's richest so far to agree. It's only fair, he says – and his three children will be just fine. As he wrote in 2006: "They've had a gigantic headstart in a society that aspires to be a meritocracy. Dynastic mega-wealth would further tilt the playing field that we ought to be trying instead to level."

EVEN BECKHAM WATCHES HIS MONEY

Last week it was announced that soccer’s David Beckham and family had been advised to cut back on their staff.

According to the report the Beckhams have had to layoff 14 workers at three of their four residencies.

“David and Victoria are multimillionaires but that doesn’t mean they have to waste money – and they were hemorrhaging,” a friend told reporters.

But wait a minute.

In July, Forbes magazine listed Beckham as the best paid footballer in the world racking in at least $43.7m last year in salary and endorsement fees. To put in perspective the nearly sh100b he earned last year is almost the amounted our own Stanbic bank counted as profit after tax last year.

It is almost inconceivable that Beckham can blow all his money and retire to a life of destitution, but as a friend of mine keeps saying, “There is no money that is too much to finish.”

It is useful to note, which expenses Beckham’s advisors have urged him to take a knife to – the staff expenses at his various mansions.

Beckham has earned top dollar all through his career but he is only 35, on the verge of retirement and likely to live past his 80th birthday, so his advisors are telling him to invest more while the going is good. The idea being, that when his earning power diminishes, seeing as it is based on his youthful good looks, he can sustain his current standard of living off the proceeds of his investments.

You can tell the potential or lack of thereof, of a person or company’s financial future by looking at their expenses.

An individual headed for a life of financial hardship has his expenses slanted towards consumption or instant gratification, while an individual with a chance of a bright financial future has his expenses biased more towards investment or delayed gratification.

An interesting survey was done of millionaires in the US in the 1980s, the results of which were published in the book “The Millionaire Next Door”, it showed for example that the average millionaire in America owned a car whose value was seven per cent of their net worth. If you think about it if this criteria was adhered to, to the letter in Uganda most of us would be riding bicycles or on foot.

What it means is that when you see a truly rich man own a luxury vehicle, it has barely dented his balance sheet as opposed to the rest of us whose cars constitute a significant part of our net worth. To try an emulate the lifestyles of the rich and famous is like trying to grow a tree by planting leaves.

Given our largely Christian backgrounds aspiring to wealth is generally frowned upon, so let us think about it another way – Let us all aspire to financial security in our lifetime.

Where financial security is the ability to live without a salary, only earning income from our investments, without compromising our current standard of living.

How do you do this starting right here, right now? Shift your expenses towards investment and away from consumption. It’s simple. The initial shift away from consumption will be hard – I need my daily beer or I have to have those shoes or what will people say if we do not go on our annual holiday… I said it was simple I did not say it would be easy.

The point is, as many pensioners have discovered to their peril, no one is going to maintain your current lifestyle for you.

And if Beckham who collects his salary twice year ( when you are collecting millions of dollars in salary you don’t get paid per month) is preparing for the future by shifting his expenditure away from consumption who are you and I not to do t he same.

15 Characteristics of Highly Successful Investors

They always invest with a planned exit strategy

“Go to the mouse you foolish investor and learn. A mouse never entrusts its life to only one hole.” — Ajaero Tony Martins

Successful investors know that there are always two sides to an investment. They know that the future is unpredictable so they prepare in advance for it. Average investors try to predict the future of their investments; they count their chickens before they are hatched. Successful investors do the opposite; they prepare for the best while still preparing for the worst.


15 Characteristics of Highly Successful Investors

UGANDA’S BUSINESSES NEED TO STEP UP THEIR GAME

Uganda’s business community is facing serious existential issues with the opening up the East African common market.

When the common market is in full flow people, goods and services will traverse the region without barriers. At a very basic level it means – in terms of goods and services, that goods that of better quality and are better value for money will compete with the best and worst, of what we have to offer.

Consumers do not have nationalistic considerations in their spending habits, we will buy what has shown to be good value in the past regardless of where it comes from.

First let’s make a distinction between patriots and nationalists. Both have a great love of their countries the difference is, that a nationalist thinks his country is better than all others while a patriot wants the best for his/her country.

So consumers may be patriots but they are not nationalistic – believing that their countries make the best products in the world, unless of course where that is true.

And hence Uganda Inc’s dilemma. It is already happening with Kenyan commodities making a big push in our market and vying more than favourably for shelf space with our very own. The knee jerk reaction is to say, “Shut them out while we develop capacity to compete on even footing.”

But that time is past. The competition is here and it is not just beating on the door, it has knocked the door down and now heading for pride of place at the head of the table.

Faced with this challenge Ugandan business has to be come more efficient.

Last week world reknown speaker Larry Hochman was in town at the invitation of the British Council to talk to businessmen and leaders about success in their respective enterprises.

The Success of any enterprise Hochman says, will depend on how central customer service, courageous leadership and talent management to the management’s thinking.

The customer is king is now cliché, but like all cliches they tend to get only lip service.

“Customer relations is the single most important ingredient for success, without putting the customer at the heart of every enterprise it is hard to be successful,” he said.

This linked invariably with leadership, which is “Courageous to take the actions to make any enterprise ever more responsive to its clients”

Hochman questioned the relevance of customer relations departments, as if customer care is the responsibility of one department and not the whole enterprise.

“We are in the information age, what that means that it gives people choice, power and control, the necessity to keep promises to the customers will be clear to leaders because the customer will punish them for talk and no action and they can spread the word,” he said.

His opinion on talent management would sound even more radical for our business leaders, “Your goal: To be an attractor of talent. All the best people should be knocking at your door and if they are not you should wonder.”

And understandably so. The leader can have the best vision centered around obsessive customer relations up and down the enterprise, “But if you don’t have the people to deliver the vision it does not matter.”

We treat our human resource like they are dispensable but a useful measure of the happiness of our customers can be established by judging the happiness of our workers, because our staff can only look out for the clients interests if theirs are being catered for adequately. And here he was not talking about pay but the whole environment in which our workers operate in.

If our business can work on this they might have a fighting chance, especially since the focus on these three things will ensure that our businesses can develop a unique value proposition.

“Customer relationships are the unique value your business will develop, it takes days, weeks, years to building relationships based on trust, relationships which cannot be replicated by anybody … of course it does no t take as long to jeopardize,” Hochman said.

Our businessmen will need to step up their games if they are not only to survive but to thrive in an increasingly hostile environment.

They will have to look beyond physical infrastructure – buildings, plant and machinery, to spur them on to success, but to the “soft-soft” issues of customer relations, leadership and talent management.

pbusharizi@newvision.co.ug

5 Money Rules for Pessimists

When it comes to personal finances, pessimism gets a bad rap. “The one exception where pessimists might have a leg up over optimists is money management,” says Colorado Springs, Colorado financial planner and CBS MoneyWatch blogger Allan Roth. “They worry more, so they tend to save more.”

Pessimists are also more cautious. In studies that looked at optimists, pessimists, and gambling tendencies (a good parallel to the stock market), researchers found that pessimists tend to bet less and expect less when the gaming isn’t going their way, so they lose less. That’s right, pessimists, fret not (if you can help it): Seeing the glass half-empty might net you a fuller glass at the end of the day. That’s because pessimists have some characteristics on their side, such as caution, that can translate into more stable financial portfolios and larger retirement nest eggs. If you’re a pessimist by nature, the key is to harness your realism — while tempering the negativity. Sure, it’s good to keep in mind that black swans occur and stock markets can crash, but it’s counterproductive to assume that no risky investments will ever pay off. Here are five rules to help:
1. Get Control of Your Fear

There’s a basic principle called loss aversion that influences our financial decisions: the high you get from winning isn’t as powerful as the low you feel from losing. This phenomenon is exacerbated for pessimists. “When losses happen, pessimists are miserable, and when gains happen, they’re not as happy as they think they will be,” says Dan Ariely, a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and author of The Upside of Irrationality. Pessimists should try to view risk as the cost of doing business, and remind themselves that it makes sense to take some risk. For example, consider all the probabilities when investing for retirement: The odds of the stock market going nowhere for 30 years are fairly low, while the odds of money markets lagging inflation over the next 30 years are fairly high.

2. Give Yourself Permission to Spend

“I have to tell my pessimist clients: You have permission to spend some of your money,” Roth says. “Even the ones with huge nest eggs are afraid they’ll wind up with nothing somehow.” There is a big difference between frugal living and withholding your spending to the point that your quality of life suffers. The huge nest egg when you’re 80 won’t wipe out the regret you feel for not taking those vacations you could have well afforded when you were 50. Set aside a cache of spending money — in a separate account even. Ignore that savings when it comes to calculating your future needs; that should help you get comfortable with the idea that you’ll be spending it.

3. Partner Up

“Having a financial companion to talk things over with can be really helpful,” says Moshe Milevsky, a finance professor at York University. Ideally, it’s someone who neither echoes your pessimism nor counters everything with optimism. Pessimists can really benefit from a neutral sounding board, whether it’s a spouse, friend, or financial planner.

4. Assess Your Insurance

“Pessimists tend to be over-insured, especially for life insurance,” Milevsky says. Those premiums can be wasted money if the value of your policy is out of line with your financial responsibilities. “Do a rational, analytic assessment of your insurance and what you’re spending in premiums,” he says. The point of life insurance is to provide your dependents with a replacement income stream if you should die. So buy enough insurance to cover their needs, nothing more.

The same is true for extended warranties, which tend to be expensive. They’re worth it sometimes — but not all of the time, especially since the chances of multiple items breaking at once is low. Channel your realism (not your negativity) to weigh the probabilities, and then self-insure by diverting the money you would otherwise have spent on warranties into a savings account instead.

5. Stop Watching Your Portfolio

“If you tend to only see the negative, don’t look too frequently at your investments because you will only be miserable,” Ariely says. Even more important, don’t be reactive. It goes back to loss aversion: Be careful of doing something spur of the moment (like pulling all of your money out of the stock market) because you want to avoid the misery you fear is coming. “It’s good to evaluate, but don’t evaluate based on emotion,” he says, especially if you’re in a doom and gloom mood. Instead, take the long view. If the market has just crashed, for example, ask yourself: a year or two after a market crash, is it usually higher or lower?